Elizabeth Warren Drops in polls, Pete Buttigieg Rises

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) standing in the polls has fallen this month with the senator now trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire. In her place, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has taken her place as the rising star of the Democratic race, polling first place in both states and remaining in fourth place nationally, behind Biden, Sanders, and Warren. They are the only candidates polling in the double digits; Sen. Kamala Harris, the fifth highest polling candidate, is at 3.8% (D-CA) in national polls.

Democratic Field Narrows, Republican’s Grows by One

The 2020 Presidential field continues to change as several Democrats drop out of the race, while one Republican joins in an attempt to deny President Donald Trump the GOP nomination.

This month, four major candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race: former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton, and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. None of the candidates managed to gain major support during any of the campaign, with Moulton never making the debate stage and Gillibrand (the highest-polling one of the group) only scoring 3% in one poll and usually averaging only 1%.

This still leaves well over a dozen candidates in the mix, though only three, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warrant, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, poll in the double digits. The rest, including relatively high polling candidates California Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are in the single digits.

However, recent polls have indicated that any of those candidates has a polling advantage over Trump in the general, though the election is still over a year away, and the political environment can easily shift more in favor (or even less in favor) of Trump’s reelection prospects.

Meanwhile, former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois announced a longshot bid to challenge Trump for the GOP primary this week. Walsh, once a strong Trump supporter and a conservative firebrand, has come under fire for controversial and racially tinged statements made in his past.

Democrats Debate Again, 10 Yesterday and 10 Today

The race for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 continues after ten Democratic candidates met in Detroit last night for the second primary debate, with ten more to go tonight.

Last night’s debate featured the two highest-polling progressive candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Other relatively high-polling candidates (though still in the single digits) were South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

The debate demonstrated sharp differences between the progressive wing, led by Sanders and Warren, and the relatively more moderate wing, including Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Some of these differences included whether to abolish private health insurance in favor of government-run insurance, providing free health care to those residing in the US illegally, and decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Places of agreement between both camps included providing a government-run insurance program (regardless of whether private insurance would still be allowed), instituting more gun control, and placing higher taxes on wealthy Americans.

Ten more candidates will debate tonight, including two other high-polling candidates, the frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden is considered relatively more moderate than many of the other candidates (though still liberal by national standards), and will likely face progressive criticisms from Harris and other candidates.

Democrats Open Up Primary Season with First Debate

NBC hosted the first Democratic debate on June 26 and June 27, with twenty of the twenty-four declared major candidates participating. Ten candidates debated each day, and though NBC said the order was randomly allocated, four of the five top-polling candidates went on the second day, including frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden.

The first debate, in which Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (currently second place in polls) participated, mostly focused on the candidates introducing themselves to the American people and what their main interests are. For example, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan focused on winning back working class voters while Washington Gov. Jay Inslee focused on climate change, which he has made a central issue to his campaign. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke was the subject of repeated attacks, most notably from Texas Rep. Julian Castro, who criticized his immigration plan, most notably in that it would not change unauthorized border crossings from a criminal to a civil offense (similar to parking tickets).

The second debate featured even sharper criticisms against each other, with Biden the most frequent target. California Rep. Eric Swalwell criticized Biden’s longevity in politics and argued its was time for someone new to be the party’s standard bearer. California Senator Kamala Harris criticized Biden’s earlier statements that spoke favorably of former segregationist politicians (though not their positions; his comments were on their “civility”) and his opposition to mandatory busing, a program aimed at integrating schools. Biden refused to apologize for his position on busing and also did not walk back his earlier comments on working with the segregationist senators.