GOP Achieves Narrow House Majority

Republicans have won 220 seats in the US House of Representatives, two more needed to win the majority. One California seat remains too close to call, with the Democratic challenger leading the GOP incumbent by nearly 200 votes as of November 30. A GOP victory in the seat would bring the Republicans to 221 seats, one less than their majority after the 2022 midterm elections.

While the Republican majority will be narrow and will make passing President-elect Trump’s agenda more difficult, it remains a welcome development for the GOP given most election prognosticators predicting a Democratic majority in the House. Republicans managed to offset losses in New York (partially through redistricting), California, and Oregon through picking up seats in North Carolina (largely through redistricting), Pennsylvania, Michigan, Alaska, and Colorado.

The narrow majority may make Speaker Mike Johnson’s political calculus more difficult given Trump’s poaching of Elise Stefanik, Michael Waltz, and Matt Gaetz (since withdrawn but not returning to House) for his administration. With the three resignations, the House majority becomes 220-213.

 

Harris Slightly Ahead of Trump Nationally as Campaign Enters Final Stretch

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a narrow but steady lead over former President Donald Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average, edging Trump by 2 points nationally. Trump and Harris are essentially tied in the battleground states that will determine the election, with Trump slightly ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. If Trump wins all three states, he only needs to win in Pennsylvania to beat Harris, where Harris holds a very slight lead in polling. Harris has small but slightly larger leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.

Harris also picked up some polling momentum after the ABC News presidential debate, with Trump’s performance criticized as unfocused. Trump in turn criticized the debate moderators for only factchecking him and not Harris for untrue statements.

Vice presidential candidates Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance will meet this Thursday for the vice presidential debate hosted by CBS.

Harris has led Trump in fundraising since Biden’s July withdrawal from the race, raising over $540 million. In August, the DNC and Harris campaign raised $257 million to the RNC and Trump’s $85 million.

 

Harris Seeks to Continue Campaign Momentum Following DNC, CNN Interview

The 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago concluded with Vice President Kamala Harris accepting her party's presidential nomination, capping a drama-filled effort to replace Biden of the ticket following his June debate performance. The four-day event featured speeches from prominent Democrats and supporters, aiming to energize the party base and appeal to undecided voters.

Notable speakers included Oprah Winfrey, former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and former First Ladies Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. Each emphasized their party's vision for the country while critiquing Trump and Republican policies.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris's running mate, addressed the convention on the third day, highlighting his background as a teacher and governor.

In her acceptance speech on the last day, Harris sought to introduce herself to the American people by highlighting her personal background and career experiences. While she provided a broad overview of policy goals, such as strengthening the middle class, combatting climate change, and ending the war in Gaza, she largely avoided detailed policy changes in her speech.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregates, the race between Harris and Trump remains competitive. National polls show a tight contest, with Harris holding a slight edge. In battleground states, the margins are narrow. Pennsylvania, a considered a must-win state by both campaigns, shows Harris leading by just 0.5 points. Trump continues to lead narrowly in Georgia and North Carolina.

Harris did sit down for a joint interview with CNN that included Walz this past week, the first she has given since Biden’s withdrawal. In the interview, she said that her values have not changed since her 2019 campaign, but that she did change her position on banning fracking (from for to against such a ban during the 2020 campaign). She also said she had no regrets for her comments supporting Biden’s fitness to run for reelection following Biden’s widely panned debate performance.

Both campaigns are expected to focus heavily on battleground states in the coming months ahead of the September 10th debate with ABC News.

Joe Biden Exits Presidential Race, Endorses Kamala Harris

President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race on July 21 upended the general election campaign with just months to go until Election Day. His endorsement of Kamala Harris has allowed the Democratic Party to rally around Harris, who has largely united the party around her candidacy.

Biden’s decision came after sharply declining support from his fellow Democrats, lagging poll numbers against Trump, and concerns about his health. The 81-year-old president faced increasing pressure following a lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump on June 27, which heightened concerns about his capacity to lead for another term.

In a letter posted on social media, Biden expressed gratitude for the opportunity to serve and emphasized his commitment to fulfilling his duties for the remainder of his term. "While it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down," Biden wrote.

The general reaction from fellow Democrats has been a mix of praise for Biden’s service and enthusiasm for Harris’s candidacy. Prominent Democrats, including potential presidential contenders California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, quickly echoed Biden’s endorsement of the vice president.

Harris has since clinched the presumptive nomination based on pledges from the delegates attending to the Democratic National Convention in August.

 

Kamala Harris Launches Campaign GOP Retools Their Strategy

Vice President Kamala Harris has launched her campaign for the White House following President Joe Biden’s stunning withdrawal from the race on July 21. With the political landscape dramatically altered, with both the Democratic and Republican parties scrambling to adjust their strategies and messaging.

Harris wasted no time in capitalizing on the momentum generated by Biden’s endorsement, with her campaign announcing a record-breaking fundraising haul of $200 million in the 10 days after Biden’s withdrawal. This massive influx of support, much of it coming from new donors, has energized the party’s base and signaled a potential resurgence of enthusiasm among voters who had previously expressed dissatisfaction with a Biden candidacy.

Harris does face headwinds, however, as she currently polls below Trump in general election polling, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate. Harris’s supporters counter that the polling has not yet taken into account shifting voters’ attitudes now that she is the likely Democratic nominee, and they argue that she will overtake Trump as the campaign continues.

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump and his newly minted running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, are recalibrating their approach. Trump’s recent rallies have signaled a departure from unity message that followed his assassination attempt two weeks ago, with the former president reverting to his more combative style as they seek to highlight Harris’s 2020 positions on crime and immigration. The GOP is eyeing traditionally Democratic strongholds, hoping to expand the electoral map in their favor.

Democrats are also adopting a new line of attack against the Republican ticket, characterizing Trump and Vance’s policies, as well as the men themselves, as “weird.” Harris herself has echoed this sentiment, describing Republican policies as “just plain weird” during a recent rally in Atlanta. Republicans have countered that this strategy distracts from real policy disagreements between the two candidates and from Harris’s record as vice president.

Harris has not yet selected a running mate, with possible contenders being PA Gov. Josh Shapiro, KY Gov. Andy Beshear, MN Gov. Tim Walz, and AZ Sen. Mark Kelly.

 

Biden’s Debate Performance Prompts Calls to Drop Out, President Vows to Remain

President Joe Biden’s debate performance against former President Donald Trump on Thursday some calling it one of the worst debate performances by a presidential candidate in American history. During the debate, Biden spoke in a low, hoarse voice, frequently delivering meandering answers and often confusing topics. During periods when Trump was talking, he appeared at times to close his eyes and have his mouth open. In one response to a question, he ended it by saying, “We finally beat Medicare,” which he did not later attempt to correct. 

During the debate, the White House reached out to media organizations, claiming a cold had been causing his voice issues.

His performance quickly led to calls by some fellow Democrats to drop out of the race or consider doing so, a sharp reversal from the previous stance from many Democrats that Biden was sharp and able to serve a second term. On Friday, The New York Times Editorial Board called on Biden to drop out. While praising his record in office, the board said he is “engaged in a reckless gamble” that could allow Trump a second term, which they call “a danger.”

Biden’s team has dismissed these calls so far, dismissing the New York Times editorial and trying to refocus the attention to Trump.

If Biden were to drop out of the race, his campaign cash could only be transferred to Harris presidential campaign. Should the party’s delegates choose not to proceed with a Harris nomination, the new nominee would need to raise new funds for the campaign against Trump.

While most of the post-debate focus has been on Biden, Trump’s performance has also been discussed. While Trump’s answers were far more forceful than Biden’s and he did not appear to lose his train of thought, he faced criticism for dodging questions on the environment, January 6th, and other topics, as well as providing misleading or false responses to other questions. His non-committal answer on whether he would accept the results of election (only if it is ‘fair and legal and good’), also attracted criticism.

A Morning Consult poll after the debate showed that 60% of respondents believe Biden should drop out of the race. A similar CBS News poll showed 54% of registered voters do not believe Trump should run for president, with 46% saying he should.

 

Biden Ramps Up Campaign as Trump Faces Financial Headwinds

The Biden campaign raised around $26 million from a New York City fundraiser last week attended by celebrities and two of the three former Democratic presidents. This adds to the president’s and the Democrats’ large fundraising advantage over Donald Trump and the Republicans.

The fundraiser consisted of musical performances by Queen Latifah and Lizzo, along with a panel discussion with Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton and hosted by comedian Stephen Colbert.

Biden’s team has tapped into their funds for a $30 million ad blitz in the swing states, where he largely trails Trump. Biden has closed some of the gap with Trump in these states, but he still trails Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, both in the swing states and nationally.

Trump, facing financial setbacks as a result of his legal troubles, may have gotten a needed boost when his social media company, Truth Social, went public last week under the ticker DJT. The long-awaited listing allowed the company to reach a market capitalization of over $8 billion. Trump’s 58% stake in the company gives the former president $5.2 billion, in addition to his existing wealth from real estate and other investments.

However, a large selloff of his holdings may cause the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group to fall, reducing the liquid wealth from which he can draw. Trump also faces a lock up period in which he cannot sell his shares for six months. He may, however, obtain a waiver from this restriction or borrow money against his holdings.

 

Haley Vows to Stay in Until Super Tuesday

While former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has failed to win any states so far in her quest for the Republican nomination, she has vowed to remain in the primary race until Super Tuesday. Former President Donald Trump has finished first in all states that have voted so far, including Haley’s home state of South Carolina.

Haley is the last major candidate still challenging Trump for the nomination, with all other major GOP challengers dropping out prior to the Iowa caucuses or shortly after. A longshot contender, Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley, dropped out of the race this week and endorsed Trump.

Trump leads Nikki Haley in the RealClearPolitics average of polls 78.7% to 14.5%. So far, Haley has performed much better in each state that has voted than 14.5%, though in Michigan, the latest state to hold its primary, she failed to break 30% of the vote.

Trump’s campaign has appeared to transition to general election campaigning, with Trump choosing not to mention Haley in his victory speech after the South Carolina primary.

 

2024 Contest Marked by Trump Legal Troubles, Biden Investigations

The two likely general election opponents in the 2024 presidential race are both dealing with their own legal issues. Former President Donald Trump’s are more pressing given his three state and federal indictments, but President Biden faces increased scrutiny over alleged involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings, with calls for impeachment growing among congressional Republicans.

Trump was indicted for the third time this month; in a superseding indictment, he is now alleged to have obstructed justice by scheming to erase video surveillance at Mar-a-Lago in an attempt to cover up his retention of classified material. Trump has denied the charges.

Trump is also expected to face another federal indictment over his actions in challenging the results of the 2020 election and the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. He may also face a state indictment in Georgia over his actions to overturn Biden’s victory in the state in 2020.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden remain the subjects of House GOP inquiries. Biden has long denied any knowledge of his son’s business dealings, which have been linked to previous money laundering, tax evasion, and foreign lobbying investigations, which have led to misdemeanor failure to pay tax charges (Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to those charges after a recent plea deal was effectively rejected during a recent hearing).

Republicans have so far failed to tie Joe Biden directly to Hunter’s business activities, though an FBI document reporting a source’s claim that Joe Biden was bribed by Ukrainian company Burisma has been uncovered. To date, no evidence to confirm that claim has been found.

 

Biden Announces Reelection Campaign

President Joe Biden’s campaign released an announcement video this past week that formally announced his reelection bid in 2024, a move widely expected. Biden enters the race the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with his two announced opponents, self-help author Marianne Williamson and environmental and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polling in the high single digits to low double digits. 

The Republican field, while becoming more crowded, remains  overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and to a lesser extent, the unannounced campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has retained a strong consistent lead over DeSantis throughout the past few months, experiencing a bump following his indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for business falsification charges related to the 2016 hush money payment to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels). DeSantis has a consistent second-place lead, and the only other candidate, unannounced or otherwise, consistently polling in double digits.

Other Republican candidates include former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is running a campaign appealing to her gender and traditional Republican politics, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump’s influence over the GOP, former California gubernatorial candidate and radio host Larry Elder, and technology entrepreneur and political activist Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee and is expected to announce a run in the near future.

 

Smaller GOP Gains Than Expected Lead to Split Congress

The expected red wave, in which Republicans were predicted to make major gains across the country, may not have materialized the way some Republican had hoped, but they did manage to gain the seats needed to take control of the US House of Representatives, ending unified Democratic control of Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats were able to keep their Senate majority and possibly expand it, pending the result of the Georgia’s Senate runoff in December.

So far, 220 seats have been declared won by Republicans in the House, with two seats still uncalled, though Republicans lead in both and are likely to win. However, while gaining control of the House is an undeniable victory for the GOP, their majority (likely 222-213) is smaller than what most were expecting. A GOP majority of at least 230 seats in the next congress would have given their leadership more breathing room for difficult votes. Now, with a narrow majority to contend, passing their favored legislation, or even blocking certain Democratic-backed legislation, will likely prove a more difficult task to manage.

Republicans fell short in their quest to reclaim the Senate majority, losing their Pennsylvania seat and failing so far to pick up any Democratic seats. While Republicans could pick up a seat in Georgia in December should Herschel Walker defeat incumbent Raphael Warnock, that result would lead to a 50-50 split, under which Democrats would still retain control.

The Republicans also fell short of their ambitions in state governments, only picking up one governorship (Nevada) while losing three (Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona).

 

Election Predictions: Election Day 2022

Here are our predictions for the House, Senate, and governor races for today's election:

House

Senate

Governors

Let us know where you agree and disagree in the comments!

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 

General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.