General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.

Trump Approval Up, Biden Campaign Sidelined

President Trump’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since the start of his presidency. While it is still underwater, his favorable-unfavorable margin has shrunk to around –4, according to an aggregation by FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has largely remained on the sidelines since his string of primary victories earlier this month, effectively knocking out his sole challenger for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He had promised he would give regular updates and campaign speeches through videos produced at his home, though his shaky performance in these and in media interviews has discouraged further campaign media productions for now.

Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, with some saying the president’s response to the threat was delayed. Trump counters that the US response has been aggressive and that widespread testing has helped reduce the spread.

Trump’s approval for handling the coronavirus is positive, though lower than that of state and government responses.

Sanders Leads Nationally as Biden Triumphs in South Carolina

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has captured frontrunner status in the Democratic race, though it may not be enough to win enough delegates before the convention in Milwaukee in a few months.

That may be even more likely after today’s vote, as former Vice President Joe Biden scored a strong victory in the South Carolina primary Saturday. Long touted as his firewall, Biden seemed to be danger just last week of losing the primary to a surging Sanders. Biden, with around 90% of the precincts in, has just under 50% of the vote, with second-place Sanders just under 20%.

Even with Biden’s South Carolina victory and the possibility of momentum heading into Super Tuesday this week, Sanders holds a healthy lead on national polling, which was Biden’s claim just last month. According to the RealClearPolitics poll aggregator, Sanders leads Biden 29.6% to 18.8%, with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg coming in third with 16.4%. Bloomberg, who will only be on state ballots starting on Super Tuesday, surged in polling this past month as he spent hundreds of millions of dollars on television and online advertisements. His momentum has slowed, however, amid a poor first debate performance and a somewhat resurgent Biden, whose disastrous Iowa and New Hampshire results had some wondering if he would leave the race.

While Sanders maintains the lead in national polling and in certain Super Tuesday states, there is a strong chance neither he or any other candidate will reach a majority of delegates on the first ballot. If that happens, delegates can choose who to be their nominee at the convention, possibly setting up a protracted and heated battle to face Trump in November.

Elizabeth Warren Drops in polls, Pete Buttigieg Rises

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) standing in the polls has fallen this month with the senator now trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire. In her place, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has taken her place as the rising star of the Democratic race, polling first place in both states and remaining in fourth place nationally, behind Biden, Sanders, and Warren. They are the only candidates polling in the double digits; Sen. Kamala Harris, the fifth highest polling candidate, is at 3.8% (D-CA) in national polls.

House Launches Impeachment Inquiry

fter months of resistance to pleas from vocal members of her caucus, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced last week that she would open an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s conduct. While many Democrats have called for impeachment proceedings in the past (soon after his inauguration), the event that sparked the latest round of calls relates to Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his plea for him to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden’s business and political actions in the country, a request that is politically salient given Joe Biden’s candidacy for president, in which he hopes to face Trump in November 2020.

The story broke earlier this month when a whistleblower released information about the contents of Trump’s call, which led to sharp criticism, mostly form Democrats but with a few Republicans joining in condemning the president’s action. After Pelosi initiated the impeachment inquiry on September 24th, the White House released a transcript of the call (which was not a verbatim copy, but rather a series of notes and recollections from other listeners) with Zelensky, which confirmed Trump cited Biden as an example of corruption in Ukraine.

In addition, Trump withheld $400 million in military aid to Ukraine prior to the call. Democrats have said the aide was withheld to be used as a bargaining chip to force Zelensky’s hand to investigate Biden; the White House says interagency disagreements led to its delay in disbursement.

Going forward, House Democrats will hold hearings on Trump over his conduct, with many Democrats hoping that it will lead to an impeachment vote. If successful, the Senate will decide whether to remove the president.

Democratic Field Narrows, Republican’s Grows by One

The 2020 Presidential field continues to change as several Democrats drop out of the race, while one Republican joins in an attempt to deny President Donald Trump the GOP nomination.

This month, four major candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race: former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton, and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. None of the candidates managed to gain major support during any of the campaign, with Moulton never making the debate stage and Gillibrand (the highest-polling one of the group) only scoring 3% in one poll and usually averaging only 1%.

This still leaves well over a dozen candidates in the mix, though only three, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warrant, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, poll in the double digits. The rest, including relatively high polling candidates California Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are in the single digits.

However, recent polls have indicated that any of those candidates has a polling advantage over Trump in the general, though the election is still over a year away, and the political environment can easily shift more in favor (or even less in favor) of Trump’s reelection prospects.

Meanwhile, former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois announced a longshot bid to challenge Trump for the GOP primary this week. Walsh, once a strong Trump supporter and a conservative firebrand, has come under fire for controversial and racially tinged statements made in his past.

Democrats Debate Again, 10 Yesterday and 10 Today

The race for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 continues after ten Democratic candidates met in Detroit last night for the second primary debate, with ten more to go tonight.

Last night’s debate featured the two highest-polling progressive candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Other relatively high-polling candidates (though still in the single digits) were South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

The debate demonstrated sharp differences between the progressive wing, led by Sanders and Warren, and the relatively more moderate wing, including Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Some of these differences included whether to abolish private health insurance in favor of government-run insurance, providing free health care to those residing in the US illegally, and decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Places of agreement between both camps included providing a government-run insurance program (regardless of whether private insurance would still be allowed), instituting more gun control, and placing higher taxes on wealthy Americans.

Ten more candidates will debate tonight, including two other high-polling candidates, the frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden is considered relatively more moderate than many of the other candidates (though still liberal by national standards), and will likely face progressive criticisms from Harris and other candidates.

Democrats Open Up Primary Season with First Debate

NBC hosted the first Democratic debate on June 26 and June 27, with twenty of the twenty-four declared major candidates participating. Ten candidates debated each day, and though NBC said the order was randomly allocated, four of the five top-polling candidates went on the second day, including frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden.

The first debate, in which Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (currently second place in polls) participated, mostly focused on the candidates introducing themselves to the American people and what their main interests are. For example, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan focused on winning back working class voters while Washington Gov. Jay Inslee focused on climate change, which he has made a central issue to his campaign. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke was the subject of repeated attacks, most notably from Texas Rep. Julian Castro, who criticized his immigration plan, most notably in that it would not change unauthorized border crossings from a criminal to a civil offense (similar to parking tickets).

The second debate featured even sharper criticisms against each other, with Biden the most frequent target. California Rep. Eric Swalwell criticized Biden’s longevity in politics and argued its was time for someone new to be the party’s standard bearer. California Senator Kamala Harris criticized Biden’s earlier statements that spoke favorably of former segregationist politicians (though not their positions; his comments were on their “civility”) and his opposition to mandatory busing, a program aimed at integrating schools. Biden refused to apologize for his position on busing and also did not walk back his earlier comments on working with the segregationist senators.

Biden Enters Democratic Presidential Race on Top

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced last Thursday his entry into the crowded field for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Biden currently faces at least 20 other major candidates, as well as some others who may join the race, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Biden currently tops the field in polling, leading second place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders by 13.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. No other candidates currently break double digits, though some, like South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have seen the poll numbers rise over the past month, with Buttigieg starting near zero when he announced to now around 8.4%. Some, such as Texas Sen. Beto O’Rourke, have seen declines, with O’Rourke now polling around 5.6%, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

With the nearest electoral contest not until the start of 2020, polls are bound to change. However, the large polling lead that Biden currently has likely indicates a strong early advantage over other contestants, and is higher than Jeb Bush’s polling lead in the early Republican primary polls in 2016 (Bush eventually only won less than 1% of the vote after withdrawing in February 2016).

Sanders’s high poll numbers may also be an indication of winning potential, as he has kept a large share of his support from 2016, even with other candidates this cycle echoing his policies. If he manages to maintain this support and add to it when other progressive challengers inevitably drop out, his path to the nomination may become clearer.