Trump Impeached by House, Faces Trial in Senate

President Donald Trump this month became the third president in US history to be impeached, with a majority of the House of Representatives voting to impeach him on two charges, one for abuse of power regarding his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the request to investigate Hunter Biden, and one for obstruction of Congress for not providing documents from the White House in the course of the inquiry.

 The vote was near party line, with nearly all Democrats voting for both charges and no Republicans voting for either. Independent Justin Amash of Michigan, who broke from the Republican Party earlier this year after he came out in favor of impeachment even before the Ukrainian issue came forth, voted to impeach on both counts. Notably, Democratic presidential contender Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii voted “present” on both counts, saying she favored censure of the president rather than impeachment. Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey voted against both impeachment charges as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party days later.

While impeachment articles are usually quickly sent to the Senate to begin the trial phase (two thirds of the Senate must vote to convict the president to remove him, an unlikely scenario given the chamber’s Republican majority), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has withheld sending them over, claiming concerns that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will not conduct a fair trial but seek to have Trump exonerated quickly with as little political damage as possible. McConnell has said  he is working with the White House during the process, something that has been opposed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), a leading moderate and potential swing vote.

House Launches Impeachment Inquiry

fter months of resistance to pleas from vocal members of her caucus, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced last week that she would open an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s conduct. While many Democrats have called for impeachment proceedings in the past (soon after his inauguration), the event that sparked the latest round of calls relates to Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his plea for him to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden’s business and political actions in the country, a request that is politically salient given Joe Biden’s candidacy for president, in which he hopes to face Trump in November 2020.

The story broke earlier this month when a whistleblower released information about the contents of Trump’s call, which led to sharp criticism, mostly form Democrats but with a few Republicans joining in condemning the president’s action. After Pelosi initiated the impeachment inquiry on September 24th, the White House released a transcript of the call (which was not a verbatim copy, but rather a series of notes and recollections from other listeners) with Zelensky, which confirmed Trump cited Biden as an example of corruption in Ukraine.

In addition, Trump withheld $400 million in military aid to Ukraine prior to the call. Democrats have said the aide was withheld to be used as a bargaining chip to force Zelensky’s hand to investigate Biden; the White House says interagency disagreements led to its delay in disbursement.

Going forward, House Democrats will hold hearings on Trump over his conduct, with many Democrats hoping that it will lead to an impeachment vote. If successful, the Senate will decide whether to remove the president.

Shutdown Ends, For Now

The longest federal government shutdown in history ended last Friday, with no permanent concluding agreement reached. Under the temporary agreement, funding for federal government agencies was restored until February 15, after which government funding will expire unless a new agreement occurs.

The shutdown began on December 22, after President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, failed to come to a agree on funding for a wall along the US-Mexican border. Trump wanted at least $5.7 billion in funding for building a barrier and increased border surveillance, while Democrats criticized such measures, with Pelosi going as far as to call a wall an “immorality.”

During the shutdown, Trump and Pelosi tussled over other areas of government, including Trump’s refusal to authorize a trip by Pelosi to the Middle East and Pelosi refusing to allow Trump to give the State of the Union speech in the House chamber.

Trump agreed to end the shutdown last week, without receiving any promise for funding, but also saying that he will attempt the same fight again next month. If Congress does not allocate funding for a border wall, Trump has threatened, he will declare a national emergency to divert funding to begin some of the construction. Trump cites the number of people crossing illegally and crime committed by those in the country illegally as justifying such a decision. Democrats have criticized Trump for this threat, as have some Republicans, saying that such as move creates a bad precedent for future administrations.

No End in Sight for Federal Government Shutdown

The government shutdown resulting from disagreement over the funding of a border wall continues into 2019 with no end in sight.

The shutdown began on December 22 after President Trump and Democrats failed to find agreement on funding the president’s signature campaign promise, a border wall across much, if not all, the US-Mexican border. Trump had asked Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for $5 billion in funding for such a wall, which they have refused to support. With Trump in opposition to any spending bill that funds the government without wall funding, Republicans have been unwilling to support any spending bill without it. While Republicans hold the House until January 3, 2019, Senate Democrats have blocked measures that include wall funding as such bills need 60 votes to pass. Republicans hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate. While Republicans will gain net two seats in the coming Congress in the Senate, there will be still enough Democrats to block funding. In addition, the incoming Democratic majority in the House will also not be supportive of Trump’s requested funding.

Shutdowns lead to the suspension of numerous federal government services and the furloughing of government employees. The effects of this shutdown have been mitigated by two spending bills passed right before the main government funding resolutions expired. This money is expected to run out for many agencies, such as the Smithsonian, at the beginning of 2019.

Services deemed essential, such as those related to the military, continue to be funded.

Democratic Takeover of House will Cause Trump Problems, Senate Remains GOP

Democrats took forty seats in the House of Representatives this November, which will give them party a majority of seats in the chamber for the first times since 2011. Republicans, however, managed to increase their majority in the Senate by two seats, picking up four seats by defeating incumbent Democrats in states President Trump won in 2016 and losing two seats, one in Arizona and one in Nevada. Democrats will have 235 seats in the House to Republican's 200 when the new Congress begins January 3, while Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

This will cause some new issues for Trump and his party. With the Republicans now lacking full control of Congress, pushing through their favored legislation will become far more difficult. In addition, House Democrats have promised to launch a series of investigations into Trump, which could include searches into the extent of his contacts with Russian nationals, his handling of the firing of then-FBI Director James Comey in 2017, and allegations into whether Trump has personally enriched himself through his office.

Even with this, Republicans have maintained considerable power through expanding their Senate majority. Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have made confirming Trump’s judicial nominees to federal courts a priority. With two more members in the next Congress, pushing through Trump’s picks will likely become less laborious for the GOP, which successfully fought to confirm now Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the court this year. 

Senate leadership will remain in the next Congress, with the exception of Sen. John Thune (R-SD) taking over for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as Senate majority whip. The Republican House leader will be Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), while Democrats have yet to choose the speaker, but it is believed former Speaker and current House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has the best chance.