Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.