Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Trump Nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Seat

 The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose history of overcoming sexism in her career and her liberal jurisprudence during her 27 years on the Supreme Court made her a towering figure in the American legal community, threw another wrench in the American political world. Ginsburg, who died at 87 on September 18, had faced health challenges for several years before she succumbed to pancreatic cancer.

Trump nominated on Saturday federal Appeals Court Judge and legal scholar Amy Coney Barrett to fill her seat. In her acceptance speech for the nomination, Barrett cited Antonin Scalia, noted for his conservative views and originalist jurisprudence, as her greatest influence and has said that her views on constitutional interpretation are the same as his. If Barrett is confirmed, her presence on the court is expected to turn the court more to the right, with conservative-leaning justices holding a 6-3 majority.

Democrats have called for the nomination of a successor to be postponed until after the next president is elected, citing Republicans refusing to consider Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, after the death of Antonin Scalia.

 

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 

Coronavirus Cases Spike Across the US, World

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached 10 million this month as governments struggle to contain the spread of the deadly virus. The resulting infections have led to at least confirmed 500,000 deaths.

In the United States, the majority of states have reported a rising number of cases, with the only region spared from the uptick being the Northeast, which was most affected when the outbreak started in March and April. Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a large jump in cases, prompting state and local leaders to reinstitute certain control measures, such as closing bars, mandating mask wearing, and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Around one quarter of confirmed deaths worldwide have occurred in the United States, whose death toll currently stands at around 125,000. The worldwide number of deaths is likely higher than 500,000 because of underreporting and the suspiciously low numbers reported by the Chinese government, especially given China’s role as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Vice President Mike Pence has announced support for wearing masks in a recent interview with CBS News, though President Donald Trump himself has been ambivalent about encouraging masks and has not encouraged mask wearing mandates. Wearing surgical and cloth masks can reduce the spread of the virus to others if the wearer is sick, but has not been shown to offer significant protection to the wearer. The US government has encouraged protective N95 standard masks to be used only by health care professionals and other emergency responders. Notably, US health officials discouraged the purchase of N95 masks by individuals at the beginning of the outbreak, misrepresenting their effectiveness to the public, in an attempt to preserve them for health care workers.

Re-openings Continue as Coronavirus Continues to Strike

States across the US have begun or continued their efforts to re-open their economies while the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect thousands across the country and around the world. Politicians and health officials have cited a declining trend in new cases and the reduced threat of hospital overcrowding in allowing certain businesses to re-open, often at a reduced capacity. For example, restaurants in Texas were initially allowed to re-open at 25% capacity, with further increases scheduled.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have increased in Latin America, believed to be the next hotspot for the pandemic. Brazil’s dramatic increase has led US President Donald Trump to block entrance of those from Brazil into the US. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been criticized for not taking aggressive enough measures to fight the virus, as has Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Health officials in San Diego have said that nearly half of the new cases of the virus are related to recent border crossings, which have nominally been closed to regular visitors and only open to business.

General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.

Trump Approval Up, Biden Campaign Sidelined

President Trump’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since the start of his presidency. While it is still underwater, his favorable-unfavorable margin has shrunk to around –4, according to an aggregation by FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has largely remained on the sidelines since his string of primary victories earlier this month, effectively knocking out his sole challenger for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He had promised he would give regular updates and campaign speeches through videos produced at his home, though his shaky performance in these and in media interviews has discouraged further campaign media productions for now.

Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, with some saying the president’s response to the threat was delayed. Trump counters that the US response has been aggressive and that widespread testing has helped reduce the spread.

Trump’s approval for handling the coronavirus is positive, though lower than that of state and government responses.

Senate Continues with Impeachment Trial

UPDATE 1/31/20 9:51 PM EST: The Senate voted 51-49 to reject any additional witnesses in Trump's impeachment trial.

The US Senate took up the impeachment case against President Donald Trump this month, and is currently in the question-and-answer phase of the trial. This comes after the president's impeachment (similar to an indictment) by the US House of Representatives last month and the presentations both by the House managers, who argue for the president's removal from office, and the president's defense team.

The House impeachment managers, led by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) argued that Trump's actions on a phone call last year with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky constituted an impeachable offense after Trump asked Zelensky to open an investigation into the dealings of Hunter Biden, son of former Vice President and Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden. Witnesses allege that Trump planned to hold military aid to Ukraine, previously appropriated by Congress, unless the investigation occurred. The aid was released, though only after a whistleblower reported it. Democrats called such the alleged act an abuse of power in an attempt to hurt a domestic political rival, and also added another article of impeachment alleging obstruction as Trump did not allow key administration figures, such as acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, to testify.

The president's defense team countered the arguments put forth by House Democrats, saying that the president never threatened the Ukrainian officials directly with withholding aid, and such an act is not even an impeachable offense as no written statute exist outlawing it. Senators will soon vote whether to allow more witnesses, such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton, to testify. Bolton is believed to have first-hand knowledge of the decisions Trump was making in the matter. Republican defenders of the president have countered that they will ask Joe and Hunter Biden to testify and answer questions about alleged profiting from Joe Biden's political office. Joe Biden denies the allegations and had originally said he will not comply with a Senate subpoena, though he has since said he will testify if compelled by a lawful Senate order.

Trump Impeached by House, Faces Trial in Senate

President Donald Trump this month became the third president in US history to be impeached, with a majority of the House of Representatives voting to impeach him on two charges, one for abuse of power regarding his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the request to investigate Hunter Biden, and one for obstruction of Congress for not providing documents from the White House in the course of the inquiry.

 The vote was near party line, with nearly all Democrats voting for both charges and no Republicans voting for either. Independent Justin Amash of Michigan, who broke from the Republican Party earlier this year after he came out in favor of impeachment even before the Ukrainian issue came forth, voted to impeach on both counts. Notably, Democratic presidential contender Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii voted “present” on both counts, saying she favored censure of the president rather than impeachment. Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey voted against both impeachment charges as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party days later.

While impeachment articles are usually quickly sent to the Senate to begin the trial phase (two thirds of the Senate must vote to convict the president to remove him, an unlikely scenario given the chamber’s Republican majority), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has withheld sending them over, claiming concerns that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will not conduct a fair trial but seek to have Trump exonerated quickly with as little political damage as possible. McConnell has said  he is working with the White House during the process, something that has been opposed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), a leading moderate and potential swing vote.

Impeachment Inquiry Testimonies Begin

This month saw the first public testimonies from officials involved in the controversy over President Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this year, with House Democrats hoping to implicate President Trump in an alleged attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government to investigate Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s son, in exchange for foreign aid. The alleged request by Trump was to look into Biden’s involvement in a Ukrainian oil company during his father’s vice presidency and the dismissal of a prosecutor supposedly investigating the company. While Hunter Biden had no previous experience in oil and gas, no wrongdoing by Biden has yet been uncovered, and the dismissal of the prosecutor has been linked to the prosecutor’s own previous corruption.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing in making the call, dismissing claims of a quid pro quo in which American aid would only be released if the investigation into Biden’s conduct began. While the foreign aid did go through, it may have only gone through after a complaint was filed by a whistleblower documenting concerns with Trump’s request. It does not prove, however, that the aid would not have been delivered otherwise.

Most witnesses, including former acting Ukrainian Ambassador Bill Taylor, have said that they received the impression that a quid pro quo existed, though they based that on information from second-hand sources, not from the president himself. US Ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland, said that members of the Trump cabinet knew about the request, including Vice President Mike Pence and acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney.

House Launches Impeachment Inquiry

fter months of resistance to pleas from vocal members of her caucus, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced last week that she would open an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s conduct. While many Democrats have called for impeachment proceedings in the past (soon after his inauguration), the event that sparked the latest round of calls relates to Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his plea for him to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden’s business and political actions in the country, a request that is politically salient given Joe Biden’s candidacy for president, in which he hopes to face Trump in November 2020.

The story broke earlier this month when a whistleblower released information about the contents of Trump’s call, which led to sharp criticism, mostly form Democrats but with a few Republicans joining in condemning the president’s action. After Pelosi initiated the impeachment inquiry on September 24th, the White House released a transcript of the call (which was not a verbatim copy, but rather a series of notes and recollections from other listeners) with Zelensky, which confirmed Trump cited Biden as an example of corruption in Ukraine.

In addition, Trump withheld $400 million in military aid to Ukraine prior to the call. Democrats have said the aide was withheld to be used as a bargaining chip to force Zelensky’s hand to investigate Biden; the White House says interagency disagreements led to its delay in disbursement.

Going forward, House Democrats will hold hearings on Trump over his conduct, with many Democrats hoping that it will lead to an impeachment vote. If successful, the Senate will decide whether to remove the president.

Democratic Field Narrows, Republican’s Grows by One

The 2020 Presidential field continues to change as several Democrats drop out of the race, while one Republican joins in an attempt to deny President Donald Trump the GOP nomination.

This month, four major candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race: former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton, and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. None of the candidates managed to gain major support during any of the campaign, with Moulton never making the debate stage and Gillibrand (the highest-polling one of the group) only scoring 3% in one poll and usually averaging only 1%.

This still leaves well over a dozen candidates in the mix, though only three, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warrant, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, poll in the double digits. The rest, including relatively high polling candidates California Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are in the single digits.

However, recent polls have indicated that any of those candidates has a polling advantage over Trump in the general, though the election is still over a year away, and the political environment can easily shift more in favor (or even less in favor) of Trump’s reelection prospects.

Meanwhile, former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois announced a longshot bid to challenge Trump for the GOP primary this week. Walsh, once a strong Trump supporter and a conservative firebrand, has come under fire for controversial and racially tinged statements made in his past.

Robert Mueller Speaks Publicly for the First Time Since Investigation Started

Former Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller spoke publicly Wednesday to speak on the findings in his report on Russian intervention in the 2016 presidential election, alleged Trump campaign collusions with those efforts, and possible obstruction efforts by President Trump of the investigation.

Mueller offered no new information on his findings. He reiterated that the report did not find criminal activity between the Trump campaign and Russia, but could not says the Trump campaign did not commit any obstruction. Mueller said once again that his investigation was constrained by Department of Justice guidelines that prohibit the indictment of a sitting president.

Mueller refused to take questions and said he would not engage in hypotheticals. Chief among them is whether Mueller would indict Trump if he were not the president. The report said that, in addition to the DOJ guidelines, such charges may be difficult to prove given the president’s wide latitude to appoint and dismiss officials. Most evidence of obstruction given in Mueller’s report was related to Trump’s failed attempts to fire officials overseeing the investigation.

Mueller Report Released

Attorney General William Barr released the Mueller Report on April 18. The report, which had portions of it redacted to protect information related to ongoing investigations and grand jury testimony, detailed Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election, the investigation into whether the Trump campaign conspired with them and whether President Trump attempted to obstruct justice. 

The report says Mueller’s team did not find that the Trump campaign criminally conspired with the Russian government. It did not make a judgment whether the Trump campaign obstructed justice, however. It listed actions by Trump that Mueller viewed as evidence that obstruction may have occurred, such as firing FBI Director James Comey and telling then-White House Counsel Don McGahn to fire Mueller, but also wrote that such actions do fall under executive constitutional authority and thus can be hard to prove conclusively as obstruction. In addition, Mueller cited existing Department of Justice guidelines that do not allow indictments of sitting presidents.

Mueller Report Complete, AG Says He Will Release It

A dramatic chapter in US political history has come to an end as Special Counsel Robert Mueller turned in his final report to US Attorney General William Barr, detailing his findings on Russian meddling in the 2016 election, alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, and whether the president obstructed justice. The full report has not been released, but a four-page summary released by Barr says the 300-page report concluded there was no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia and there was  insufficient evidence that Trump obstructed justice, leaving the choice to prosecute the president to the Department of Justice (DOJ). Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein both agreed that there was insufficient evidence to prosecute Trump and will not do so, with both not considering whether prosecuting a sitting president is appropriate. Their decision effectively ends the president’s legal worries on that front.

Democrats criticized Barr for not releasing the report, calling for the full publication of the report, a position that has bipartisan support according to polls and a recent House vote on the matter. Barr has said he will release the report in April once the DOJ properly redacts it to prevent the release of classified information.

Trump has claimed complete exoneration on the matter, with Democrats responding the report did not do so, especially on the matter of obstruction. However, given Trump’s repeated claims that his campaign did not collude with the Russians and the report not discovering any evidence of it doing so, the Trump team’s celebration does not appear to be without cause.

Trump-Kim Summit Ends Without Agreement

The summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam ended without a signed agreement Thursday. Neither side could come to agreement, with Kim reportedly wanting the removal of all sanctions and Trump wishing to implement more accountability on North Korea’s denuclearization efforts.

Trump claimed that while Kim had agreed to close the major nuclear site Yongbyon, he was unwilling to destroy others, including secret sites. North Korean officials pushed back on his claims, saying Kim had agreed to close other sites and had only requested partial, not full, lifting of sanctions.

The lack of a signed agreement at the end of the meeting was a disappointment for the White House, which had hoped to build on the momentum from last year’s summit in Singapore, in which Kim said he was open to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Many, however, accused the North of being disingenuous, especially after the country was revealed to have been building more nuclear weapons and missile sites even after the Singapore summit.

Trump has made peace on the Korean Peninsula a central foreign policy goal for his administration, which has largely been preoccupied with domestic issues such as immigration and investigations into alleged Russian collusion during the 2016 election. The failure of this week’s summit to achieve a further step in the denuclearization process, while a blow to Trump, is unlikely to be the end of peace talks and diplomatic efforts for rapprochement between the two countries, but will likely shift focus from the issue for now.

Shutdown Ends, For Now

The longest federal government shutdown in history ended last Friday, with no permanent concluding agreement reached. Under the temporary agreement, funding for federal government agencies was restored until February 15, after which government funding will expire unless a new agreement occurs.

The shutdown began on December 22, after President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, failed to come to a agree on funding for a wall along the US-Mexican border. Trump wanted at least $5.7 billion in funding for building a barrier and increased border surveillance, while Democrats criticized such measures, with Pelosi going as far as to call a wall an “immorality.”

During the shutdown, Trump and Pelosi tussled over other areas of government, including Trump’s refusal to authorize a trip by Pelosi to the Middle East and Pelosi refusing to allow Trump to give the State of the Union speech in the House chamber.

Trump agreed to end the shutdown last week, without receiving any promise for funding, but also saying that he will attempt the same fight again next month. If Congress does not allocate funding for a border wall, Trump has threatened, he will declare a national emergency to divert funding to begin some of the construction. Trump cites the number of people crossing illegally and crime committed by those in the country illegally as justifying such a decision. Democrats have criticized Trump for this threat, as have some Republicans, saying that such as move creates a bad precedent for future administrations.

No End in Sight for Federal Government Shutdown

The government shutdown resulting from disagreement over the funding of a border wall continues into 2019 with no end in sight.

The shutdown began on December 22 after President Trump and Democrats failed to find agreement on funding the president’s signature campaign promise, a border wall across much, if not all, the US-Mexican border. Trump had asked Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for $5 billion in funding for such a wall, which they have refused to support. With Trump in opposition to any spending bill that funds the government without wall funding, Republicans have been unwilling to support any spending bill without it. While Republicans hold the House until January 3, 2019, Senate Democrats have blocked measures that include wall funding as such bills need 60 votes to pass. Republicans hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate. While Republicans will gain net two seats in the coming Congress in the Senate, there will be still enough Democrats to block funding. In addition, the incoming Democratic majority in the House will also not be supportive of Trump’s requested funding.

Shutdowns lead to the suspension of numerous federal government services and the furloughing of government employees. The effects of this shutdown have been mitigated by two spending bills passed right before the main government funding resolutions expired. This money is expected to run out for many agencies, such as the Smithsonian, at the beginning of 2019.

Services deemed essential, such as those related to the military, continue to be funded.

Democratic Takeover of House will Cause Trump Problems, Senate Remains GOP

Democrats took forty seats in the House of Representatives this November, which will give them party a majority of seats in the chamber for the first times since 2011. Republicans, however, managed to increase their majority in the Senate by two seats, picking up four seats by defeating incumbent Democrats in states President Trump won in 2016 and losing two seats, one in Arizona and one in Nevada. Democrats will have 235 seats in the House to Republican's 200 when the new Congress begins January 3, while Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

This will cause some new issues for Trump and his party. With the Republicans now lacking full control of Congress, pushing through their favored legislation will become far more difficult. In addition, House Democrats have promised to launch a series of investigations into Trump, which could include searches into the extent of his contacts with Russian nationals, his handling of the firing of then-FBI Director James Comey in 2017, and allegations into whether Trump has personally enriched himself through his office.

Even with this, Republicans have maintained considerable power through expanding their Senate majority. Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have made confirming Trump’s judicial nominees to federal courts a priority. With two more members in the next Congress, pushing through Trump’s picks will likely become less laborious for the GOP, which successfully fought to confirm now Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the court this year. 

Senate leadership will remain in the next Congress, with the exception of Sen. John Thune (R-SD) taking over for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as Senate majority whip. The Republican House leader will be Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), while Democrats have yet to choose the speaker, but it is believed former Speaker and current House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has the best chance.