Democrats in Congress Struggle to Pass Biden’s Agenda

Democrats have continued to struggle in passing President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda through Congress. Two bills, one focusing on physical infrastructure and one on social spending and climate change, are in limbo as more moderate Democrats and the party’s progressive wing battle to include (or remove) parts of the social spending bill, now titled the ‘Build Back Better Act.’

Moderates have criticized the large size of the social spending bill and have succeeded in removing multiple provisions from it, such as free community college, paid family leave, longer extensions of the child tax credit, and green electricity plans. Progressives have criticized these cuts and prevented passage of the infrastructure bill to ensure leverage over the social spending bill.

 

Democrats Struggle to Pass Biden’s Agenda

Democratic leaders in Congress must thread the needle between the ideologic ends of their party as they attempt to pass two massive spending bills, one geared towards upgrading and adding to the nation’s physical infrastructure and one aiming to increase the social safety net and expand other social programs. The cost of the first is estimated to be around $1.2 trillion; the second around $3.5 trillion. President Joe Biden has made both plans centerpieces for his agenda.

The $3.5 trillion plan can be passed under Senate reconciliation rules, in which a simple majority is needed to pass the plan. This would allow it to pass without any Republican votes. However, it faces an uncertain future in the House if moderate House Democrats oppose it. Their opposition, in turn, could lead progressives to oppose the infrastructure bill. Not passing either bill would hand President Biden a major political defeat in his first year in office.

Progressive Democrats have vowed to vote against the infrastructure plan, which enjoys some bipartisan support, if the social spending plan is not passed to their liking. Meanwhile some moderates in the Senate have balked at the large price tag of the $3.5 trillion plan, which Democrat leaders claim is fully paid for by tax increases primarily on wealthy households and from increased IRS audits. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kirsten Sinema (D-AZ) have both said that they will not support $3.5 trillion in new spending.

Adding to these challenges is the need to raise the federal debt ceiling to prevent default on the government’s financial obligations. The House and Senate did reach an agreement to avoid a government shutdown, which Biden signed into law on Thursday.

 

Biden’s Approval Drops Amid Several Challenges

President Biden’s approval rating has dropped in recent weeks as the administration attempts to recover from the chaotic evacuation as American troops left Afghanistan. Recent political developments have given little breathing room.

While Democrats struggle to pass two large spending bills, Biden has faced criticism over his handling of migrants crossing the US-Mexican border. The most visible incident in recent days was the encampment of primarily Haitian migrants under the international bridge in Del Rio, Texas. The camp has since been cleared out, with the migrants either returned to Haiti or allowed to enter the US.

The president’s vaccination mandates have also occupied much of the administration’s attention, with businesses expressing frustration with the lack of opportunity for input regarding the new rules. Biden announced earlier this month that all federal employees and contractors will have to receive COVID-19 vaccinations or face termination, as would all employees of companies employing more than 100 people.

 

La Palma Volcano Eruption Destroys Buildings, Forces Evacuations in Canary Islands

Residents of the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands have been dealing with the eruption of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano, its first eruption since 1971.

While no deaths have been reported as a result of the eruption, more than 5000 residents have been evacuated as 600 buildings have so far been destroyed since the eruption started on September 19. The lava flow reached the shore on September 28.

Spain’s government, which controls the Canary Islands, has provided aid and assistance to the island.

 

Never Forget: 20 Years Later

Today marks the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. The tragic deaths of nearly 3,000 on that day, along with the thousands more who have died from diseases causes by inhaling the dust from the collapsed towers, have remained an indelible part of America's collective memory two decades later.

While we can never forget the sadness of that day, the response reminded all of the resilience and resolve of the American people. We will never forget the heroism and bravery shown on that day along with the service and sacrifice shown by American and allied troops in the years following.

Never Forget: 9/11/2001 - 9/11/2021

US Leaves Afghanistan after Evacuation Marred by Tragedy

The last American plane departed from Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport Monday, one day before President Joe Biden’s self-imposed deadline to end American military presence in the country. The departure caps the chaotic end to America’s longest war that saw its foe recapture power after over 20 years of conflict.

The flashpoint of the evacuation was the suicide bombing that killed 13 US servicemembers as well as dozens of Afghan civilians. US officials have blamed the attack on members of the ISIS-Khorasan Province group, more commonly referred to as ISIS-K.

The evacuation was necessitated by the lightning fast takeover by the Taliban following the withdrawal of US forces from the country. Most of Afghanistan’s large cities fell within weeks of each other, with Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, the last holdout among large population centers. When the Taliban captured Kabul on August 15, thousands of foreign citizens remaining in the city, prompting the US to take control over Hamid Karzai airport to facilitate evacuations.

While thousands of civilians were evacuated, the ability to do so without further conflict relied on cooperation from the Taliban, which the US and other allied forced had been fighting for nearly 20 years. The US has not committed to recognizing the Taliban-led government.

President Biden has seen a sharp decrease in his approval ratings following the chaotic withdrawal from the country, with his disapproval rating now topping his approval rating, according to 538. Biden has tried to shift the focus to the end of the war itself, rather than the handling of the evacuation, as polls have shown a  majority of Americans approve of withdrawing from Afghanistan.

 

Hurricane Ida Strikes Louisiana on Katrina Anniversary

 Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana Sunday, brining damaging flooding and winds to the region. It made landfall exactly 16 years after Hurricane Katrina struck the same region on August 29, 2005.

The storm knocked out power for many in its path, with  1 million customer still without power as of Monday night. No major flooding was reported within the New Orleans flood control system, a testament to the post-Katrina updates that aimed to prevent the catastrophic destruction the city experienced.

At least two people have been killed by the storm, one by a falling tree and one by drowning in his car in flood waters.

Ida’s 150 mile per hour winds at landfall made it one of the most powerful hurricanes to hit the US directly, though its lower storm surge than Katrina has prevented the widespread catastrophic flooding that made Katrina the most expensive natural disaster in US history.

 

Infrastructure Bill Likely to Pass Senate

 A bipartisan infrastructure package is poised to be passed by the Senate next week. The $550 billion plan, far below what President Joe Biden initially pushed for, is still a work-in-progress, with the final text not yet complete. It aims to provide billions in funding for physical infrastructure, as well as gather revenue from higher customs fees and stricter cryptocurrency transaction reporting requirements.

Some progressives are unsatisfied with the plan, favoring higher spending on a broader array of projects. Another massive $3.5 trillion spending package, covering issues ranging from climate change, immigration, taxes, and social spending, remains a priority for most Democrats, though some moderates, like Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), have criticized that plan's high price tag.

 

US, China Jockey for Top Place at Tokyo Olympics

The US and China lead the way in performance at the Tokyo Olympics, with the US currently leading in the medal count with 19 gold, 20 silver, and 13 bronze. China currently leads the pack in gold medals, winning 22 so far. It adds 13 silver and 12 bronze for a total medal count of 47.

The United States has gathered many of its medals from swimming events, which has been US-dominated in recent Olympic games. China meanwhile has flexed their strength in shooting events.

These Olympics, delayed one year because of the coronavirus pandemic, are the first time Japan has hosted the Olympics since 1964. These games are notable for the lack of attendees during events and the wearing of masks before and after events by the athletes.

 

Coronavirus Fears Grow as Government Pushes for Vaccinations

Renewed fears of coronavirus spread in the United States, primarily caused by the more contagious Delta variant, have led to renewed restrictions and mandates across the country, most notably mask and vaccine mandates. President Joe Biden has issued an order for all federal workers and on-site contractors to be vaccinated or be mandated to wear masks and submit to frequent testing.

Private companies, such as Delta Airlines and Disney, have also mandated vaccines for their employees. The available vaccines in the US, (the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna and the more traditional viral vector Johnson and Johnson vaccine) are still under emergency use authorization, leading to hesitancy from many to take the vaccine as well as from many employers to mandate the vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has said they are working to fast-track approval of the Pfizer vaccine.

The Delta variant has been responsible for most of the recent infections in the past several weeks, with some scientists claiming the variant is as contagious as the chickenpox. The contagiousness of the variant has led to calls for both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to wear masks in an attempt to contain the virus’s spread. 

 

Section of Condominium Tower Collapses in Florida

A wing of the condominium building Champlain Towers South in Surfside, Florida, a community in Miami-Dade County, collapsed on June 24 in the early morning hours. As of June 30, the collapse has caused 18 confirmed deaths, with 145 people remaining unaccounted for.

 Investigations have already begun into the cause of the partial building collapse. Building residents had long complained of building defects and had planned to spend millions in repairs for the building. Inadequate waterproofing of the swimming pool may have allowed water. including saltwater (which causes more advanced deterioration), to seep into the concrete. The building was also believed to have been sinking for years prior to the partial collapse.

Emergency crews immediately began working to clear the rubble as they searched for survivors. So far, only one person has been rescued from the collapsed portion of the building. Another 18 were rescued from other sections of the building.

In response, Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava has ordered an audit of all building older than 40 years and with more than five stories. Others, including the editorial board of the Miami Herald and Miami-Dade County State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle, have called for a grand jury investigation into the cause of the collapse.

Microsoft Announces Windows 11

Microsoft announced Windows 11, the latest version of their long-running operating system line, on June 24. The announcement comes nearly six years since the release of the current Windows version, Windows 10.

Microsoft is planning to implement a simpler design interface compared with that of previous Windows versions, as well as chat integration in the taskbar. This version of Windows will also be the first to allow Android apps to run on the system without having to download third-party software.

 

Bill Cosby Freed from Prison After Conviction Overturned

Actor and comedian Bill Cosby, convicted in 2018 of sexual assault, was set free from prison Wednesday after serving nearly three years of a three to ten year sentence. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court overturned his conviction, citing violations of Cosby’s due process rights under the 5th and 14th Amendments.

In 2005, Montgomery County District Attorney Bruce Castor, also known for his defense of President Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial, promised Cosby that he would not be criminally prosecuted if he provided testimony under the penalty of perjury in a civil case that alleged sexual assault by him. In his testimony, Cosby admitted to providing Quaaludes to women, and this admission was a basis for his criminal conviction in 2018. The Supreme Court ruled that the prosecution broke Castor’s previous agreement when prosecutors later sought criminal charges against Cosby. The court also barred any further criminal charges from being brought against Cosby in this case.

After his release, Cosby returned to his home in Elkins Park, Pennsylvania

China to Allow Couples to Have Three Children

The Chinese government will now allow married couples to have up to three children as the country aims to stem off demographic imbalance and population decline.

In the announcement, the government also vowed to provide educational and child rearing assistance, both commonly seen as barriers for couples who desire more children. 

Since 2015, China has allowed all couples to have up to two children as the population has continued to age. In addition, there are concerns over the gender imbalance, as the traditional bias for male offspring has led to more males being born than females.

 

Belarus Diverts Flight to Arrest Dissident on Board

 A Ryanair flight from Athens, Greece to Vilnius, Lithuania was diverted on May 23 after a Belarussian fighter jet intercepted the plane. Using the pretense of a bomb threat, the plane landed in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and journalist Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend were arrested. Protasevich is a known critic of Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus who has led the country since independence from the Soviet Union.

The other passengers of the flight were eventually allowed to depart on the plane, which reached Vilnius  over eight hours behind schedule.

The European Union has banned flights from flying through Belarussian airspace in response to the incident, which has been widely called a violation of international law.

Belarus, sometimes called the last dictatorship in Europe, is known for its restrictive laws and its strongman rule by Lukashenko. Lukashenko faced massive protests calling for his resignation after the presidential election in 2020, which was clouded by allegations of widespread fraud.

 

Rising Prices Raise Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve reported that the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE), which measures the prices of consumer goods minus food and energy, rose at a 3.1% annualized rate in April, an increase from 1.9% in March. This was higher than the expected 2.9% increase.

If one were to include food and energy prices, inflation rose to 3.6% in April, up from 2.4% in Match.

The Federal Reserve has tried to allay fears of rising inflation, blaming it on supply-chain bottlenecks and the large fiscal stimulus, which they believe are temporary factors. In addition, the inflation is starting from a relatively low base line, as price increases were low during the coronavirus lockdown and related economic downturn.

The Biden administration, which has proposed trillions in additional spending, has signaled they believe that they can continue the large amounts of fiscal stimulus without drastically raising inflation. Republicans have countered that the additional money pumped into the economy could lead to even higher prices.

The US is not alone in facing inflation risk. Germany reported a 2.4% inflation rate for May. Spain also experienced the same inflation rate for May.

Markets overall have responded negatively to the news of increased inflation. While US markets have stabilized in the past few days, increased volatility in equity markets worldwide have continued. Cryptocurrency markets have also seen sharp declines from their previous highs, though other factors besides inflation worries are likely at play.

 

Celebrating 60 Years of Human Spaceflight

 

April 12, 1961 - April 12, 2021

60 Years of Humans in Space

Yuri Gagarin, first person in space, (1934-1968)

Read more: Celebrating Sixty Years of Humans in Space - Scientific American

Biden’s Proposed Corporate Tax Rate Increase Meets Resistance

President Biden has already been lucky with the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling stating that the president’s tax and infrastructure plans can pass the Senate with a simple majority, rather than the 60 usually required to end debate, but he may need more luck to keep his own party united. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has already signaled his hesitance to increase the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, instead favoring an increase to 25%. The high price tag of his plan, currently over $2 trillion, could also dissuade Manchin and fellow moderate Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) from backing his plan.

 

Vaccine Rollout Continues as COVID Spread Slows in US

One third of all American adults have now received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, and nearly 20% have already received two doses of the vaccine. and new infections have dropped dramatically from their high in January of this year. The vaccines have proven successful not only in reducing severe infection, but also in reducing transmissions. The success of the vaccines has led to an increased push to reopen more of the economy and remove limitations on gatherings and event attendance.

Others have criticized such reopening efforts, arguing that the success of the vaccination efforts could be undermined by removing restrictions too soon. While cases have dropped drastically from the high case numbers early this year, the number of new cases has plateaued and even increased in certain parts of the country. Michigan is one state that has been hit especially hard, and one of its cities, Jackson, has had a higher raw daily new case number than New York City. For comparison, Jackson has around 33,000 people, while New York has over 8 million people.

 

Prince Philip, Royal Consort to Queen Elizabeth, Dies at 99

Prince Philip, who was married to Queen Elizabeth since 1947 and was royal consort since his wife ascended to the throne in 1952, died Friday morning at the age of 99, two months shy of his 100th birthday. He was the longest-serving royal consort in British history as well as the longest-lived male member of the British royal family. 

Philip was born on June 10, 1921 on the island of Corfu in Greece, and was part of the Greek royal family, itself descended from the Daish, German, and British royal families. His family fled Greece when he was young, and Philip spent his childhood in Germany, France, and Britain. 

In WWII, he joined the British navy and served in the Pacific and Mediterranean. After the war, he was granted permission to marry Elizabeth, the heir apparent to King George VI. After renouncing his foreign noble titles, he married her in 1947 and gained the title Duke of Edinburgh. After Elizabeth ascended to the throne in 1952, Philip become royal consort and gained the title Prince Philip.

Philip was known for his myriad royal engagements, appearing at 22,217 events during his time as royal consort. He also made patronage of sports, particularly carriage driving, a focus of his . He also established The Duke of Edinburgh's Award, which encouraged self-improvement for young people. 

Large Container Ship Ever Given Freed from Suez Canal

The Ever Given, one of the largest ships in the world, was freed Monday after six days stuck in the Suez Canal in Egypt. The Ever Given was on its way to the Netherlands from Malaysia, shipping thousands of tons of goods. A combination of windy conditions and human error are believed to have been the main causes of the ship lodging diagonally across the canal, preventing any ships from using the canal. Without the canal, ships would have to travel around Africa to go from Asia to Europe and vice versa.

Fourteen tug boats were needed to dislodge the ship during high tide.

Some had feared that the blockage could lead to substantial economic disruption, as $9.6 billion worth of trade passing through the canal each day.

 

After Coronavirus Stimulus Bill, Democrats Eye Larger Plans

The American Rescue Plan, President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill, passed Congress on a party line vote this month, delivering $1,400 checks to most Americans, extending unemployment benefits, and allocating billions for various spending plans. While the plan only passed narrowly, many Democrats in Congress hope their small majorities in Congress will be enough to pass more ambitious plans, including a $3 trillion infrastructure plan, direct tax hikes on upper-income Americans, and gun control bills.

Democrats hope to pay for many of their plans through direct tax increases on those making $400,000 or more per year, as well as through increased enforcement of tax laws though increased audits.

On gun control, a longtime Democratic priority, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) claims that the Senate can pass a bipartisan bill to expand background checks, something echoed by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA). However, such a bill may be seen as too weak by more liberal Democrats, and will almost certainly draw strong opposition from most Republicans, casting doubt on Murphy’s and Toomey’s claims.

Some Democrats are calling for the elimination of the filibuster, the parliamentary rule which prohibits the Senate from advancing most legislation without 60 votes. President Biden has not called for the complete elimination of the filibuster, but has signaled openness to “reform,” remaining unclear on what changes to it he would support. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), considered the swing vote in the Senate, has said he would not support elimination the filibuster, but, like Biden, has signaled that he could be open to certain changes that would allow legislation to pass more easily.

 

Children's Book Author Beverly Cleary Dies at 104

 

Cleary, who died this week at 104, pictured
here around age 39 with her cat, "Kitty"

Beloved children's book author Beverly Cleary died Thursday at the age of 104, just a few weeks shy of her 105th birthday. The centenarian's career, which spanned nearly five decades, produced numerous works with familiar characters such as Romona and Quimby Beezus, Henry Huggins, and Ralph S. Mouse. 

Cleary was born in McMinnville, Oregon, on April 12, 1916, prior to America's entry into World War I. Cleary graduated from the University of California, Berkeley in 1938 and from the University of Washington in 1939 with a second bachelor's degree in library science. She worked as a librarian for the next decade and married her husband Clarence in 1940. Clarence died in 1999. 

In 1950, Cleary's first book Henry Huggins was published. She continued publishing books until 1999, when she retired from active writing. In 1975, she won the Laura Ingalls Wilder award for her contribution to children's literature. Her characters Romona and Quimby Beezus were brought to the big screen in 2010 in Romona and Beezus, starring Selena Gomez and Joey King. Cleary was also honored with a residence hall named after her at UC Berkeley. 

After Cleary's death in Carmel-by-the-Sea, California, tributes began pouring in from fellow authors, such as Judy Blume, and from politicians, actors, and others who said they were influenced by her works. 

Biden Launches Strikes at Iranian-Backed Militias in Syria

President Biden launched missile strikes against what the US describes as Iran-backed militias operating in Syria on Thursday. These strikes were in retaliation for an attack on US troops stationed in Erbil, Iraq earlier this month which resulted in the death of a civilian contractor. While the initial attack occurred in Iraq, the retaliatory strikes were aimed at militias in Syria to avoid a diplomatic spat with the Iraqi government, which has strong ties to Iran.

The Biden administration has said they hope to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran as they hope to renew talks to enter a nuclear deal. President Trump had exited the previous nuclear deal during his term, and Biden has promised to attempt to reenter the agreement during his term.

Trump had also directly confronted Iran through the killing of General Qassim Soleimani in January 2020 over the general’s repeated attacks on US troops over the years. Iran did launch retaliatory strikes in response which caused injuries to US servicemembers in the region; however, there was no escalation to a full-blown conflict that some had feared may have resulted from Soleimani’s killing.

 

Trump Makes First Public Appearance Since Leaving Office at CPAC

Former President Donald Trump appeared publicly for the first time since leaving office in January, giving a speech at CPAC in Orlando, Florida. During the speech he said he will not establish a new political party, rather focusing on influencing the Republican Party. He also broke with recent tradition, directly criticizing President Joe Biden’s presidency, saying, “Joe Biden has had the most disastrous first month of any president in modern history.”

Trump won the presidential straw poll with 55%, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis  coming in second, winning 21%. While DeSantis had a home field advantage, with CPAC being held in Florida rather than its usual location in National Harbor, Maryland, it could signal that DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, could become a strong opponent to Trump should both run in 2024.

 

House Passes Stimulus Bill, Faces Uncertainty over Minimum Wage

The House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Saturday. The bill includes measures related to increased funding for COVID testing, school funding, stimulus checks, and assistance for  rent and food. In addition, it extends unemployment benefits and provides money to states to fund their liabilities.

The bill also contains language to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next several years. However, this clause will have to be removed if the Senate wishes to pass the bill under reconciliation, which would allow the bill to become law with only 51 votes, rather than the 60 votes needed to end debate and pass the bill. The Senate parliamentarian ruled this past week that the minimum wage increase could not be included in a reconciliation bill because it did not directly affect government revenues and expenses. Proponents of the minimum wage increase, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), argued that the minimum wage increase would increase government revenue through more taxes because of the increased wages paid and is thus eligible.

Republicans in the Senate have signaled opposition to the minimum wage increase, saying it will increase unemployment as employers would lay of workers for whom they could no longer afford their wages. Some moderate Democratic senators have also signaled opposition, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has said that the $15 minimum is too high for his state’s employers to pay for many of their workers.

President Biden has seemed to concede that the minimum wage clause will not be included in the reconciliation bill, promising to take it up as a stand alone bill in the future.

 

Retail Investors Take Wall Street for a Ride

Several Wall Street firms faced the prospect of massive losses this week as a result of their short positions in several stocks, most notably in GameStop Corporation. Individual investors, encouraged most notably by users on the Reddit forum, or subreddit, WallStreetBets, purchased shares in GameStop and other stocks facing short positions to punish those shorting the stock as well as provide a boost to those companies.

Short selling occurs when an investor borrows a stock from another investor or brokerage, usually for a fee, and sells it immediately after. The investor expects the stock to decrease in price, and the investor hopes to repurchase the stock and return it to the original holder. The profit to the investor is the sale price minus the repurchase price minus the borrowing fee. However, if the stock increases in value, the investor will have to repurchase the stock at a greater price than which he sold it, and the losses can be theoretically unlimited.

Several brokerages, including Robinhood, blocked purchases on Thursday for WallStreetBets’ favored stocks, prompting criticism from investors as well as government officials.

 

Protests Erupt in Russia over Poisoning and Arrest of Opposition Leader

Russian authorities have detained more than 5,000 people after demonstrations erupted across the country after opposition leader, Alexei Nalvany, was poisoned last year and arrested this month. Mysterious poisonings and assassinations have plagued opponents to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule in the past.

Nalvany was poisoned with a nerve agent in August 2020, falling ill on a flight. Nalvany recovered but was arrested on January 17 after returning to Russia, accused of violating terms of a suspended jail sentence.

 

Biden Works to Advance His Agenda in His First Days

President Biden has begun pushing his agenda in his first days as president, issuing numerous executive orders and laying out his administration’s plan for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

Biden has already issued more than three dozen executive orders that cover issues including abortion, immigration and border security, economic regulations, COVID-19, criminal justice, and climate change. The pace of Biden’s executive orders is largely unprecedented this early in one’s presidency, with presidents previously spreading their first executive orders, especially over more controversial matters, over several months.

While Republicans have predictably criticized Biden’s orders, many of which reverse or rollback former President Trump’s own executive orders, some Democrats have also said that the administration should focus on legislative action to increase the scope of change as well as make such changes more permanent. Executive orders can easily be reversed by future administrations and cannot change or add to existing legislation.

Pushing through his agenda in Congress in the coming weeks could prove difficult for the president. He faces an evenly split Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris would cast a tie-breaking vote and a House of Representatives with a slim Democratic majority. In addition, the next few weeks are likely to be consumed with the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump, who was impeached just before his term ended over his alleged role in encouraging rioters who broke into and occupied the Capitol building on January 6. Regular Senate business is likely to be postponed or curtailed during trial proceedings.

 

Joe Biden Sworn in as 46th President

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. has been sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. He takes office as the oldest president in American history after he defeated incumbent Republican Donald Trump, who conceded defeat this month.

His running mate, Kamala Harris, has become the first woman to become Vice President, as well as the first black and Asian-American to take that office. She is the second Vice President to have significant non-white ancestry, after Charles Curtis, Calvin Coolidge's vice president.

Biden emphasized unity in his inaugural speech, citing a need for a more constructive, less divisive political climate to address the challenges the country faces.

Hard Year Begets New Challenges

The year 2020, with its plethora of challenges from all aspects of life, may not be missed by many. The most notable challenge, the coronavirus pandemic, will carry on into 2021 (and perhaps beyond that). The resulting economic downturn has affected millions, with many facing reduced hours, layoffs, and/or challenges from remote work.

 The heated US election season is essentially over, but the political polarization that begat it remains a force in American life.

This year had the most active Atlantic basin hurricane season on record with several destructive storms making landfall. Western US forests burned in the latter half of the year, which followed massive fires in Australia.

What will 2021 bring? Perhaps just a small improvement from this past year will make it seem better by comparison, though many of the underlying challenges plaguing 2020 will almost certainly continue into 2021 and even into the rest of the 2020s.

 

Attack on Airport in Yemen Leaves Over Two Dozen Dead

 Explosions and gunfire rocked an airport in Aden, Yemen on Wednesday, killing at least 25 as members of a new Saudi-backed government arrived. One government officials, a deputy minister of public works, was killed.

The attack comes amid a county gripped in conflict, as the Iran-backed Houthis continue to hold a large swath of the nation as other separatist groups try to claim control. Saudi Arabia has been a major player in the conflict, opposing the Iran-backed Houthi group. The Yemen conflict is part of a broader power struggle in the Middle East between Sunni governments, including Saudi Arabia, and Shia Iran.

 

Vaccine Rollout Begins

The long-awaited coronavirus vaccines rolled out publicly this month, with three major ones approved by government regulators. This follows months of clinical trials and some doubt whether such vaccines would be ready by the year’s end. The rollouts  have not been without their challenges, however, as governments work to get the pandemic under control.

Pfizer’s vaccine was the first to be announced as clinically effective and safe, followed closely by Moderna’s vaccine, which uses new messenger RNA technology to create immunity. The challenges of these two vaccines, and from some others that will follow, include the need for two doses of the vaccine to be given days apart and the need for cold storage. Pfizer’s must be stored at temperatures hat are colder than Antarctica (around 70 Celsius), while Moderna’s must be kept at temperatures closer to a regular freezer (-20 Celsius).

Another vaccine, developed by researchers at the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, does not require the cold temperatures that Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines need and can instead be stored in a standard refrigerator. The United Kingdom has approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for use in the country, and this vaccine will likely be approved in other countries over time.

Vaccine immunizations are currently prioritized to healthcare workers and those at severe risk of complications, such as the elderly and immunosuppressed. Throughout 2021, as more vaccine doses are created and logistical issues sort themselves out, a greater share of the population, including healthy people with no pre-existing conditions, will begin receiving doses of the vaccine.

 

Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

Coronavirus Pandemic Reaches Highest Levels This Month

Coronavirus cases skyrocketed this past month in the United States, with several days of the month posting record infection numbers. While cases numbers have stopped climbing in recent days, the massive increase this month again put stress on health systems and led politicians scrambling to respond.

Many of the COVID-19 hotspots this time were in rural areas in the middle of the country. Previous hotspots in the US had mostly been in urban areas in large states.

The ongoing pandemic has continued to stress certain sectors. Restaurants and bars struggle as government mandates limit the number of customers able to be served in addition to public skepticism of the safety of eating out. Meanwhile public transportation systems faced greatly diminished ridership, diminishing their often already stressed finances.

Across the world, coronavirus case increase led to varying responses. Some nations, like the UK and Turkey, renewed curfew and lockdown measures in an effort to stem the virus.

Several companies, including Pfizer and Moderna, have announced success in their vaccine trials, bringing hope of a general vaccine sometime in 2021.

 

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

Interesting Data Points from This Month's Election

While President Trump continues to challenge the legitimacy of the this month's election and President-elect Biden begins the transition effort, the election has provided some interesting data points that election data wonks and otherwise political junkies can pore over for months to come.

Death of the Bellwethers 

Several counties across the US have been excellent bellwethers in recent elections, voting for the ultimate winner of the election (in the electoral college, not necessarily in the popular vote). The most accurate one was Vigo County, Indiana, home of Terra Haute, which has voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1956 on.

 Until 2020. 

And it wasn't alone. In fact, most notable bellwether counties failed to predict Joe Biden's win. Hidalgo County, NM has predicted all elections successfully since 1972, but voted for Trump this year. Other counties that failed included Essex County, VT, Westmoreland County, VA, Coos County, NH, and Darlington County, SC, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Successful bellwether counties included Blaine County, MT, Kent County, DE, and Clallam County, WA, all which voted for Biden this year after voting for Trump in 2016. 

So why the shift? These counties tend to be low-population with a rural character, areas in which Trump has performed well and have been shifting towards Republicans for years. In the case of Kent County, Delaware, while it is the least populous county in the state, it contains the state capital of Dover and is in Biden's home state. Vigo County, Indiana, meanwhile seems to be swinging towards Republicans. It was not particularly close in either 2016 or 2020, and voted for a Republican governor for the first time in decades.

In conclusion, the failure of the bellwethers the cycle may be a one-off, or a signal of a long term political shift.

Longtime Republican Counties Turning Blue

Orange County, CA made news in 2016 after voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, making the former secretary of state the first Democrat to win the county since 1936. Orange County for years was synonymous with Southern Californian conservatism and was the bedrock of Republican support in the Golden State. 

The affluent suburban shift to Democrats over the past few cycles accelerated under Trump, with Orange County perhaps the most visible example. Orange County shifted even more Democratic in 2020 in the presidential race, though two Orange County House seats flipped back to the Republicans after being taken by Democrats in 2018 (these two seats were handily won by incumbent Republicans in 2016). 

Other traditionally Republican counties shifted Blue for the first time in decades. Duval County, FL, which is essentially conterminous with Jacksonville, voted Republican for the first time since 1976. Duval went for Trump in 2016, but voted for Democratic candidates for the Senate and the governorship in 2018. Likewise for Seminole County, FL a suburban county outside Orlando, which voted Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1948.

Even more dramatic was Riley County, KS, home of Manhattan and Kansas State University. The county voted Democratic for the first time ever. While Riley County has voted Democratic (sometimes by large margins) in state races, its strong Union sympathies set the stage to keep the county Republican for a century and a half. 

Tarrant County, TX, home of Fort Worth, voted Democratic (albeit by less than 1%) for the first time since 1956. Maricopa County, AZ, home of Phoenix, went blue for the first time since 1948. These were the last counties with over 1 million people to have voted Republican in 2016. 

Oklahoma County, OK, home of Oklahoma City, remained Republican by only 1.1 percentage points. In 2016 the county voted Republican by 10.5%, though third parties won 7.1% that cycle. This time around it was only 2.7%. 

In all these counties, the blue trend mostly comes from the shift in college-educated voters voting more Democratic, while Republicans have found a new base among voters without college degrees.

Republican Surprise in Hispanic-Majority Areas of Texas

South Texas, with strong Hispanic majorities in most counties, has been an ancestrally Democratic region, rarely supporting Republicans since statehood. While Biden held on to the most populous counties of Hidalgo (home of McAllen and Edinburg) and Cameron (Brownsville and Harlingen), its margins in both counties were diminished from 2016, moving against the predominant Democratic shift (to a varying degree) across most counties in the US from 2016. E

Even more dramatic were the results in less populous but even more Hispanic counties such as Zapata and Starr. Zapata voted Republican for the first time in 2016, with Trump besting Biden by 5.5 points. Starr remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by 5.1 points, though Clinton beat Trump by 60.2 pints in 2016, a 55.1 swing to the Republicans, the largest in the nation.

Traditionally Democratic-leaning counties of Val Verde (in West Texas, home of Del Rio), Jim Wells (home of Alice), Reeves (also in West Texas), LaSalle, and Frio all flipped GOP this cycle. Other Democratic counties like Maverick (home of Eagle Pass) and Webb (Laredo) remained Democratic with reduced margins. 

Trump's performance likely helped Tony Gonzalez keep Will Hurd's seat for the GOP in Texas's 23rd Congressional District and likely nearly flipped Texas's 15th (based in McAllen), which no national observers had rated competitive.

A similar circumstance occurred in 2004 with George Bush's landslide victory in the state, even narrowly carrying Cameron, which Trump failed to do this time around. Bush's strong showing in this part of the state likely derives from the favorite son effect and his strong showing among Hispanics. Trump also performed relatively strongly with Hispanics in 2020, and it remains to be seen whether these results indicate a long-term shift to the GOP or was a one-off event. 

Trump's Improvement Among Hispanics Nationally

Exit polls have Trump winning around 32-36% of the Hispanic vote, better than the approximately 29% he received in 2016. 

In Miami-Dade County, FL, home to Miami, Trump dramatically improved his performance among Hispanics from 2016, especially among Cuban-Americans. While he did not win this large county of 2.7 million, his losing margin was only approximately 7 points, versus the 29 point margin by which he lost in 2016. A similar but much smaller improvement for Trump was seen in Osceola County, FL, outside Orlando, which has a large Puerto Rican population, a demographic that tends to vote more Democratic than other Hispanic groups.

In relatively small Imperial County, CA, home of Brawley and El Centro, Biden managed to keep the county Democratic, though Trump managed to cut off about 15 points off the margin of victory for the Democrats from 2016. Imperial is approximately 80% Hispanic.

The Black Vote

The black vote experienced less dramatic movement than the Hispanic vote, though both sides made vocal appeals to the black Americans ahead of the election. As an example, DeKalb County, GA, which is heavily African-American and part of the Atlanta metro area, moved approximately 4 points to the Democrats compared to 2016. 

National exit polling had Trump doing around the same with black voters as 2016, with some showing black support for Trump slightly up. Edison's 2016 exit polling had Clinton beating Trump 88 to 8 among black voters, with 4 percent for third parties, and CNN's 2020 exit poll had Biden beating Trump 87 to 12. If these numbers are true, the overall percentage point movement is small, though for the Republicans would represent a 33.33% increase in their percentage increase of black voters.

Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Coronavirus Cases Surge as US, Europe Face Likely Second Wave

The coronavirus pandemic has again shifted into another phase of heightened infection rates, with the United States reporting record case numbers, with Wednesday seeing over 80,000 new reported infections. While the US has remained the country with the most cases throughout most of the pandemic, European countries are experiencing what is being described as the ‘second wave’ of the epidemic, leading to a new series of restrictions and lockdowns. French President Emmanuel Marcon has announced a new one-month lockdown, and Germany’s federal and state governments have closed bars, restaurants, and most forms of public entertainment.

 

Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed to Supreme Court

Barrett, picture here in 2018,
after her elevation to the Seventh
Court of Appeals

Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the Seventh Court of Appeals was confirmed Monday on a nearly party-line vote, with all Democrats voting against confirmation and all Republicans voting for it except for Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is locked in a close reelection battle. 

Barrett, who was nominated last month to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg after her death from pancreatic cancer, is widely viewed as a judicial conservative and has repeatedly affirmed her belief in  originalist jurisprudence that seeks to interpret laws as they were originally written. Her elevation to the high court is expected to shift the court to the right as she replaces the liberal Ginsburg and removes Chief Justice John Roberts, a moderate conservative, as the swing vote.

 

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Trump Nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Seat

 The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose history of overcoming sexism in her career and her liberal jurisprudence during her 27 years on the Supreme Court made her a towering figure in the American legal community, threw another wrench in the American political world. Ginsburg, who died at 87 on September 18, had faced health challenges for several years before she succumbed to pancreatic cancer.

Trump nominated on Saturday federal Appeals Court Judge and legal scholar Amy Coney Barrett to fill her seat. In her acceptance speech for the nomination, Barrett cited Antonin Scalia, noted for his conservative views and originalist jurisprudence, as her greatest influence and has said that her views on constitutional interpretation are the same as his. If Barrett is confirmed, her presence on the court is expected to turn the court more to the right, with conservative-leaning justices holding a 6-3 majority.

Democrats have called for the nomination of a successor to be postponed until after the next president is elected, citing Republicans refusing to consider Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, after the death of Antonin Scalia.

 

Belarus Faces Continued Unrest as Lukashenko Holds Tightly onto Power

Belarusians who have grown tired of Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule continue to demonstrate in the streets as the 66-year old president continues to hold on to power after a disputed election result this month. Official tallies from the government claim he earned over 80% of the vote, while opposition leaders say the result was rigged in his favor, claims which the US, the UK, and the EU support.

Lukashenko has been called “Europe’s last dictator” and has led the country since 1994. While having difficulties in their relationship in the past, Lukashenko is considered a geopolitical ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Coronavirus Cases Trending Down in US, Reemerge in Other Countries

Global coronavirus cases have topped 25 million worldwide as countries around the world struggle to contain the outbreak which began late last year in Hubei Province, China, with worldwide deaths currently numbered at 843,000. France and Spain are among the countries to report a resurgence in their COVID-19 numbers, with the latter being one of the centers of the outbreak when it began its worldwide spread in early 2020.

The United States, the worldwide leader in coronavirus cases and deaths, has seen some encouraging signs as the summer nears its end. New York and New Jersey continue to have low numbers of cases and deaths after suffering at the start of the pandemic in the US, and the later hotspots of Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen their case and death numbers drop off drastically since their peak in July. However, other areas of the country continue to suffer outbreaks, often linked to mass gatherings such as parties. Colleges and universities have clamped down on such gatherings, with some deciding to cancel in-person classes after attempting to reopen for the semester.

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.