Kavanaugh Confirmation Hits Snag as FBI Launches Probe

The confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, while expected to be narrow, was not much in doubt until a little over a week ago, when an allegation of sexual assault surfaced. In the allegation, university professor Christine Blasey Ford alleged that Kavanaugh had groped her and attempted to rape her at a party back in high school. While Kavanaugh had “unequivocally” denied the charge and Ford’s recollection of some of the details of the event were vague, distrust of the nominee’s moral character grew steadily, especially after another allegation surfaced soon after. In that second charge, a woman alleged that Kavanaugh had displayed his private parts to her during a party at Yale, where both attended college. A third woman, a client of Michael Avenatti, the lawyer who represented pornographic actress Stormy Daniels in her case against Trump, alleged that Kavanaugh had helped orchestrate gang rapes of women during high school and drugged women to make them more susceptible. None of these allegations have been corroborated by other witnesses at this time, though new evidence can come to light any time to help prove either side.

Kavanaugh’s nomination was reported out of the Judiciary Committee of an 11-10 party line vote Friday, one day after both Kavanaugh and Ford gave their testimony to the committee. However, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who voted for Kavanaugh in the committee vote, said he would not vote for Kavanaugh unless a new FBI probe was launched to investigate Ford’s claims. With the GOP majority in the Senate only 51-49, Flake’s vote is crucial for the nomination’s success. President Trump has since ordered the probe, which is expected to take around one week to complete.

Trump’s Lawyer’s Confession Causes Headaches for President

The past week has seen two of Trump’s former aides finding themselves convicted of crimes. In his former campaign chair Paul Manafort’s case, he was found guilty on a number of counts related to financial fraud. However, his former lawyer Michael Cohen’s plea deal confession may prove more damaging to Trump going forward.

In his confession, Cohen acknowledged wrongdoing in arranging hush money payments to two women who claimed to have had consensual affairs with Trump shortly after he married Melania Trump. While such payments are usually not illegal, because they occurred just prior to the election, they could be considered illegal campaign contributions meant to influence the election. Cohen claims he was reimbursed by the Trump Organization and worked at the direction of Trump himself. If true, it is the first concrete case that Trump knowingly broke the law during the 2016 election.

While legal experts say Trump is unlikely to face indictment by prosecutors given his status as president, it could add fuel to Democratic efforts to impeach him, especially if Democrats take back Congress in November.

Trump, Putin Summit Leads to Political Controversy

President Trump’s recent Helsinki summit on July 16 with Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to calm relations between the two countries, though the political response to it in the US has been often critical of the tone Trump took with Putin, especially during the joint press conference.

During the press conference, Trump did not explicitly reject the findings of several US intelligence agencies which said that the Russian government had meddled in the 2016 US Presidential election by purchasing advertisements and astroturfing rallies with the intent to help Trump win over Clinton. However, Trump emphasized Putin’s denial of any meddling, calling his denials “powerful.” He also said, “President Putin says it's not Russia. I don't see any reason why it would be.” He later walked back that comment, saying that he should have said “wouldn’t” rather than “would,” which would imply that he was more inclined to believe the Russians had meddled than had not. In addition, Trump had said that both countries were to blame for deteriorated relations, which faced heavy blowback in the American media which highlighted Russia’s 2008 and 2014 invasions of Georgia and Ukraine respectively, as well as its support for dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) both expressed their agreement with the US intelligence communities findings, but did not criticize Trump directly. Democrats took a much more combative tone, with some accusing the president of treason. One lawmaker, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) seemed to suggest a coup against Trump is warranted, tweeting, “Where are our military folks ?(sic) The Commander in Chief is in the hands of our enemy!” Cohen has denied such an intent.

Kennedy’s Retirement Sets Up Battle over Future of Court

The retirement announcement of Justice Anthony Kennedy from the Supreme Court sent shockwaves throughout the political world on Wednesday. Kennedy, who had been rumored about possibly retiring sometime during Trump’s first term, will leave the court on July 31.

Kennedy was known for much of his tenure as the swing vote on the court, was still considered a conservative justice, though he voted with the liberal bloc on issues such gay rights and abortion. On controversial issues, his vote usually determined the outcome of the case given the two blocs of normally liberal and normally conservative blocs (one major exception were the Obamacare cases, in which Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the liberal bloc to uphold it, while Kennedy voted with the conservatives to overturn it).

If Trump manages to get his nominee confirmed, assuming the nominee is in the mold of his first nominee, Neil Gorsuch, who often votes with the conservative bloc and holds to the idea of interpreting the constitution as written, it could move the court further to a more conservative direction on most issues, such as abortion and labor issues. Democrats in Congress are expected to near-unanimously oppose whoever the nominee is, though some senators from states Trump won, such as Joe Donnelly from Indiana, Joe Machin from West Virginia, and Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, may vote for the eventual nominee; all three voted to confirm Gorsuch last year. However, Trump could lose support from moderate, pro-choice Republicans, such as Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Susan Collins from Maine. In addition, John McCain’s possible absence because of brain cancer may mean one fewer Republican vote.

US-North Korea Summit Still on Schedule, For Now

The summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Km Jung Un is still scheduled to occur on June 12, though whether it will occur is still a matter of debate. Dealings with the reclusive, repressive regime have been historically fraught with deceit and broken promises, most notably promises to not develop nuclear weapons.

The meeting was previously canceled by Trump earlier this month after North Korean threats to cancel the meeting and the absence of North Korean diplomats from preparation meetings. However, a secret meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in helped to decrease tension between the two countries after North Korea criticized joint US-South Korean military drills (a reason it gave for why it may cancel the meeting). Trump backtracked, saying that the summit, to be held in Singapore, may still happen. US diplomats have continued to make preparations for the summit. However, the unpredictable nature of the North Korean government, as well as the personalities involved in the summit, could once again prevent it from occurring.

At the heart of the issue is the North Korean nuclear program which has been in development for over a decade. North Korea has missiles which can reach far beyond its own borders, threatening US allies such as Japan and South Korea as well as the US itself. President Trump was involved in a diplomatic spat with the North, calling Kim “rocket man” and saying the US nuclear arsenal was far superior than Kim’s. North Korea replied by calling Trump a “dotard.”

Trump White House Faces Turnovers, Continuing Controversies

The Trump White House has continued to suffer staff turnover this month, with the secretary of state, secretary of veteran’s affairs, and national security adviser all fired this month. More strikingly, the announcements were made official, especially in the case of State Secretary Rex Tillerson, through tweets from the President himself.

None of the staff changes were completely unexpected. Tillerson and Trump had long had a rocky relationship, especially since Tillerson reportedly called Trump a “moron,” a charge Tillerson never completely denied. Both had disagreed over certain foreign policy issues, such as North Korea, publicly and often contradicted each other. Trump has nominated CIA Director Mike Pompeo to succeed Tillerson.

VA Secretary David Shulkin, who faced criticism over his handling of the VA (much like his predecessors in the Obama administration, in which Shulkin served as deputy VA secretary), will be replaced (if confirmed) presidential physician Ronny Jackson.

National Security Adviser HR McMaster will also be leaving the Trump administration; he will be replaced by John Bolton, who served under George W. Bush as US ambassador to the UN. Bolton has remained an active figure in conservative circles, appearing at conferences and delivering commentary on Fox News. Bolton, known for his hawkish foreign policy views, does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump is also facing controversy over alleged payouts by his personal attorney to conceal an affair with pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (professional name Stormy Daniels) . The affair allegedly occurred in 2006, when Trump had already married Melania. Trump has denied any affair took place.

Trump’s State of the Union Lays Out New Goals for White House

President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union as President on Tuesday, in which he laid out various proposals going forward along with touting what he views as the successes of his Presidency so far.

In the speech, Trump laid out a number of plans for the next year, most notably plans for massive infrastructure spending and immigration reform. With respect to infrastructure spending, Trump called for a $1.5 billion package which would work to build new and repair existing roads and bridges across the United States. The bill’s high cost would be paid through a combination of federal grants, state grants, and private partnerships.

In the way of immigration reform, Trump called for an end to “chain migration,” in which immigrants can work to bring their extended families to the United States. Trump’s proposal calls for such privileges to be limited to immediate family members. In addition, Trump’s plan calls for a path for citizenship, over twelve years, for the so-called “Dreamers,” who were children when their parents brought them to the US illegally. With this, Trump made clear that border security would need to be assured, most notably through his plan for a wall, at least in part.

Trump also praised the Republican tax bill passed late last year, saying it will increase the disposable income of millions of Americans and stimulate economic growth.

Trump May Push Infrastructure Plan After Tax Bill Win

The Trump administration is signaling that it may be willing to tackle an infrastructure plan following its success in pushing forward its tax plan this month. Moves for increases in infrastructure spending, unlike the GOP attempts at tax reform, have been supported by several Democrats and may have a chance to receive bipartisan support.

Trump may announce his plans for infrastructure in his upcoming State of the Union speech in 2018.

The infrastructure plan may cost upwards of $1 trillion, but will not all come out the federal treasury. A portion will be paid by the federal government, while state and local governments, along with private companies and investors, will also contribute to the projects laid out in any plan.

Increases in infrastructure spending have long been the goal of numerous politicians, Republicans and Democrats alike, with projects including new roads, bridges, terminals, etc. However, concerns over increases to the national debt (already an issue with the recently passed tax bill) could pose an issue, especially with Republicans.

Republicans Pass Tax Law, What It Means for Americans

Republicans passed the first major overhaul to the United States tax code in over thirty years this month, with President Donald Trump saying the plan will “deliver more jobs, higher wages, and massive tax relief for American families and for American companies.”

The plan was pushed by Republican leaders after the GOP Congress wanted to deliver a major piece of legislation before the year’s end, and thus deliver Trump a legislative achievement in his first year, and to pass it while they still held a 52-48 majority in the Senate after they lost a seat as a result of the Alabama special election.

The new law reduces  the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, moving the rate from among the highest in the developed world to more in line with the tax rates of other countries. In addition, it shaves off the tax rate across the board while keeping the seven tax brackets. These cuts to the individual tax rates, unlike the corporate tax rate cut, is temporary and will expire in 2025.

It also caps deductions for local and state taxes at $10,000, which can lead to higher taxes for those living in highly taxed states, such as New York, California, and Illinois.

The bill was unanimously opposed by Democrats in both houses of Congress and was opposed by a number of Republicans in the House who came from highly taxed states.

The new tax cuts are projected to add more than $1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, accounting for lost revenues stemming from the lower rates but also possible increased revenue as businesses and individuals have more money to invest, thus increasing economic activity.

Former Trump Campaign Chair Paul Manafort Indicted

Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort turned himself in on Monday to the FBI after the probe by former FBI Director Robert Mueller pushed for charges related to Manafort’s lobbying work in Ukraine. The probe, which was directed to investigate Russian meddling in the 2016 US election, led to a raid on Manafort’s home in July and charges this week related to alleged money laundering. Manafort’s longtime associate Rick Gates was also charged.

Both have pled not guilty.

Mueller has also announced that Trump campaign staffer George Papadopoulos lied to the FBI about Russian attempts to contact the Trump campaign in 2016.

Roy Moore Wins Alabama Senate Primary

Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore defeated incumbent Sen. Luther Strange in the Republican primary in Alabama for the special election triggered by Jeff Session’s resignation to become US attorney general. Moore defeated Luther 55-45% in the runoff, after coming in first in the primary in August. Luther was an appointee to fill Sessions’s seat until an election could be held.

Moore, who was noted for his refusals to remove the Ten Commandments from a courtroom or recognize the legality of same-sex marriage during his previous terms as chief justice (for both he was suspended by Alabama’s judiciary board), ran with the support of many of Trump’s supporters (such as Steve Bannon, Seb Gorka, and Nigel Farage), but not from Trump himself, who supported Strange. Though Trum is popular in Alabama, his support for Strange was not enough for his victory.

Trump has promised support for Moore in the general, which Moore has said he welcomes, and will face Democrat Doug Jones on December 12.

Scaramucci Removed from White House Role

Scaramucci, pictured here in 2016, seemed to be bringing
a more cordial attitude to the White House communications
office before revealing his animosity towards then
White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus in profane
conversation
Credit: Gage Skidmore

Anthony Scaramucci, a financier with a history of political involvement, was removed Monday by from his White House job as communications director before even formally stepping into the role. In a twist of fate, he was reportedly removed at the behest of the new White House chief of staff, former general and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly, who replaced Reince Priebus, who Scaramucci wanted gone.


Scaramucci's tenure coincided with a major shakeup in White House staff. Sean Spicer, who had been serving as acting White House communications director after his rocky tenure as press secretary (now filled by Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee), resigned in protest following Scaramucci's hiring. Scaramucci played tribute to Spicer, and seemed to enjoy engaging with the White House press corps in his first press conference following the announcement of his hiring by the White House.

Scaramucci's profane rant to a reporter, in which he accused Priebus of being a leaker of confidential information and would be fired soon, no doubt contributed to his political demise. In addition, Scaramucci had boasted that he would only be reporting to Trump, and not to the chief of staff. Though Priebus was removed on Friday, Scaramucci was not far behind.

Scaramucci's actions and attitude simply proved too much for Kelly, who is seeking to exert control over the chaotic administration, which has suffered controversy after controversy relating to its relationship with the press, allegations of collusion with the Russian government during the 2016 campaign, and failure to pass a Republican-sponsored health care overhaul, a mainstay of Republican electoral promises for the past seven years.

GOP Health Care Effort Flounders

Republican efforts to repeal the Obama’s signature health care law, or at least make changes to it, has continued to fail to produce fruit as Democrats continue their steadfast opposition and Senate Republicans cannot reach a consensus on the path forward.

GOP moderates, especially Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AL), and conservatives such as Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY) have considered elements of the other side’s plans untenable in getting them for a final bill. Plans that would have repealed parts of the bill and replace them with GOP plans have failed, as have plans to repeal the plan without a replacement one waiting.

On early Friday morning, the Senate rejected a so-called “skinny repeal,” which would have repealed the individual mandate, the most hated part of Obamacare by many Republicans, and eliminated certain taxes. The bill was notable in that House Speaker Paul Ryan gave assurances to some senators that the House will not pass that bill, giving them clearance to vote for it without having to be held fully accountable if made law. Still, it failed, with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) joining Collins and Murkowski in voting it down.

Trump Open to Opening More of Atlantic, Arctic to Drilling

The White House has sent signals that it could open up more of the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans to oil exploration, which would reverse prior Obama administration policy prohibiting petroleum drilling in those areas. The Interior Department is also exploring opportunities to allow more drilling off the coast of most of the US mainland.

These steps comes as Trump aims to make the US a greater player in the world oil market, though the possible expansion in supply comes at a time when oil prices are at a low point. Additional increases in supply could translate into reduced costs in the rest of the economy, but greater losses for many oil producers.

Trump Selects Neil Gorsuch for Supreme Court

President Trump announced his selection for the Supreme Court seat left vacant by the late Justice Antonin Scalia last year, with Neil Gorsuch of the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals as his pick. Trump said of Gorsuch at the announcement address, "The qualifications of Judge Gorsuch are beyond dispute. He is the man of our country and a man who our country really needs and needs badly to ensure the rule of law and the rule of justice."

Gorsuch has served on the Tenth Circuit Appeal Court since 2006, where he was nominated by President George W. Bush and confirmed by voice vote. A native of Denver, Colorado, he is the son of  Anne Gorsuch Burford, Environmental Protection Agency head under Reagan. He received his undergraduate degree from Columbia University, where he founded The Fed, a satirical newspaper, along with Andrew Levy, now a Fox News personality. He graduated from Harvard Law School and received a degree from the University of Oxford as a Marshall Scholar.

Calling Scalia a "lion of the law" at the announcement, Gorsuch is known for his advocacy an originalist, textualist approach in interpreting the Constitution, similar to that of Scalia. Gorsuch will likely most often side with the conservative side of the court should he be confirmed, giving the court a 5-4 conservative majority, with Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy (for whom Gorsuch had once clerked) as the swing vote.

Democrats have begun to announce their opposition to Gorsuch, many angered that Obama's nominee, Merrick Garland, received no hearing or vote by the Republican Senate. Sen. Jeff Merkely (D-OR) released a press statement, saying, "This is a stolen seat being filled by an illegitimate and extreme nominee (Gorsuch), and I will do everything in my power to stand up against this assault on the Court.”

If more Democrats feel the same way, it could set a lengthy, tense confirmation battle in the weeks ahead.