Democrats in Congress Struggle to Pass Biden’s Agenda

Democrats have continued to struggle in passing President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda through Congress. Two bills, one focusing on physical infrastructure and one on social spending and climate change, are in limbo as more moderate Democrats and the party’s progressive wing battle to include (or remove) parts of the social spending bill, now titled the ‘Build Back Better Act.’

Moderates have criticized the large size of the social spending bill and have succeeded in removing multiple provisions from it, such as free community college, paid family leave, longer extensions of the child tax credit, and green electricity plans. Progressives have criticized these cuts and prevented passage of the infrastructure bill to ensure leverage over the social spending bill.

 

Democrats Struggle to Pass Biden’s Agenda

Democratic leaders in Congress must thread the needle between the ideologic ends of their party as they attempt to pass two massive spending bills, one geared towards upgrading and adding to the nation’s physical infrastructure and one aiming to increase the social safety net and expand other social programs. The cost of the first is estimated to be around $1.2 trillion; the second around $3.5 trillion. President Joe Biden has made both plans centerpieces for his agenda.

The $3.5 trillion plan can be passed under Senate reconciliation rules, in which a simple majority is needed to pass the plan. This would allow it to pass without any Republican votes. However, it faces an uncertain future in the House if moderate House Democrats oppose it. Their opposition, in turn, could lead progressives to oppose the infrastructure bill. Not passing either bill would hand President Biden a major political defeat in his first year in office.

Progressive Democrats have vowed to vote against the infrastructure plan, which enjoys some bipartisan support, if the social spending plan is not passed to their liking. Meanwhile some moderates in the Senate have balked at the large price tag of the $3.5 trillion plan, which Democrat leaders claim is fully paid for by tax increases primarily on wealthy households and from increased IRS audits. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kirsten Sinema (D-AZ) have both said that they will not support $3.5 trillion in new spending.

Adding to these challenges is the need to raise the federal debt ceiling to prevent default on the government’s financial obligations. The House and Senate did reach an agreement to avoid a government shutdown, which Biden signed into law on Thursday.

 

Biden’s Approval Drops Amid Several Challenges

President Biden’s approval rating has dropped in recent weeks as the administration attempts to recover from the chaotic evacuation as American troops left Afghanistan. Recent political developments have given little breathing room.

While Democrats struggle to pass two large spending bills, Biden has faced criticism over his handling of migrants crossing the US-Mexican border. The most visible incident in recent days was the encampment of primarily Haitian migrants under the international bridge in Del Rio, Texas. The camp has since been cleared out, with the migrants either returned to Haiti or allowed to enter the US.

The president’s vaccination mandates have also occupied much of the administration’s attention, with businesses expressing frustration with the lack of opportunity for input regarding the new rules. Biden announced earlier this month that all federal employees and contractors will have to receive COVID-19 vaccinations or face termination, as would all employees of companies employing more than 100 people.

 

US Leaves Afghanistan after Evacuation Marred by Tragedy

The last American plane departed from Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport Monday, one day before President Joe Biden’s self-imposed deadline to end American military presence in the country. The departure caps the chaotic end to America’s longest war that saw its foe recapture power after over 20 years of conflict.

The flashpoint of the evacuation was the suicide bombing that killed 13 US servicemembers as well as dozens of Afghan civilians. US officials have blamed the attack on members of the ISIS-Khorasan Province group, more commonly referred to as ISIS-K.

The evacuation was necessitated by the lightning fast takeover by the Taliban following the withdrawal of US forces from the country. Most of Afghanistan’s large cities fell within weeks of each other, with Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, the last holdout among large population centers. When the Taliban captured Kabul on August 15, thousands of foreign citizens remaining in the city, prompting the US to take control over Hamid Karzai airport to facilitate evacuations.

While thousands of civilians were evacuated, the ability to do so without further conflict relied on cooperation from the Taliban, which the US and other allied forced had been fighting for nearly 20 years. The US has not committed to recognizing the Taliban-led government.

President Biden has seen a sharp decrease in his approval ratings following the chaotic withdrawal from the country, with his disapproval rating now topping his approval rating, according to 538. Biden has tried to shift the focus to the end of the war itself, rather than the handling of the evacuation, as polls have shown a  majority of Americans approve of withdrawing from Afghanistan.

 

Infrastructure Bill Likely to Pass Senate

 A bipartisan infrastructure package is poised to be passed by the Senate next week. The $550 billion plan, far below what President Joe Biden initially pushed for, is still a work-in-progress, with the final text not yet complete. It aims to provide billions in funding for physical infrastructure, as well as gather revenue from higher customs fees and stricter cryptocurrency transaction reporting requirements.

Some progressives are unsatisfied with the plan, favoring higher spending on a broader array of projects. Another massive $3.5 trillion spending package, covering issues ranging from climate change, immigration, taxes, and social spending, remains a priority for most Democrats, though some moderates, like Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), have criticized that plan's high price tag.

 

Rising Prices Raise Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve reported that the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE), which measures the prices of consumer goods minus food and energy, rose at a 3.1% annualized rate in April, an increase from 1.9% in March. This was higher than the expected 2.9% increase.

If one were to include food and energy prices, inflation rose to 3.6% in April, up from 2.4% in Match.

The Federal Reserve has tried to allay fears of rising inflation, blaming it on supply-chain bottlenecks and the large fiscal stimulus, which they believe are temporary factors. In addition, the inflation is starting from a relatively low base line, as price increases were low during the coronavirus lockdown and related economic downturn.

The Biden administration, which has proposed trillions in additional spending, has signaled they believe that they can continue the large amounts of fiscal stimulus without drastically raising inflation. Republicans have countered that the additional money pumped into the economy could lead to even higher prices.

The US is not alone in facing inflation risk. Germany reported a 2.4% inflation rate for May. Spain also experienced the same inflation rate for May.

Markets overall have responded negatively to the news of increased inflation. While US markets have stabilized in the past few days, increased volatility in equity markets worldwide have continued. Cryptocurrency markets have also seen sharp declines from their previous highs, though other factors besides inflation worries are likely at play.

 

After Coronavirus Stimulus Bill, Democrats Eye Larger Plans

The American Rescue Plan, President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill, passed Congress on a party line vote this month, delivering $1,400 checks to most Americans, extending unemployment benefits, and allocating billions for various spending plans. While the plan only passed narrowly, many Democrats in Congress hope their small majorities in Congress will be enough to pass more ambitious plans, including a $3 trillion infrastructure plan, direct tax hikes on upper-income Americans, and gun control bills.

Democrats hope to pay for many of their plans through direct tax increases on those making $400,000 or more per year, as well as through increased enforcement of tax laws though increased audits.

On gun control, a longtime Democratic priority, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) claims that the Senate can pass a bipartisan bill to expand background checks, something echoed by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA). However, such a bill may be seen as too weak by more liberal Democrats, and will almost certainly draw strong opposition from most Republicans, casting doubt on Murphy’s and Toomey’s claims.

Some Democrats are calling for the elimination of the filibuster, the parliamentary rule which prohibits the Senate from advancing most legislation without 60 votes. President Biden has not called for the complete elimination of the filibuster, but has signaled openness to “reform,” remaining unclear on what changes to it he would support. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), considered the swing vote in the Senate, has said he would not support elimination the filibuster, but, like Biden, has signaled that he could be open to certain changes that would allow legislation to pass more easily.

 

Biden Launches Strikes at Iranian-Backed Militias in Syria

President Biden launched missile strikes against what the US describes as Iran-backed militias operating in Syria on Thursday. These strikes were in retaliation for an attack on US troops stationed in Erbil, Iraq earlier this month which resulted in the death of a civilian contractor. While the initial attack occurred in Iraq, the retaliatory strikes were aimed at militias in Syria to avoid a diplomatic spat with the Iraqi government, which has strong ties to Iran.

The Biden administration has said they hope to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran as they hope to renew talks to enter a nuclear deal. President Trump had exited the previous nuclear deal during his term, and Biden has promised to attempt to reenter the agreement during his term.

Trump had also directly confronted Iran through the killing of General Qassim Soleimani in January 2020 over the general’s repeated attacks on US troops over the years. Iran did launch retaliatory strikes in response which caused injuries to US servicemembers in the region; however, there was no escalation to a full-blown conflict that some had feared may have resulted from Soleimani’s killing.

 

Trump Makes First Public Appearance Since Leaving Office at CPAC

Former President Donald Trump appeared publicly for the first time since leaving office in January, giving a speech at CPAC in Orlando, Florida. During the speech he said he will not establish a new political party, rather focusing on influencing the Republican Party. He also broke with recent tradition, directly criticizing President Joe Biden’s presidency, saying, “Joe Biden has had the most disastrous first month of any president in modern history.”

Trump won the presidential straw poll with 55%, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis  coming in second, winning 21%. While DeSantis had a home field advantage, with CPAC being held in Florida rather than its usual location in National Harbor, Maryland, it could signal that DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, could become a strong opponent to Trump should both run in 2024.

 

House Passes Stimulus Bill, Faces Uncertainty over Minimum Wage

The House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Saturday. The bill includes measures related to increased funding for COVID testing, school funding, stimulus checks, and assistance for  rent and food. In addition, it extends unemployment benefits and provides money to states to fund their liabilities.

The bill also contains language to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next several years. However, this clause will have to be removed if the Senate wishes to pass the bill under reconciliation, which would allow the bill to become law with only 51 votes, rather than the 60 votes needed to end debate and pass the bill. The Senate parliamentarian ruled this past week that the minimum wage increase could not be included in a reconciliation bill because it did not directly affect government revenues and expenses. Proponents of the minimum wage increase, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), argued that the minimum wage increase would increase government revenue through more taxes because of the increased wages paid and is thus eligible.

Republicans in the Senate have signaled opposition to the minimum wage increase, saying it will increase unemployment as employers would lay of workers for whom they could no longer afford their wages. Some moderate Democratic senators have also signaled opposition, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has said that the $15 minimum is too high for his state’s employers to pay for many of their workers.

President Biden has seemed to concede that the minimum wage clause will not be included in the reconciliation bill, promising to take it up as a stand alone bill in the future.

 

Biden Works to Advance His Agenda in His First Days

President Biden has begun pushing his agenda in his first days as president, issuing numerous executive orders and laying out his administration’s plan for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

Biden has already issued more than three dozen executive orders that cover issues including abortion, immigration and border security, economic regulations, COVID-19, criminal justice, and climate change. The pace of Biden’s executive orders is largely unprecedented this early in one’s presidency, with presidents previously spreading their first executive orders, especially over more controversial matters, over several months.

While Republicans have predictably criticized Biden’s orders, many of which reverse or rollback former President Trump’s own executive orders, some Democrats have also said that the administration should focus on legislative action to increase the scope of change as well as make such changes more permanent. Executive orders can easily be reversed by future administrations and cannot change or add to existing legislation.

Pushing through his agenda in Congress in the coming weeks could prove difficult for the president. He faces an evenly split Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris would cast a tie-breaking vote and a House of Representatives with a slim Democratic majority. In addition, the next few weeks are likely to be consumed with the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump, who was impeached just before his term ended over his alleged role in encouraging rioters who broke into and occupied the Capitol building on January 6. Regular Senate business is likely to be postponed or curtailed during trial proceedings.

 

Joe Biden Sworn in as 46th President

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. has been sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. He takes office as the oldest president in American history after he defeated incumbent Republican Donald Trump, who conceded defeat this month.

His running mate, Kamala Harris, has become the first woman to become Vice President, as well as the first black and Asian-American to take that office. She is the second Vice President to have significant non-white ancestry, after Charles Curtis, Calvin Coolidge's vice president.

Biden emphasized unity in his inaugural speech, citing a need for a more constructive, less divisive political climate to address the challenges the country faces.

Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

Interesting Data Points from This Month's Election

While President Trump continues to challenge the legitimacy of the this month's election and President-elect Biden begins the transition effort, the election has provided some interesting data points that election data wonks and otherwise political junkies can pore over for months to come.

Death of the Bellwethers 

Several counties across the US have been excellent bellwethers in recent elections, voting for the ultimate winner of the election (in the electoral college, not necessarily in the popular vote). The most accurate one was Vigo County, Indiana, home of Terra Haute, which has voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1956 on.

 Until 2020. 

And it wasn't alone. In fact, most notable bellwether counties failed to predict Joe Biden's win. Hidalgo County, NM has predicted all elections successfully since 1972, but voted for Trump this year. Other counties that failed included Essex County, VT, Westmoreland County, VA, Coos County, NH, and Darlington County, SC, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Successful bellwether counties included Blaine County, MT, Kent County, DE, and Clallam County, WA, all which voted for Biden this year after voting for Trump in 2016. 

So why the shift? These counties tend to be low-population with a rural character, areas in which Trump has performed well and have been shifting towards Republicans for years. In the case of Kent County, Delaware, while it is the least populous county in the state, it contains the state capital of Dover and is in Biden's home state. Vigo County, Indiana, meanwhile seems to be swinging towards Republicans. It was not particularly close in either 2016 or 2020, and voted for a Republican governor for the first time in decades.

In conclusion, the failure of the bellwethers the cycle may be a one-off, or a signal of a long term political shift.

Longtime Republican Counties Turning Blue

Orange County, CA made news in 2016 after voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, making the former secretary of state the first Democrat to win the county since 1936. Orange County for years was synonymous with Southern Californian conservatism and was the bedrock of Republican support in the Golden State. 

The affluent suburban shift to Democrats over the past few cycles accelerated under Trump, with Orange County perhaps the most visible example. Orange County shifted even more Democratic in 2020 in the presidential race, though two Orange County House seats flipped back to the Republicans after being taken by Democrats in 2018 (these two seats were handily won by incumbent Republicans in 2016). 

Other traditionally Republican counties shifted Blue for the first time in decades. Duval County, FL, which is essentially conterminous with Jacksonville, voted Republican for the first time since 1976. Duval went for Trump in 2016, but voted for Democratic candidates for the Senate and the governorship in 2018. Likewise for Seminole County, FL a suburban county outside Orlando, which voted Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1948.

Even more dramatic was Riley County, KS, home of Manhattan and Kansas State University. The county voted Democratic for the first time ever. While Riley County has voted Democratic (sometimes by large margins) in state races, its strong Union sympathies set the stage to keep the county Republican for a century and a half. 

Tarrant County, TX, home of Fort Worth, voted Democratic (albeit by less than 1%) for the first time since 1956. Maricopa County, AZ, home of Phoenix, went blue for the first time since 1948. These were the last counties with over 1 million people to have voted Republican in 2016. 

Oklahoma County, OK, home of Oklahoma City, remained Republican by only 1.1 percentage points. In 2016 the county voted Republican by 10.5%, though third parties won 7.1% that cycle. This time around it was only 2.7%. 

In all these counties, the blue trend mostly comes from the shift in college-educated voters voting more Democratic, while Republicans have found a new base among voters without college degrees.

Republican Surprise in Hispanic-Majority Areas of Texas

South Texas, with strong Hispanic majorities in most counties, has been an ancestrally Democratic region, rarely supporting Republicans since statehood. While Biden held on to the most populous counties of Hidalgo (home of McAllen and Edinburg) and Cameron (Brownsville and Harlingen), its margins in both counties were diminished from 2016, moving against the predominant Democratic shift (to a varying degree) across most counties in the US from 2016. E

Even more dramatic were the results in less populous but even more Hispanic counties such as Zapata and Starr. Zapata voted Republican for the first time in 2016, with Trump besting Biden by 5.5 points. Starr remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by 5.1 points, though Clinton beat Trump by 60.2 pints in 2016, a 55.1 swing to the Republicans, the largest in the nation.

Traditionally Democratic-leaning counties of Val Verde (in West Texas, home of Del Rio), Jim Wells (home of Alice), Reeves (also in West Texas), LaSalle, and Frio all flipped GOP this cycle. Other Democratic counties like Maverick (home of Eagle Pass) and Webb (Laredo) remained Democratic with reduced margins. 

Trump's performance likely helped Tony Gonzalez keep Will Hurd's seat for the GOP in Texas's 23rd Congressional District and likely nearly flipped Texas's 15th (based in McAllen), which no national observers had rated competitive.

A similar circumstance occurred in 2004 with George Bush's landslide victory in the state, even narrowly carrying Cameron, which Trump failed to do this time around. Bush's strong showing in this part of the state likely derives from the favorite son effect and his strong showing among Hispanics. Trump also performed relatively strongly with Hispanics in 2020, and it remains to be seen whether these results indicate a long-term shift to the GOP or was a one-off event. 

Trump's Improvement Among Hispanics Nationally

Exit polls have Trump winning around 32-36% of the Hispanic vote, better than the approximately 29% he received in 2016. 

In Miami-Dade County, FL, home to Miami, Trump dramatically improved his performance among Hispanics from 2016, especially among Cuban-Americans. While he did not win this large county of 2.7 million, his losing margin was only approximately 7 points, versus the 29 point margin by which he lost in 2016. A similar but much smaller improvement for Trump was seen in Osceola County, FL, outside Orlando, which has a large Puerto Rican population, a demographic that tends to vote more Democratic than other Hispanic groups.

In relatively small Imperial County, CA, home of Brawley and El Centro, Biden managed to keep the county Democratic, though Trump managed to cut off about 15 points off the margin of victory for the Democrats from 2016. Imperial is approximately 80% Hispanic.

The Black Vote

The black vote experienced less dramatic movement than the Hispanic vote, though both sides made vocal appeals to the black Americans ahead of the election. As an example, DeKalb County, GA, which is heavily African-American and part of the Atlanta metro area, moved approximately 4 points to the Democrats compared to 2016. 

National exit polling had Trump doing around the same with black voters as 2016, with some showing black support for Trump slightly up. Edison's 2016 exit polling had Clinton beating Trump 88 to 8 among black voters, with 4 percent for third parties, and CNN's 2020 exit poll had Biden beating Trump 87 to 12. If these numbers are true, the overall percentage point movement is small, though for the Republicans would represent a 33.33% increase in their percentage increase of black voters.

Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point.