US Energy Department: COVID Most Likely Caused by Lab Leak

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) released an updated report this past week on the origins of the coronavirus outbreak, with the department now saying that the pandemic was a result of a leak in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2019. The report says that it has made this judgment with ‘low confidence,’ which means it has low certainty in its claim.

It joins the FBI in federal agencies that believe that the virus escaped from the lab (the FBI has ‘moderate confidence’ in this belief). Four other agencies believe that the pandemic was the result of natural transmission.

China has criticized the DOE report, with Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning claiming that the US is using the lab leak theory to score political points, rather than seek a scientific conclusion. She cited the previous WHO investigation, which had concluded that the virus was likely the result of natural transmission. The WHO’s report has also been criticized, with China accused of obstructing the organization’s investigation.

Rare Widespread Protests Rock China amid Zero-Covid Policy

China’s ‘zero-covid’ policy, along with a deadly residential fire in Xinjiang which may have been exacerbated by the policy, have led to the greatest show of public discontent since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

A deadly fire in a residential building high-rise building in Urumqi, Xinjiang on November 24 was a major catalyst for the unrest. The building’s residents were reportedly prevented from fleeing the building as a result of the strict quarantine policies, and emergency responders experienced difficulty reaching the building and breaching barriers.

Protests have spread to major cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, and the capital Beijing. University students have also protested at Tsinghua, Peking, and Sun Yat-sen Universities.

Police are reportedly checking the phones of people on the streets to see if certain apps, such as Instagram or Telegram, are installed on them. Protesters and other observers have used these apps to share news and footage of the protests to the outside world.

 

Markets Close Out Month of Losses with Modest Gains in Final Week

 Today marked the end of a wild month for stocks, and while major indices closed roughly flat from May 1 to My 31, this month saw wild fluctuations in stock prices and investors attempted to price in growing uncertainty as interest rates rise and threats of a recession loom.

The S&P 500 had sustained 7 consecutive weeks of losses prior to last week, the largest such streak since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) suffered an eight-week losing streak, the longest since 1923. These losses came as the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy in an attempt to rein in inflation. Central banks, like the Fed, pursue tighter monetary policy by raising interest rates, which reduce available credit, reducing money supply and reducing the size of the overall economy. In theory, this reduces the rate of price increases and should bring inflation to a stable, low level.

However, with the markets used to the easy money policies since the 2008 financial crash, a tight monetary policy brings uncertainty. Strained supply chains, sticky labor costs, and concerns of the availability of fuel and food have investors concerned about a possible recession and economic turmoil.

While the Russian invasion of Ukraine aggravated much of this turmoil, especially related to food supply given both country’s critical role in supplying food to the world, supply chains have come under enormous strain following the lifting of the coronavirus restrictions, which had reduced supply but also reduced demand. The removal of restrictions helped boost demand, especially given the amount of stimulus provided by governments throughout the pandemic, but supply has not caught up with the demand, creating an inability to fulfill consumer desires.

 

Omicron Variant of Coronavirus Identified

A new variant of the coronavirus, termed the ‘Omicron’ variant, has been identified in southern Africa and has already sparked new travel bans and restrictions across the world. The variant has already been identified in cases in Europe, and may be responsible for an uptick in cases in southern Africa.

The variant is a highly mutated form of the coronavirus which causes COVID-19, and is reported to be more contagious. Researchers are still assessing its mortality rate.

Whether the existing coronavirus vaccine offerings are effective against this new variant remain unknown, though health officials still encourage vaccinations and booster shots for those eligible.

The variant emerges as unrest grows in several countries over restrictions officials say are needed to end the pandemic. In the Netherlands, crowds fought with police after new restrictions were announced. In Italy and Austria, large protests took place over restrictions on unvaccinated individuals.

 

Coronavirus Fears Grow as Government Pushes for Vaccinations

Renewed fears of coronavirus spread in the United States, primarily caused by the more contagious Delta variant, have led to renewed restrictions and mandates across the country, most notably mask and vaccine mandates. President Joe Biden has issued an order for all federal workers and on-site contractors to be vaccinated or be mandated to wear masks and submit to frequent testing.

Private companies, such as Delta Airlines and Disney, have also mandated vaccines for their employees. The available vaccines in the US, (the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna and the more traditional viral vector Johnson and Johnson vaccine) are still under emergency use authorization, leading to hesitancy from many to take the vaccine as well as from many employers to mandate the vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has said they are working to fast-track approval of the Pfizer vaccine.

The Delta variant has been responsible for most of the recent infections in the past several weeks, with some scientists claiming the variant is as contagious as the chickenpox. The contagiousness of the variant has led to calls for both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to wear masks in an attempt to contain the virus’s spread. 

 

Vaccine Rollout Continues as COVID Spread Slows in US

One third of all American adults have now received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, and nearly 20% have already received two doses of the vaccine. and new infections have dropped dramatically from their high in January of this year. The vaccines have proven successful not only in reducing severe infection, but also in reducing transmissions. The success of the vaccines has led to an increased push to reopen more of the economy and remove limitations on gatherings and event attendance.

Others have criticized such reopening efforts, arguing that the success of the vaccination efforts could be undermined by removing restrictions too soon. While cases have dropped drastically from the high case numbers early this year, the number of new cases has plateaued and even increased in certain parts of the country. Michigan is one state that has been hit especially hard, and one of its cities, Jackson, has had a higher raw daily new case number than New York City. For comparison, Jackson has around 33,000 people, while New York has over 8 million people.

 

After Coronavirus Stimulus Bill, Democrats Eye Larger Plans

The American Rescue Plan, President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill, passed Congress on a party line vote this month, delivering $1,400 checks to most Americans, extending unemployment benefits, and allocating billions for various spending plans. While the plan only passed narrowly, many Democrats in Congress hope their small majorities in Congress will be enough to pass more ambitious plans, including a $3 trillion infrastructure plan, direct tax hikes on upper-income Americans, and gun control bills.

Democrats hope to pay for many of their plans through direct tax increases on those making $400,000 or more per year, as well as through increased enforcement of tax laws though increased audits.

On gun control, a longtime Democratic priority, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) claims that the Senate can pass a bipartisan bill to expand background checks, something echoed by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA). However, such a bill may be seen as too weak by more liberal Democrats, and will almost certainly draw strong opposition from most Republicans, casting doubt on Murphy’s and Toomey’s claims.

Some Democrats are calling for the elimination of the filibuster, the parliamentary rule which prohibits the Senate from advancing most legislation without 60 votes. President Biden has not called for the complete elimination of the filibuster, but has signaled openness to “reform,” remaining unclear on what changes to it he would support. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), considered the swing vote in the Senate, has said he would not support elimination the filibuster, but, like Biden, has signaled that he could be open to certain changes that would allow legislation to pass more easily.

 

Biden Works to Advance His Agenda in His First Days

President Biden has begun pushing his agenda in his first days as president, issuing numerous executive orders and laying out his administration’s plan for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

Biden has already issued more than three dozen executive orders that cover issues including abortion, immigration and border security, economic regulations, COVID-19, criminal justice, and climate change. The pace of Biden’s executive orders is largely unprecedented this early in one’s presidency, with presidents previously spreading their first executive orders, especially over more controversial matters, over several months.

While Republicans have predictably criticized Biden’s orders, many of which reverse or rollback former President Trump’s own executive orders, some Democrats have also said that the administration should focus on legislative action to increase the scope of change as well as make such changes more permanent. Executive orders can easily be reversed by future administrations and cannot change or add to existing legislation.

Pushing through his agenda in Congress in the coming weeks could prove difficult for the president. He faces an evenly split Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris would cast a tie-breaking vote and a House of Representatives with a slim Democratic majority. In addition, the next few weeks are likely to be consumed with the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump, who was impeached just before his term ended over his alleged role in encouraging rioters who broke into and occupied the Capitol building on January 6. Regular Senate business is likely to be postponed or curtailed during trial proceedings.

 

Vaccine Rollout Begins

The long-awaited coronavirus vaccines rolled out publicly this month, with three major ones approved by government regulators. This follows months of clinical trials and some doubt whether such vaccines would be ready by the year’s end. The rollouts  have not been without their challenges, however, as governments work to get the pandemic under control.

Pfizer’s vaccine was the first to be announced as clinically effective and safe, followed closely by Moderna’s vaccine, which uses new messenger RNA technology to create immunity. The challenges of these two vaccines, and from some others that will follow, include the need for two doses of the vaccine to be given days apart and the need for cold storage. Pfizer’s must be stored at temperatures hat are colder than Antarctica (around 70 Celsius), while Moderna’s must be kept at temperatures closer to a regular freezer (-20 Celsius).

Another vaccine, developed by researchers at the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, does not require the cold temperatures that Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines need and can instead be stored in a standard refrigerator. The United Kingdom has approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for use in the country, and this vaccine will likely be approved in other countries over time.

Vaccine immunizations are currently prioritized to healthcare workers and those at severe risk of complications, such as the elderly and immunosuppressed. Throughout 2021, as more vaccine doses are created and logistical issues sort themselves out, a greater share of the population, including healthy people with no pre-existing conditions, will begin receiving doses of the vaccine.

 

Coronavirus Pandemic Reaches Highest Levels This Month

Coronavirus cases skyrocketed this past month in the United States, with several days of the month posting record infection numbers. While cases numbers have stopped climbing in recent days, the massive increase this month again put stress on health systems and led politicians scrambling to respond.

Many of the COVID-19 hotspots this time were in rural areas in the middle of the country. Previous hotspots in the US had mostly been in urban areas in large states.

The ongoing pandemic has continued to stress certain sectors. Restaurants and bars struggle as government mandates limit the number of customers able to be served in addition to public skepticism of the safety of eating out. Meanwhile public transportation systems faced greatly diminished ridership, diminishing their often already stressed finances.

Across the world, coronavirus case increase led to varying responses. Some nations, like the UK and Turkey, renewed curfew and lockdown measures in an effort to stem the virus.

Several companies, including Pfizer and Moderna, have announced success in their vaccine trials, bringing hope of a general vaccine sometime in 2021.

 

Coronavirus Cases Surge as US, Europe Face Likely Second Wave

The coronavirus pandemic has again shifted into another phase of heightened infection rates, with the United States reporting record case numbers, with Wednesday seeing over 80,000 new reported infections. While the US has remained the country with the most cases throughout most of the pandemic, European countries are experiencing what is being described as the ‘second wave’ of the epidemic, leading to a new series of restrictions and lockdowns. French President Emmanuel Marcon has announced a new one-month lockdown, and Germany’s federal and state governments have closed bars, restaurants, and most forms of public entertainment.

 

Coronavirus Cases Trending Down in US, Reemerge in Other Countries

Global coronavirus cases have topped 25 million worldwide as countries around the world struggle to contain the outbreak which began late last year in Hubei Province, China, with worldwide deaths currently numbered at 843,000. France and Spain are among the countries to report a resurgence in their COVID-19 numbers, with the latter being one of the centers of the outbreak when it began its worldwide spread in early 2020.

The United States, the worldwide leader in coronavirus cases and deaths, has seen some encouraging signs as the summer nears its end. New York and New Jersey continue to have low numbers of cases and deaths after suffering at the start of the pandemic in the US, and the later hotspots of Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen their case and death numbers drop off drastically since their peak in July. However, other areas of the country continue to suffer outbreaks, often linked to mass gatherings such as parties. Colleges and universities have clamped down on such gatherings, with some deciding to cancel in-person classes after attempting to reopen for the semester.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.

Coronavirus Cases Spike Across the US, World

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached 10 million this month as governments struggle to contain the spread of the deadly virus. The resulting infections have led to at least confirmed 500,000 deaths.

In the United States, the majority of states have reported a rising number of cases, with the only region spared from the uptick being the Northeast, which was most affected when the outbreak started in March and April. Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a large jump in cases, prompting state and local leaders to reinstitute certain control measures, such as closing bars, mandating mask wearing, and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Around one quarter of confirmed deaths worldwide have occurred in the United States, whose death toll currently stands at around 125,000. The worldwide number of deaths is likely higher than 500,000 because of underreporting and the suspiciously low numbers reported by the Chinese government, especially given China’s role as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Vice President Mike Pence has announced support for wearing masks in a recent interview with CBS News, though President Donald Trump himself has been ambivalent about encouraging masks and has not encouraged mask wearing mandates. Wearing surgical and cloth masks can reduce the spread of the virus to others if the wearer is sick, but has not been shown to offer significant protection to the wearer. The US government has encouraged protective N95 standard masks to be used only by health care professionals and other emergency responders. Notably, US health officials discouraged the purchase of N95 masks by individuals at the beginning of the outbreak, misrepresenting their effectiveness to the public, in an attempt to preserve them for health care workers.

Re-openings Continue as Coronavirus Continues to Strike

States across the US have begun or continued their efforts to re-open their economies while the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect thousands across the country and around the world. Politicians and health officials have cited a declining trend in new cases and the reduced threat of hospital overcrowding in allowing certain businesses to re-open, often at a reduced capacity. For example, restaurants in Texas were initially allowed to re-open at 25% capacity, with further increases scheduled.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have increased in Latin America, believed to be the next hotspot for the pandemic. Brazil’s dramatic increase has led US President Donald Trump to block entrance of those from Brazil into the US. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been criticized for not taking aggressive enough measures to fight the virus, as has Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Health officials in San Diego have said that nearly half of the new cases of the virus are related to recent border crossings, which have nominally been closed to regular visitors and only open to business.

Reopenings Slowly Begin as Coronavirus Pandemic Continues

Some states will begin efforts to reopen more portions of their economy after over a month of widespread lockdowns and stay at home orders aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes the disease COVID-19.

Earlier this month, a coalition of northeastern US governors formed in an effort to coordinate efforts to allow certain businesses to reopen. The Northeast has been hit especially hard by the pandemic, with New York and New Jersey composing the most active hotspot for new infections, and Massachusetts recently emerging as a center of new cases. Other hotspots include Michigan (especially the Detroit metropolitan area) as well as Louisiana.

Texas is the largest state so far to announce large-scale reopening efforts. For example, on Friday restaurants will be allowed to serve at 25% seating capacity, with counties with less than five confirmed cases (mostly rural and low population) will be allowed to reopen at 50% capacity. Over time the capacity allowance will be increased if the number of infections remains stable or decreases. While Texas has been spared the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, concerns over new infections linger, with Lamar County (home of Paris, Texas) reporting a stark increase in infections just before reopening efforts. Bars and movie theaters will continue to be closed.

Around the world, countries continue to face the worst public health crisis many of them have faced since the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, himself having been infected by the virus, announced that the UK was ‘past the peak’ in infection cases.

Coronavirus Pandemic Infects the World

The United States, according to official numbers, leads the world in coronavirus disease (officially named COVID-19) cases at over 186,000 confirmed infections. China, the origin country of the outbreak, reports just under 82,000 cases, though given the country’s central role in the virus’s original spread and subsequent transmission as well as its much larger population, that number likely significantly underestimates the number of infected.

Countries with a higher per capita rate of infection than the US include Spain and Italy, which also have had higher mortality rates (~10%). The US, in contrast, has had a mortality rate of around 2%. The true mortality rate of those infected is likely lower than these reported numbers, as it only takes into account confirmed cases. Many coronavirus cases are asymptomatic or only show mild symptoms.

Most states in the US have issued “stay-at-home” orders, which only allow limited travel to essential work functions or for shopping. The New York metropolitan area has been especially hit hard, with local morgues running out of room for the dead and refrigerated truck being brought into service as temporary morgues.

China has begun to lift restrictions on Wuhan, the city in which the virus originated (likely at a wet market in which live animals and meat are sold). The country has come under international criticism for its handling of the disease as its government worked to silence the voices of those raising concerns of the virus when it first appeared late last year. The most visible whistleblower, Li Wenliang, died after raising the alarm on the virus. The Chinese government had targeted Li in December 2019, accusing him of “spreading rumors.”

Coronavirus Causes Worry as Markets React

The coronavirus outbreak, linked to the virus now-named COVID-19, has sickened nearly 90,000 worldwide, with most infections occurring in China, the virus’s origin point, though rapidly spreading across the globe, including major outbreaks in Iran and Italy.

The virus, which causes a respiratory disease similar to influenza, spreads through respiratory droplets emitted from the body during sneezing and coughing. Cases can develop into pneumonia and possibly turn fatal. The fatality rate for the disease is estimated at 1-3%.

The prospect of a pandemic, in which the disease infects a significant population in most areas of the world, has sent shockwaves through the global markets, with many indices having their worst week since the financial crisis in 2008. The S&P 500 and the DJIA both fell around 10% this past week, with the DJIA shedding 3500 points.

In addition, concerns over the availability of health supplies, such as face masks, have surfaced as many of these products are made in China, specifically in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak.