Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

Coronavirus Pandemic Reaches Highest Levels This Month

Coronavirus cases skyrocketed this past month in the United States, with several days of the month posting record infection numbers. While cases numbers have stopped climbing in recent days, the massive increase this month again put stress on health systems and led politicians scrambling to respond.

Many of the COVID-19 hotspots this time were in rural areas in the middle of the country. Previous hotspots in the US had mostly been in urban areas in large states.

The ongoing pandemic has continued to stress certain sectors. Restaurants and bars struggle as government mandates limit the number of customers able to be served in addition to public skepticism of the safety of eating out. Meanwhile public transportation systems faced greatly diminished ridership, diminishing their often already stressed finances.

Across the world, coronavirus case increase led to varying responses. Some nations, like the UK and Turkey, renewed curfew and lockdown measures in an effort to stem the virus.

Several companies, including Pfizer and Moderna, have announced success in their vaccine trials, bringing hope of a general vaccine sometime in 2021.

 

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

Interesting Data Points from This Month's Election

While President Trump continues to challenge the legitimacy of the this month's election and President-elect Biden begins the transition effort, the election has provided some interesting data points that election data wonks and otherwise political junkies can pore over for months to come.

Death of the Bellwethers 

Several counties across the US have been excellent bellwethers in recent elections, voting for the ultimate winner of the election (in the electoral college, not necessarily in the popular vote). The most accurate one was Vigo County, Indiana, home of Terra Haute, which has voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1956 on.

 Until 2020. 

And it wasn't alone. In fact, most notable bellwether counties failed to predict Joe Biden's win. Hidalgo County, NM has predicted all elections successfully since 1972, but voted for Trump this year. Other counties that failed included Essex County, VT, Westmoreland County, VA, Coos County, NH, and Darlington County, SC, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Successful bellwether counties included Blaine County, MT, Kent County, DE, and Clallam County, WA, all which voted for Biden this year after voting for Trump in 2016. 

So why the shift? These counties tend to be low-population with a rural character, areas in which Trump has performed well and have been shifting towards Republicans for years. In the case of Kent County, Delaware, while it is the least populous county in the state, it contains the state capital of Dover and is in Biden's home state. Vigo County, Indiana, meanwhile seems to be swinging towards Republicans. It was not particularly close in either 2016 or 2020, and voted for a Republican governor for the first time in decades.

In conclusion, the failure of the bellwethers the cycle may be a one-off, or a signal of a long term political shift.

Longtime Republican Counties Turning Blue

Orange County, CA made news in 2016 after voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, making the former secretary of state the first Democrat to win the county since 1936. Orange County for years was synonymous with Southern Californian conservatism and was the bedrock of Republican support in the Golden State. 

The affluent suburban shift to Democrats over the past few cycles accelerated under Trump, with Orange County perhaps the most visible example. Orange County shifted even more Democratic in 2020 in the presidential race, though two Orange County House seats flipped back to the Republicans after being taken by Democrats in 2018 (these two seats were handily won by incumbent Republicans in 2016). 

Other traditionally Republican counties shifted Blue for the first time in decades. Duval County, FL, which is essentially conterminous with Jacksonville, voted Republican for the first time since 1976. Duval went for Trump in 2016, but voted for Democratic candidates for the Senate and the governorship in 2018. Likewise for Seminole County, FL a suburban county outside Orlando, which voted Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1948.

Even more dramatic was Riley County, KS, home of Manhattan and Kansas State University. The county voted Democratic for the first time ever. While Riley County has voted Democratic (sometimes by large margins) in state races, its strong Union sympathies set the stage to keep the county Republican for a century and a half. 

Tarrant County, TX, home of Fort Worth, voted Democratic (albeit by less than 1%) for the first time since 1956. Maricopa County, AZ, home of Phoenix, went blue for the first time since 1948. These were the last counties with over 1 million people to have voted Republican in 2016. 

Oklahoma County, OK, home of Oklahoma City, remained Republican by only 1.1 percentage points. In 2016 the county voted Republican by 10.5%, though third parties won 7.1% that cycle. This time around it was only 2.7%. 

In all these counties, the blue trend mostly comes from the shift in college-educated voters voting more Democratic, while Republicans have found a new base among voters without college degrees.

Republican Surprise in Hispanic-Majority Areas of Texas

South Texas, with strong Hispanic majorities in most counties, has been an ancestrally Democratic region, rarely supporting Republicans since statehood. While Biden held on to the most populous counties of Hidalgo (home of McAllen and Edinburg) and Cameron (Brownsville and Harlingen), its margins in both counties were diminished from 2016, moving against the predominant Democratic shift (to a varying degree) across most counties in the US from 2016. E

Even more dramatic were the results in less populous but even more Hispanic counties such as Zapata and Starr. Zapata voted Republican for the first time in 2016, with Trump besting Biden by 5.5 points. Starr remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by 5.1 points, though Clinton beat Trump by 60.2 pints in 2016, a 55.1 swing to the Republicans, the largest in the nation.

Traditionally Democratic-leaning counties of Val Verde (in West Texas, home of Del Rio), Jim Wells (home of Alice), Reeves (also in West Texas), LaSalle, and Frio all flipped GOP this cycle. Other Democratic counties like Maverick (home of Eagle Pass) and Webb (Laredo) remained Democratic with reduced margins. 

Trump's performance likely helped Tony Gonzalez keep Will Hurd's seat for the GOP in Texas's 23rd Congressional District and likely nearly flipped Texas's 15th (based in McAllen), which no national observers had rated competitive.

A similar circumstance occurred in 2004 with George Bush's landslide victory in the state, even narrowly carrying Cameron, which Trump failed to do this time around. Bush's strong showing in this part of the state likely derives from the favorite son effect and his strong showing among Hispanics. Trump also performed relatively strongly with Hispanics in 2020, and it remains to be seen whether these results indicate a long-term shift to the GOP or was a one-off event. 

Trump's Improvement Among Hispanics Nationally

Exit polls have Trump winning around 32-36% of the Hispanic vote, better than the approximately 29% he received in 2016. 

In Miami-Dade County, FL, home to Miami, Trump dramatically improved his performance among Hispanics from 2016, especially among Cuban-Americans. While he did not win this large county of 2.7 million, his losing margin was only approximately 7 points, versus the 29 point margin by which he lost in 2016. A similar but much smaller improvement for Trump was seen in Osceola County, FL, outside Orlando, which has a large Puerto Rican population, a demographic that tends to vote more Democratic than other Hispanic groups.

In relatively small Imperial County, CA, home of Brawley and El Centro, Biden managed to keep the county Democratic, though Trump managed to cut off about 15 points off the margin of victory for the Democrats from 2016. Imperial is approximately 80% Hispanic.

The Black Vote

The black vote experienced less dramatic movement than the Hispanic vote, though both sides made vocal appeals to the black Americans ahead of the election. As an example, DeKalb County, GA, which is heavily African-American and part of the Atlanta metro area, moved approximately 4 points to the Democrats compared to 2016. 

National exit polling had Trump doing around the same with black voters as 2016, with some showing black support for Trump slightly up. Edison's 2016 exit polling had Clinton beating Trump 88 to 8 among black voters, with 4 percent for third parties, and CNN's 2020 exit poll had Biden beating Trump 87 to 12. If these numbers are true, the overall percentage point movement is small, though for the Republicans would represent a 33.33% increase in their percentage increase of black voters.

Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

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