Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 

Coronavirus Cases Spike Across the US, World

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached 10 million this month as governments struggle to contain the spread of the deadly virus. The resulting infections have led to at least confirmed 500,000 deaths.

In the United States, the majority of states have reported a rising number of cases, with the only region spared from the uptick being the Northeast, which was most affected when the outbreak started in March and April. Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a large jump in cases, prompting state and local leaders to reinstitute certain control measures, such as closing bars, mandating mask wearing, and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Around one quarter of confirmed deaths worldwide have occurred in the United States, whose death toll currently stands at around 125,000. The worldwide number of deaths is likely higher than 500,000 because of underreporting and the suspiciously low numbers reported by the Chinese government, especially given China’s role as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Vice President Mike Pence has announced support for wearing masks in a recent interview with CBS News, though President Donald Trump himself has been ambivalent about encouraging masks and has not encouraged mask wearing mandates. Wearing surgical and cloth masks can reduce the spread of the virus to others if the wearer is sick, but has not been shown to offer significant protection to the wearer. The US government has encouraged protective N95 standard masks to be used only by health care professionals and other emergency responders. Notably, US health officials discouraged the purchase of N95 masks by individuals at the beginning of the outbreak, misrepresenting their effectiveness to the public, in an attempt to preserve them for health care workers.

Social Unrest Continues Across the US

The death of George Floyd in Minneapolis at the hands of four police officers last month led to social friction, and while the most violent undercurrent has ebbed for now, it has not fully abated. Protestors condemning the treatment of black Americans by police as well as society at-large have been largely peaceful, though some in the movement have insisted on more forceful measures, such as toppling statues, spray painting monuments, and occupying public spaces. The most notable of the last is the Seattle Capital Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP), which has resisted attempts to disperse as its occupants continue to control several city blocks.

Protests, Riots Continue After Death of George Floyd

The death of a black man, George Floyd, at the hands of a white police officer, Derek Chauvin, in Minneapolis this past week has led to outrage across ideological, racial, and economic lines. Chauvin had put his knee on Floyd’s neck during an arrest in which Floyd allegedly paid with a counterfeit bill at a store. Video shows Floyd not resisting when initially arrested, and it is unclear how and why he was subdued and when Chauvin put his knee on Floyd’s neck. Floyd said “I can’t breathe” during the incident in which Chauvin had his knee on Floyd’s neck for just under nine minutes. Two other police were also holding Floyd down while Chauvin was kneeling on Floyd’s neck. The four police who were involved in the arrest have been fired and Chauvin has been charged with third-degree murder and manslaughter.

Almost immediately demonstrators protested in Minneapolis, both about Floyd’s death and police conduct and brutality in the US in general. These demonstrations quickly spread to other major US cities, and many demonstrations have evolved in violent incidents as looters and rioters have joined them. Many retail establishments have been burned, as well as a police precinct in Minneapolis. Gunfire has been exchanged in several cities, including Minneapolis, Louisville, and Oakland (here a security officer was murdered).

In St. Louis, a man was dragged to death by a FedEx truck after looters attempted to hijack the truck and allegedly brandished guns at the driver.

The National Guard has been called to help quell the protests in several cities, including in Minneapolis, though their deployment has been limited in an attempt to prevent escalation. Police tactics to quell the demonstrations and riots have also been criticized.

Re-openings Continue as Coronavirus Continues to Strike

States across the US have begun or continued their efforts to re-open their economies while the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect thousands across the country and around the world. Politicians and health officials have cited a declining trend in new cases and the reduced threat of hospital overcrowding in allowing certain businesses to re-open, often at a reduced capacity. For example, restaurants in Texas were initially allowed to re-open at 25% capacity, with further increases scheduled.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have increased in Latin America, believed to be the next hotspot for the pandemic. Brazil’s dramatic increase has led US President Donald Trump to block entrance of those from Brazil into the US. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been criticized for not taking aggressive enough measures to fight the virus, as has Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Health officials in San Diego have said that nearly half of the new cases of the virus are related to recent border crossings, which have nominally been closed to regular visitors and only open to business.