Southeast Reels from Hurricanes: Helene and Milton’s Devastation

The US Southeast continues to face significant challenges in the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which struck in rapid succession in late September and early October. Hurricane Helene resulted in over 200 fatalities, marking it as the deadliest mainland US hurricane since Katrina. Hurricane Milton, while having a lower death toll at 35, virtually ties Helene for total damages, making the combined damages from both hurricanes estimated at just under $175 billion.

In response, the federal government has approved nearly $2 billion in aid for six affected states, and FEMA has deployed over 1,400 personnel to assist with recovery efforts. State governments have also mobilized National Guard units and established emergency hotlines to support residents.

As communities begin the arduous process of rebuilding, many residents remain without power or running water. Despite these hardships, there are stories of resilience and solidarity. In devastated western North Carolina, volunteers are using mules to deliver supplies to remote areas as restoration contractors work tirelessly to repair homes and businesses.

 

Hurricane Milton Intensifies, Threatens Florida's West Coast

Latest projected path of Milton from NOAA and
the National Weather Service

Hurricane Milton, currently churning in the Gulf of Mexico, is rapidly intensifying and poses a significant threat to Florida's west coast. The storm, which formed on Saturday, is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall midweek.

As of Sunday morning, Hurricane Milton was located more than 800 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The storm is moving eastward at 6 mph and is forecast to continue on this general path before turning northeast towards Florida.

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Milton could become a Category 4 hurricane with winds of up to 140 mph as it approaches the Florida Peninsula. However, there is still uncertainty in the forecast, with some models suggesting the storm could reach Category 5 strength. The primary threats from Hurricane Milton include life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall. Forecasters warn that certain areas could receive up to a foot of rain by Wednesday night, leading to potential flooding of waterways and streets. Storm surge and wind impacts are expected to begin as early as late Tuesday or Wednesday along Florida's west coast.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, many of which are still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Helene, which struck the state less than two weeks ago. Mandatory evacuations are already in place in some parts of the state, and officials are urging residents to finalize their storm preparations immediately.

Residents in the potential path of Hurricane Milton are advised to have their hurricane preparedness plans ready and to heed any guidance from local officials. This includes stocking up on essential supplies, securing outdoor items, and being prepared to evacuate if ordered to do so. Some locations are already offering sandbags to residents.

The rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton is particularly concerning given the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the minimal vertical wind shear, conditions that are conducive to strengthening. These same conditions led to the explosive growth of Helene just two weeks ago. The National Hurricane Center emphasizes that regardless of the exact strength at landfall, there is growing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.

Hurricane and storm surge watches are expected to be issued for portions of the Florida coastline by Sunday. Residents throughout Florida, as well as in the Florida Keys and northwestern Bahamas, are urged to stay informed about the storm's progress and be prepared to take action if necessary.

This article was written with the help of AI.

Hurricane Idalia Strikes Florida and East Coast

Hurricane Idalia struck Florida as a category 3 hurricane on Wednesday after briefly peaking in strength as a category 4 storm. Idalia struck the Big Bend area of Florida, where the Florida Panhandle connects to the larger Florida peninsula.

Idalia’s storm surge flooded coastal communities and low-lying inland areas. However, Idalia’s damage was nowhere near the destruction brought by last year’s Hurricane Ian, which struck as a strong category 4 storm in Southwest Florida, devastating the cities of Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel. Unlike Ian, Idalia was a fast-moving storm, leaving less time for storm surge and heavy rains to inundate populated centers. Still, insured losses from Idalia are projected to exceed $9 billion. Ian’s damages, in contrast, were $113 billion, making it the third-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record after Katrina and Harvey.

After striking Florida, Idalia moved up into Georgia, bringing rain and wind as it weakened over land. Idalia is currently hugging the North Carolina coast and moving offshore, where it is projected to move out to sea and possibly affect Bermuda in the coming days as weak hurricane.

 

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Coronavirus Cases Trending Down in US, Reemerge in Other Countries

Global coronavirus cases have topped 25 million worldwide as countries around the world struggle to contain the outbreak which began late last year in Hubei Province, China, with worldwide deaths currently numbered at 843,000. France and Spain are among the countries to report a resurgence in their COVID-19 numbers, with the latter being one of the centers of the outbreak when it began its worldwide spread in early 2020.

The United States, the worldwide leader in coronavirus cases and deaths, has seen some encouraging signs as the summer nears its end. New York and New Jersey continue to have low numbers of cases and deaths after suffering at the start of the pandemic in the US, and the later hotspots of Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen their case and death numbers drop off drastically since their peak in July. However, other areas of the country continue to suffer outbreaks, often linked to mass gatherings such as parties. Colleges and universities have clamped down on such gatherings, with some deciding to cancel in-person classes after attempting to reopen for the semester.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point.