The retirement announcement of Justice Anthony Kennedy from the Supreme Court sent shockwaves throughout the political world on Wednesday. Kennedy, who had been rumored about possibly retiring sometime during Trump’s first term, will leave the court on July 31.
Kennedy was known for much of his tenure as the swing vote on the court, was still considered a conservative justice, though he voted with the liberal bloc on issues such gay rights and abortion. On controversial issues, his vote usually determined the outcome of the case given the two blocs of normally liberal and normally conservative blocs (one major exception were the Obamacare cases, in which Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the liberal bloc to uphold it, while Kennedy voted with the conservatives to overturn it).
If Trump manages to get his nominee confirmed, assuming the nominee is in the mold of his first nominee, Neil Gorsuch, who often votes with the conservative bloc and holds to the idea of interpreting the constitution as written, it could move the court further to a more conservative direction on most issues, such as abortion and labor issues. Democrats in Congress are expected to near-unanimously oppose whoever the nominee is, though some senators from states Trump won, such as Joe Donnelly from Indiana, Joe Machin from West Virginia, and Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, may vote for the eventual nominee; all three voted to confirm Gorsuch last year. However, Trump could lose support from moderate, pro-choice Republicans, such as Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Susan Collins from Maine. In addition, John McCain’s possible absence because of brain cancer may mean one fewer Republican vote.
