Democratic leaders in Congress must thread the needle between the ideologic ends of their party as they attempt to pass two massive spending bills, one geared towards upgrading and adding to the nation’s physical infrastructure and one aiming to increase the social safety net and expand other social programs. The cost of the first is estimated to be around $1.2 trillion; the second around $3.5 trillion. President Joe Biden has made both plans centerpieces for his agenda.
The $3.5 trillion plan can be passed under Senate reconciliation rules, in which a simple majority is needed to pass the plan. This would allow it to pass without any Republican votes. However, it faces an uncertain future in the House if moderate House Democrats oppose it. Their opposition, in turn, could lead progressives to oppose the infrastructure bill. Not passing either bill would hand President Biden a major political defeat in his first year in office.
Progressive Democrats have vowed to vote against the infrastructure plan, which enjoys some bipartisan support, if the social spending plan is not passed to their liking. Meanwhile some moderates in the Senate have balked at the large price tag of the $3.5 trillion plan, which Democrat leaders claim is fully paid for by tax increases primarily on wealthy households and from increased IRS audits. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kirsten Sinema (D-AZ) have both said that they will not support $3.5 trillion in new spending.
Adding to these challenges is the need to raise the federal debt ceiling to prevent default on the government’s financial obligations. The House and Senate did reach an agreement to avoid a government shutdown, which Biden signed into law on Thursday.
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