Biden Enters Democratic Presidential Race on Top

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced last Thursday his entry into the crowded field for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Biden currently faces at least 20 other major candidates, as well as some others who may join the race, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Biden currently tops the field in polling, leading second place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders by 13.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. No other candidates currently break double digits, though some, like South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have seen the poll numbers rise over the past month, with Buttigieg starting near zero when he announced to now around 8.4%. Some, such as Texas Sen. Beto O’Rourke, have seen declines, with O’Rourke now polling around 5.6%, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

With the nearest electoral contest not until the start of 2020, polls are bound to change. However, the large polling lead that Biden currently has likely indicates a strong early advantage over other contestants, and is higher than Jeb Bush’s polling lead in the early Republican primary polls in 2016 (Bush eventually only won less than 1% of the vote after withdrawing in February 2016).

Sanders’s high poll numbers may also be an indication of winning potential, as he has kept a large share of his support from 2016, even with other candidates this cycle echoing his policies. If he manages to maintain this support and add to it when other progressive challengers inevitably drop out, his path to the nomination may become clearer.

Mueller Report Released

Attorney General William Barr released the Mueller Report on April 18. The report, which had portions of it redacted to protect information related to ongoing investigations and grand jury testimony, detailed Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election, the investigation into whether the Trump campaign conspired with them and whether President Trump attempted to obstruct justice. 

The report says Mueller’s team did not find that the Trump campaign criminally conspired with the Russian government. It did not make a judgment whether the Trump campaign obstructed justice, however. It listed actions by Trump that Mueller viewed as evidence that obstruction may have occurred, such as firing FBI Director James Comey and telling then-White House Counsel Don McGahn to fire Mueller, but also wrote that such actions do fall under executive constitutional authority and thus can be hard to prove conclusively as obstruction. In addition, Mueller cited existing Department of Justice guidelines that do not allow indictments of sitting presidents.