Economists have been hoping for a ‘soft landing’ scenario, in which the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening would tame inflation without causing a recession. In the closing months of 2023, it appeared that this ideal scenario was in reach. with falling inflation numbers, low unemployment, and talks of cutting interest rates. However, recent economic data has cast doubt on whether the US economy can stick the landing.
Inflation numbers for the first quarter of 2024 came in higher than expected, with consumer prices rising 3.5% in March year-over-year, up from February’s 3.2% inflation rate. The target inflation rate is 2%.
Meanwhile, US GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.6% annualized, a decrease from the 3.4% growth rate in Q4 2023. This slowing growth, combined with the rising inflation, has raised fears of possible ‘stagflation,’ in which the economy shrinks while prices rise. Typically, prices decrease in recession, reducing the hardship on consumers amid job losses and reduced economic output. In a stagflation scenario, customers pay higher prices while still facing job losses.
Equity markets have pulled back in response to the data as investors have become far less confident of the Fed cutting interest rate cuts this year.
The current economic situation remains relatively strong on paper: Unemployment remains low, job growth remains strong, and inflation remains far below the high levels seen in 2021 and 2022. These positive economic indicators have been blunted by what some have called a cost of living crisis, most notably felt in rising housing costs and wages not keeping up with rising costs in general.
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