Hard Year Begets New Challenges

The year 2020, with its plethora of challenges from all aspects of life, may not be missed by many. The most notable challenge, the coronavirus pandemic, will carry on into 2021 (and perhaps beyond that). The resulting economic downturn has affected millions, with many facing reduced hours, layoffs, and/or challenges from remote work.

 The heated US election season is essentially over, but the political polarization that begat it remains a force in American life.

This year had the most active Atlantic basin hurricane season on record with several destructive storms making landfall. Western US forests burned in the latter half of the year, which followed massive fires in Australia.

What will 2021 bring? Perhaps just a small improvement from this past year will make it seem better by comparison, though many of the underlying challenges plaguing 2020 will almost certainly continue into 2021 and even into the rest of the 2020s.

 

Attack on Airport in Yemen Leaves Over Two Dozen Dead

 Explosions and gunfire rocked an airport in Aden, Yemen on Wednesday, killing at least 25 as members of a new Saudi-backed government arrived. One government officials, a deputy minister of public works, was killed.

The attack comes amid a county gripped in conflict, as the Iran-backed Houthis continue to hold a large swath of the nation as other separatist groups try to claim control. Saudi Arabia has been a major player in the conflict, opposing the Iran-backed Houthi group. The Yemen conflict is part of a broader power struggle in the Middle East between Sunni governments, including Saudi Arabia, and Shia Iran.

 

Vaccine Rollout Begins

The long-awaited coronavirus vaccines rolled out publicly this month, with three major ones approved by government regulators. This follows months of clinical trials and some doubt whether such vaccines would be ready by the year’s end. The rollouts  have not been without their challenges, however, as governments work to get the pandemic under control.

Pfizer’s vaccine was the first to be announced as clinically effective and safe, followed closely by Moderna’s vaccine, which uses new messenger RNA technology to create immunity. The challenges of these two vaccines, and from some others that will follow, include the need for two doses of the vaccine to be given days apart and the need for cold storage. Pfizer’s must be stored at temperatures hat are colder than Antarctica (around 70 Celsius), while Moderna’s must be kept at temperatures closer to a regular freezer (-20 Celsius).

Another vaccine, developed by researchers at the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, does not require the cold temperatures that Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines need and can instead be stored in a standard refrigerator. The United Kingdom has approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for use in the country, and this vaccine will likely be approved in other countries over time.

Vaccine immunizations are currently prioritized to healthcare workers and those at severe risk of complications, such as the elderly and immunosuppressed. Throughout 2021, as more vaccine doses are created and logistical issues sort themselves out, a greater share of the population, including healthy people with no pre-existing conditions, will begin receiving doses of the vaccine.

 

Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

Coronavirus Pandemic Reaches Highest Levels This Month

Coronavirus cases skyrocketed this past month in the United States, with several days of the month posting record infection numbers. While cases numbers have stopped climbing in recent days, the massive increase this month again put stress on health systems and led politicians scrambling to respond.

Many of the COVID-19 hotspots this time were in rural areas in the middle of the country. Previous hotspots in the US had mostly been in urban areas in large states.

The ongoing pandemic has continued to stress certain sectors. Restaurants and bars struggle as government mandates limit the number of customers able to be served in addition to public skepticism of the safety of eating out. Meanwhile public transportation systems faced greatly diminished ridership, diminishing their often already stressed finances.

Across the world, coronavirus case increase led to varying responses. Some nations, like the UK and Turkey, renewed curfew and lockdown measures in an effort to stem the virus.

Several companies, including Pfizer and Moderna, have announced success in their vaccine trials, bringing hope of a general vaccine sometime in 2021.

 

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

Interesting Data Points from This Month's Election

While President Trump continues to challenge the legitimacy of the this month's election and President-elect Biden begins the transition effort, the election has provided some interesting data points that election data wonks and otherwise political junkies can pore over for months to come.

Death of the Bellwethers 

Several counties across the US have been excellent bellwethers in recent elections, voting for the ultimate winner of the election (in the electoral college, not necessarily in the popular vote). The most accurate one was Vigo County, Indiana, home of Terra Haute, which has voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1956 on.

 Until 2020. 

And it wasn't alone. In fact, most notable bellwether counties failed to predict Joe Biden's win. Hidalgo County, NM has predicted all elections successfully since 1972, but voted for Trump this year. Other counties that failed included Essex County, VT, Westmoreland County, VA, Coos County, NH, and Darlington County, SC, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Successful bellwether counties included Blaine County, MT, Kent County, DE, and Clallam County, WA, all which voted for Biden this year after voting for Trump in 2016. 

So why the shift? These counties tend to be low-population with a rural character, areas in which Trump has performed well and have been shifting towards Republicans for years. In the case of Kent County, Delaware, while it is the least populous county in the state, it contains the state capital of Dover and is in Biden's home state. Vigo County, Indiana, meanwhile seems to be swinging towards Republicans. It was not particularly close in either 2016 or 2020, and voted for a Republican governor for the first time in decades.

In conclusion, the failure of the bellwethers the cycle may be a one-off, or a signal of a long term political shift.

Longtime Republican Counties Turning Blue

Orange County, CA made news in 2016 after voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, making the former secretary of state the first Democrat to win the county since 1936. Orange County for years was synonymous with Southern Californian conservatism and was the bedrock of Republican support in the Golden State. 

The affluent suburban shift to Democrats over the past few cycles accelerated under Trump, with Orange County perhaps the most visible example. Orange County shifted even more Democratic in 2020 in the presidential race, though two Orange County House seats flipped back to the Republicans after being taken by Democrats in 2018 (these two seats were handily won by incumbent Republicans in 2016). 

Other traditionally Republican counties shifted Blue for the first time in decades. Duval County, FL, which is essentially conterminous with Jacksonville, voted Republican for the first time since 1976. Duval went for Trump in 2016, but voted for Democratic candidates for the Senate and the governorship in 2018. Likewise for Seminole County, FL a suburban county outside Orlando, which voted Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1948.

Even more dramatic was Riley County, KS, home of Manhattan and Kansas State University. The county voted Democratic for the first time ever. While Riley County has voted Democratic (sometimes by large margins) in state races, its strong Union sympathies set the stage to keep the county Republican for a century and a half. 

Tarrant County, TX, home of Fort Worth, voted Democratic (albeit by less than 1%) for the first time since 1956. Maricopa County, AZ, home of Phoenix, went blue for the first time since 1948. These were the last counties with over 1 million people to have voted Republican in 2016. 

Oklahoma County, OK, home of Oklahoma City, remained Republican by only 1.1 percentage points. In 2016 the county voted Republican by 10.5%, though third parties won 7.1% that cycle. This time around it was only 2.7%. 

In all these counties, the blue trend mostly comes from the shift in college-educated voters voting more Democratic, while Republicans have found a new base among voters without college degrees.

Republican Surprise in Hispanic-Majority Areas of Texas

South Texas, with strong Hispanic majorities in most counties, has been an ancestrally Democratic region, rarely supporting Republicans since statehood. While Biden held on to the most populous counties of Hidalgo (home of McAllen and Edinburg) and Cameron (Brownsville and Harlingen), its margins in both counties were diminished from 2016, moving against the predominant Democratic shift (to a varying degree) across most counties in the US from 2016. E

Even more dramatic were the results in less populous but even more Hispanic counties such as Zapata and Starr. Zapata voted Republican for the first time in 2016, with Trump besting Biden by 5.5 points. Starr remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by 5.1 points, though Clinton beat Trump by 60.2 pints in 2016, a 55.1 swing to the Republicans, the largest in the nation.

Traditionally Democratic-leaning counties of Val Verde (in West Texas, home of Del Rio), Jim Wells (home of Alice), Reeves (also in West Texas), LaSalle, and Frio all flipped GOP this cycle. Other Democratic counties like Maverick (home of Eagle Pass) and Webb (Laredo) remained Democratic with reduced margins. 

Trump's performance likely helped Tony Gonzalez keep Will Hurd's seat for the GOP in Texas's 23rd Congressional District and likely nearly flipped Texas's 15th (based in McAllen), which no national observers had rated competitive.

A similar circumstance occurred in 2004 with George Bush's landslide victory in the state, even narrowly carrying Cameron, which Trump failed to do this time around. Bush's strong showing in this part of the state likely derives from the favorite son effect and his strong showing among Hispanics. Trump also performed relatively strongly with Hispanics in 2020, and it remains to be seen whether these results indicate a long-term shift to the GOP or was a one-off event. 

Trump's Improvement Among Hispanics Nationally

Exit polls have Trump winning around 32-36% of the Hispanic vote, better than the approximately 29% he received in 2016. 

In Miami-Dade County, FL, home to Miami, Trump dramatically improved his performance among Hispanics from 2016, especially among Cuban-Americans. While he did not win this large county of 2.7 million, his losing margin was only approximately 7 points, versus the 29 point margin by which he lost in 2016. A similar but much smaller improvement for Trump was seen in Osceola County, FL, outside Orlando, which has a large Puerto Rican population, a demographic that tends to vote more Democratic than other Hispanic groups.

In relatively small Imperial County, CA, home of Brawley and El Centro, Biden managed to keep the county Democratic, though Trump managed to cut off about 15 points off the margin of victory for the Democrats from 2016. Imperial is approximately 80% Hispanic.

The Black Vote

The black vote experienced less dramatic movement than the Hispanic vote, though both sides made vocal appeals to the black Americans ahead of the election. As an example, DeKalb County, GA, which is heavily African-American and part of the Atlanta metro area, moved approximately 4 points to the Democrats compared to 2016. 

National exit polling had Trump doing around the same with black voters as 2016, with some showing black support for Trump slightly up. Edison's 2016 exit polling had Clinton beating Trump 88 to 8 among black voters, with 4 percent for third parties, and CNN's 2020 exit poll had Biden beating Trump 87 to 12. If these numbers are true, the overall percentage point movement is small, though for the Republicans would represent a 33.33% increase in their percentage increase of black voters.

Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Coronavirus Cases Surge as US, Europe Face Likely Second Wave

The coronavirus pandemic has again shifted into another phase of heightened infection rates, with the United States reporting record case numbers, with Wednesday seeing over 80,000 new reported infections. While the US has remained the country with the most cases throughout most of the pandemic, European countries are experiencing what is being described as the ‘second wave’ of the epidemic, leading to a new series of restrictions and lockdowns. French President Emmanuel Marcon has announced a new one-month lockdown, and Germany’s federal and state governments have closed bars, restaurants, and most forms of public entertainment.

 

Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed to Supreme Court

Barrett, picture here in 2018,
after her elevation to the Seventh
Court of Appeals

Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the Seventh Court of Appeals was confirmed Monday on a nearly party-line vote, with all Democrats voting against confirmation and all Republicans voting for it except for Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is locked in a close reelection battle. 

Barrett, who was nominated last month to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg after her death from pancreatic cancer, is widely viewed as a judicial conservative and has repeatedly affirmed her belief in  originalist jurisprudence that seeks to interpret laws as they were originally written. Her elevation to the high court is expected to shift the court to the right as she replaces the liberal Ginsburg and removes Chief Justice John Roberts, a moderate conservative, as the swing vote.

 

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Trump Nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Seat

 The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose history of overcoming sexism in her career and her liberal jurisprudence during her 27 years on the Supreme Court made her a towering figure in the American legal community, threw another wrench in the American political world. Ginsburg, who died at 87 on September 18, had faced health challenges for several years before she succumbed to pancreatic cancer.

Trump nominated on Saturday federal Appeals Court Judge and legal scholar Amy Coney Barrett to fill her seat. In her acceptance speech for the nomination, Barrett cited Antonin Scalia, noted for his conservative views and originalist jurisprudence, as her greatest influence and has said that her views on constitutional interpretation are the same as his. If Barrett is confirmed, her presence on the court is expected to turn the court more to the right, with conservative-leaning justices holding a 6-3 majority.

Democrats have called for the nomination of a successor to be postponed until after the next president is elected, citing Republicans refusing to consider Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, after the death of Antonin Scalia.

 

Belarus Faces Continued Unrest as Lukashenko Holds Tightly onto Power

Belarusians who have grown tired of Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule continue to demonstrate in the streets as the 66-year old president continues to hold on to power after a disputed election result this month. Official tallies from the government claim he earned over 80% of the vote, while opposition leaders say the result was rigged in his favor, claims which the US, the UK, and the EU support.

Lukashenko has been called “Europe’s last dictator” and has led the country since 1994. While having difficulties in their relationship in the past, Lukashenko is considered a geopolitical ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Coronavirus Cases Trending Down in US, Reemerge in Other Countries

Global coronavirus cases have topped 25 million worldwide as countries around the world struggle to contain the outbreak which began late last year in Hubei Province, China, with worldwide deaths currently numbered at 843,000. France and Spain are among the countries to report a resurgence in their COVID-19 numbers, with the latter being one of the centers of the outbreak when it began its worldwide spread in early 2020.

The United States, the worldwide leader in coronavirus cases and deaths, has seen some encouraging signs as the summer nears its end. New York and New Jersey continue to have low numbers of cases and deaths after suffering at the start of the pandemic in the US, and the later hotspots of Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen their case and death numbers drop off drastically since their peak in July. However, other areas of the country continue to suffer outbreaks, often linked to mass gatherings such as parties. Colleges and universities have clamped down on such gatherings, with some deciding to cancel in-person classes after attempting to reopen for the semester.

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 

Coronavirus Cases Spike Across the US, World

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached 10 million this month as governments struggle to contain the spread of the deadly virus. The resulting infections have led to at least confirmed 500,000 deaths.

In the United States, the majority of states have reported a rising number of cases, with the only region spared from the uptick being the Northeast, which was most affected when the outbreak started in March and April. Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a large jump in cases, prompting state and local leaders to reinstitute certain control measures, such as closing bars, mandating mask wearing, and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Around one quarter of confirmed deaths worldwide have occurred in the United States, whose death toll currently stands at around 125,000. The worldwide number of deaths is likely higher than 500,000 because of underreporting and the suspiciously low numbers reported by the Chinese government, especially given China’s role as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Vice President Mike Pence has announced support for wearing masks in a recent interview with CBS News, though President Donald Trump himself has been ambivalent about encouraging masks and has not encouraged mask wearing mandates. Wearing surgical and cloth masks can reduce the spread of the virus to others if the wearer is sick, but has not been shown to offer significant protection to the wearer. The US government has encouraged protective N95 standard masks to be used only by health care professionals and other emergency responders. Notably, US health officials discouraged the purchase of N95 masks by individuals at the beginning of the outbreak, misrepresenting their effectiveness to the public, in an attempt to preserve them for health care workers.

Social Unrest Continues Across the US

The death of George Floyd in Minneapolis at the hands of four police officers last month led to social friction, and while the most violent undercurrent has ebbed for now, it has not fully abated. Protestors condemning the treatment of black Americans by police as well as society at-large have been largely peaceful, though some in the movement have insisted on more forceful measures, such as toppling statues, spray painting monuments, and occupying public spaces. The most notable of the last is the Seattle Capital Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP), which has resisted attempts to disperse as its occupants continue to control several city blocks.

Protests, Riots Continue After Death of George Floyd

The death of a black man, George Floyd, at the hands of a white police officer, Derek Chauvin, in Minneapolis this past week has led to outrage across ideological, racial, and economic lines. Chauvin had put his knee on Floyd’s neck during an arrest in which Floyd allegedly paid with a counterfeit bill at a store. Video shows Floyd not resisting when initially arrested, and it is unclear how and why he was subdued and when Chauvin put his knee on Floyd’s neck. Floyd said “I can’t breathe” during the incident in which Chauvin had his knee on Floyd’s neck for just under nine minutes. Two other police were also holding Floyd down while Chauvin was kneeling on Floyd’s neck. The four police who were involved in the arrest have been fired and Chauvin has been charged with third-degree murder and manslaughter.

Almost immediately demonstrators protested in Minneapolis, both about Floyd’s death and police conduct and brutality in the US in general. These demonstrations quickly spread to other major US cities, and many demonstrations have evolved in violent incidents as looters and rioters have joined them. Many retail establishments have been burned, as well as a police precinct in Minneapolis. Gunfire has been exchanged in several cities, including Minneapolis, Louisville, and Oakland (here a security officer was murdered).

In St. Louis, a man was dragged to death by a FedEx truck after looters attempted to hijack the truck and allegedly brandished guns at the driver.

The National Guard has been called to help quell the protests in several cities, including in Minneapolis, though their deployment has been limited in an attempt to prevent escalation. Police tactics to quell the demonstrations and riots have also been criticized.

Re-openings Continue as Coronavirus Continues to Strike

States across the US have begun or continued their efforts to re-open their economies while the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect thousands across the country and around the world. Politicians and health officials have cited a declining trend in new cases and the reduced threat of hospital overcrowding in allowing certain businesses to re-open, often at a reduced capacity. For example, restaurants in Texas were initially allowed to re-open at 25% capacity, with further increases scheduled.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have increased in Latin America, believed to be the next hotspot for the pandemic. Brazil’s dramatic increase has led US President Donald Trump to block entrance of those from Brazil into the US. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been criticized for not taking aggressive enough measures to fight the virus, as has Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Health officials in San Diego have said that nearly half of the new cases of the virus are related to recent border crossings, which have nominally been closed to regular visitors and only open to business.

America Returns to Space

Amid the coronavirus pandemic and the unrest related to the death of George Floyd, the US has something to celebrate. For the first time since 2011, a US spacecraft has carried Americans into space, and for the first time a private corporation, SpaceX, was responsible for the development of a manned spacecraft.

The spacecraft, a Crew Dragon, lifted off on Friday. The first attempt to launch was canceled on May 27 because of bad weather related to Tropical Storm Bertha. While thunderstorms were in some neighboring areas to the launch site on Friday, they were not close enough to cause the launch to be scrubbed.

Israeli Political Crisis Comes to an End For Now

After three elections within the past year, Israel is set to have a permanent government for the first time since 2019.

In all three elections, neither the left wing nor the right-wing coalitions were able to gather a majority of legislators, with neither bloc willing to form an alliance with the Joint List, a group of Arab-interest parties. In addition, Avigdor Lieberman, who leads a secularist right-wing party refused to join incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc over a dispute on requiring Orthodox Jews to perform military service.

As part of an agreement, Netanyahu will serve as prime minister until October 2021, when his center-left rival-turned-partner Benny Gantz will take over.

General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.

Reopenings Slowly Begin as Coronavirus Pandemic Continues

Some states will begin efforts to reopen more portions of their economy after over a month of widespread lockdowns and stay at home orders aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes the disease COVID-19.

Earlier this month, a coalition of northeastern US governors formed in an effort to coordinate efforts to allow certain businesses to reopen. The Northeast has been hit especially hard by the pandemic, with New York and New Jersey composing the most active hotspot for new infections, and Massachusetts recently emerging as a center of new cases. Other hotspots include Michigan (especially the Detroit metropolitan area) as well as Louisiana.

Texas is the largest state so far to announce large-scale reopening efforts. For example, on Friday restaurants will be allowed to serve at 25% seating capacity, with counties with less than five confirmed cases (mostly rural and low population) will be allowed to reopen at 50% capacity. Over time the capacity allowance will be increased if the number of infections remains stable or decreases. While Texas has been spared the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, concerns over new infections linger, with Lamar County (home of Paris, Texas) reporting a stark increase in infections just before reopening efforts. Bars and movie theaters will continue to be closed.

Around the world, countries continue to face the worst public health crisis many of them have faced since the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, himself having been infected by the virus, announced that the UK was ‘past the peak’ in infection cases.

Trump Approval Up, Biden Campaign Sidelined

President Trump’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since the start of his presidency. While it is still underwater, his favorable-unfavorable margin has shrunk to around –4, according to an aggregation by FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has largely remained on the sidelines since his string of primary victories earlier this month, effectively knocking out his sole challenger for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He had promised he would give regular updates and campaign speeches through videos produced at his home, though his shaky performance in these and in media interviews has discouraged further campaign media productions for now.

Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, with some saying the president’s response to the threat was delayed. Trump counters that the US response has been aggressive and that widespread testing has helped reduce the spread.

Trump’s approval for handling the coronavirus is positive, though lower than that of state and government responses.

Coronavirus Pandemic Infects the World

The United States, according to official numbers, leads the world in coronavirus disease (officially named COVID-19) cases at over 186,000 confirmed infections. China, the origin country of the outbreak, reports just under 82,000 cases, though given the country’s central role in the virus’s original spread and subsequent transmission as well as its much larger population, that number likely significantly underestimates the number of infected.

Countries with a higher per capita rate of infection than the US include Spain and Italy, which also have had higher mortality rates (~10%). The US, in contrast, has had a mortality rate of around 2%. The true mortality rate of those infected is likely lower than these reported numbers, as it only takes into account confirmed cases. Many coronavirus cases are asymptomatic or only show mild symptoms.

Most states in the US have issued “stay-at-home” orders, which only allow limited travel to essential work functions or for shopping. The New York metropolitan area has been especially hit hard, with local morgues running out of room for the dead and refrigerated truck being brought into service as temporary morgues.

China has begun to lift restrictions on Wuhan, the city in which the virus originated (likely at a wet market in which live animals and meat are sold). The country has come under international criticism for its handling of the disease as its government worked to silence the voices of those raising concerns of the virus when it first appeared late last year. The most visible whistleblower, Li Wenliang, died after raising the alarm on the virus. The Chinese government had targeted Li in December 2019, accusing him of “spreading rumors.”

Sanders Leads Nationally as Biden Triumphs in South Carolina

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has captured frontrunner status in the Democratic race, though it may not be enough to win enough delegates before the convention in Milwaukee in a few months.

That may be even more likely after today’s vote, as former Vice President Joe Biden scored a strong victory in the South Carolina primary Saturday. Long touted as his firewall, Biden seemed to be danger just last week of losing the primary to a surging Sanders. Biden, with around 90% of the precincts in, has just under 50% of the vote, with second-place Sanders just under 20%.

Even with Biden’s South Carolina victory and the possibility of momentum heading into Super Tuesday this week, Sanders holds a healthy lead on national polling, which was Biden’s claim just last month. According to the RealClearPolitics poll aggregator, Sanders leads Biden 29.6% to 18.8%, with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg coming in third with 16.4%. Bloomberg, who will only be on state ballots starting on Super Tuesday, surged in polling this past month as he spent hundreds of millions of dollars on television and online advertisements. His momentum has slowed, however, amid a poor first debate performance and a somewhat resurgent Biden, whose disastrous Iowa and New Hampshire results had some wondering if he would leave the race.

While Sanders maintains the lead in national polling and in certain Super Tuesday states, there is a strong chance neither he or any other candidate will reach a majority of delegates on the first ballot. If that happens, delegates can choose who to be their nominee at the convention, possibly setting up a protracted and heated battle to face Trump in November.

Riots in India Kill 42 So Far

Riots have broken out in the city of Delhi as opponents and supporters of a controversial citizenship law passed by the Indian Parliament clashed on the streets.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) creates a path for citizenship for certain illegal immigrants but notably excludes Muslims from those eligible. The riots in North East Delhi arose after a local politician vowed to clear the streets of protestors opposing the law, most of whom are Muslim. Supporters of the law, mostly Hindu, took to the streets in an attempt to stop the demonstrations of the opponents. At least 600 have been arrested so far.

Coronavirus Causes Worry as Markets React

The coronavirus outbreak, linked to the virus now-named COVID-19, has sickened nearly 90,000 worldwide, with most infections occurring in China, the virus’s origin point, though rapidly spreading across the globe, including major outbreaks in Iran and Italy.

The virus, which causes a respiratory disease similar to influenza, spreads through respiratory droplets emitted from the body during sneezing and coughing. Cases can develop into pneumonia and possibly turn fatal. The fatality rate for the disease is estimated at 1-3%.

The prospect of a pandemic, in which the disease infects a significant population in most areas of the world, has sent shockwaves through the global markets, with many indices having their worst week since the financial crisis in 2008. The S&P 500 and the DJIA both fell around 10% this past week, with the DJIA shedding 3500 points.

In addition, concerns over the availability of health supplies, such as face masks, have surfaced as many of these products are made in China, specifically in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak.

Senate Continues with Impeachment Trial

UPDATE 1/31/20 9:51 PM EST: The Senate voted 51-49 to reject any additional witnesses in Trump's impeachment trial.

The US Senate took up the impeachment case against President Donald Trump this month, and is currently in the question-and-answer phase of the trial. This comes after the president's impeachment (similar to an indictment) by the US House of Representatives last month and the presentations both by the House managers, who argue for the president's removal from office, and the president's defense team.

The House impeachment managers, led by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) argued that Trump's actions on a phone call last year with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky constituted an impeachable offense after Trump asked Zelensky to open an investigation into the dealings of Hunter Biden, son of former Vice President and Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden. Witnesses allege that Trump planned to hold military aid to Ukraine, previously appropriated by Congress, unless the investigation occurred. The aid was released, though only after a whistleblower reported it. Democrats called such the alleged act an abuse of power in an attempt to hurt a domestic political rival, and also added another article of impeachment alleging obstruction as Trump did not allow key administration figures, such as acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, to testify.

The president's defense team countered the arguments put forth by House Democrats, saying that the president never threatened the Ukrainian officials directly with withholding aid, and such an act is not even an impeachable offense as no written statute exist outlawing it. Senators will soon vote whether to allow more witnesses, such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton, to testify. Bolton is believed to have first-hand knowledge of the decisions Trump was making in the matter. Republican defenders of the president have countered that they will ask Joe and Hunter Biden to testify and answer questions about alleged profiting from Joe Biden's political office. Joe Biden denies the allegations and had originally said he will not comply with a Senate subpoena, though he has since said he will testify if compelled by a lawful Senate order.

Coronavirus Declared Health Emergency by WHO, US

Both the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United States government this week declared the outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus a health emergency. This virus causes a respiratory illness that has led to 213 deaths, all in China, though its overall mortality rate is relatively low.

The US has limited to the number of airports that in which direct flights from China can land, and the State Department has issued a ‘Do Not Travel’ advisory for the country and encouraged travelers to rethink their plans. The Chinese government has continued its lockdown in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province and the city in which the outbreak began, to prevent the virus from spreading further.

While the symptoms from this strain of coronavirus are not as severe as other previous viral outbreaks, such as SARS and MERS, the threat of continued spread, as well as a more severe mutation emerging in the near future, have put pressure on public health officials. The virus has already infected over 10,000 people worldwide.