Assad Regime Faces Collapse as Rebels Take Damascus

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime faces rapid collapse as opposition forces have reportedly taken control of the country's capital Damascus. Assad's whereabouts are unknown, though a plane that was purportedly carrying the president appears to have crashed near the city of Homs. 

This latest offensive started late November following the ceasefire that had largely held since 2020. The swift fall of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, on November 29, 2024, caught many by surprise, especially with Assad's forces putting up little resistance. The main opposition force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and its allied factions capitalized on a weakened Syrian military. Rebel forces swiftly moved south, capturing Hama by December 5. By the 7th, they had entered Homs, effectively cutting off the regime's control over the crucial M5 highway that connects Damascus to the north.

Simultaneously, in the south, opposition groups, including those in the newly formed Southern Operations Room and Al-Jabal Brigade, took control of Daraa and Suwayda, further isolating Damascus. The speed of these offensives suggests a significant breakdown in Assad's military structure due to a combination of factors including low morale, economic collapse, and lack of support from key allies like Russia and Iran, who have been distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and Lebanon respectively.

Regime forces remain in control for now of the country's west coast, including Assad's stronghold of Latakia. This area hosts two Russian military bases, with reports that Russia has begun evacuations. 

How Did Assad's Regime Fall?

Since the Idlib ceasefire in March 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Assad's regime, has faced increasing economic challenges, with the Syrian pound losing value dramatically against the US dollar, exacerbating the already dire living conditions for millions of Syrians trying to recover from years of fierce fighting.

Despite occasional flare-ups, the frontlines were largely static until mid-2024. The Assad regime relied heavily on its allies Russian Iran, but both now face competing priorities: Russia with its ongoing war in Ukraine and Iran with its proxy conflicts, especially with Israel, which targeted Hezbollah, a key ally of Assad in Syria.

The widespread poverty and dissatisfaction with the Assad regime set the backdrop for the sudden rebel offensive in late November 2024, which exploited the weakened state of the regime's forces, leading to the capture of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and parts of the south in a matter of days.

This article was written with AI assistance.

 

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Syrian Rebels Enter Aleppo in First Major Offensive in Years

Syrian rebel forces captured parts of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, in the first major offensive since 2020. Pro-government forces reportedly put up little substantive opposition as rebel forces advanced towards Aleppo.

Neither side has sought to make large scale advances since the 2020 ceasefire agreement. The Syrian government’s major allies, Iran (through their proxy Hezbollah) and Russia, have since been bogged down by their own conflicts in Lebanon and Ukraine respectively, creating an opening for rebel forces to begin a large scale offensive.

 

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