Biden Ramps Up Campaign as Trump Faces Financial Headwinds

The Biden campaign raised around $26 million from a New York City fundraiser last week attended by celebrities and two of the three former Democratic presidents. This adds to the president’s and the Democrats’ large fundraising advantage over Donald Trump and the Republicans.

The fundraiser consisted of musical performances by Queen Latifah and Lizzo, along with a panel discussion with Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton and hosted by comedian Stephen Colbert.

Biden’s team has tapped into their funds for a $30 million ad blitz in the swing states, where he largely trails Trump. Biden has closed some of the gap with Trump in these states, but he still trails Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, both in the swing states and nationally.

Trump, facing financial setbacks as a result of his legal troubles, may have gotten a needed boost when his social media company, Truth Social, went public last week under the ticker DJT. The long-awaited listing allowed the company to reach a market capitalization of over $8 billion. Trump’s 58% stake in the company gives the former president $5.2 billion, in addition to his existing wealth from real estate and other investments.

However, a large selloff of his holdings may cause the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group to fall, reducing the liquid wealth from which he can draw. Trump also faces a lock up period in which he cannot sell his shares for six months. He may, however, obtain a waiver from this restriction or borrow money against his holdings.

 

Haley Vows to Stay in Until Super Tuesday

While former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has failed to win any states so far in her quest for the Republican nomination, she has vowed to remain in the primary race until Super Tuesday. Former President Donald Trump has finished first in all states that have voted so far, including Haley’s home state of South Carolina.

Haley is the last major candidate still challenging Trump for the nomination, with all other major GOP challengers dropping out prior to the Iowa caucuses or shortly after. A longshot contender, Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley, dropped out of the race this week and endorsed Trump.

Trump leads Nikki Haley in the RealClearPolitics average of polls 78.7% to 14.5%. So far, Haley has performed much better in each state that has voted than 14.5%, though in Michigan, the latest state to hold its primary, she failed to break 30% of the vote.

Trump’s campaign has appeared to transition to general election campaigning, with Trump choosing not to mention Haley in his victory speech after the South Carolina primary.

 

Biden, Trump Make Dueling Visits to Texas Border Cities

President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump both made visits to the Texas-Mexico border on Thursday. Biden visited Brownsville, the southernmost city in the state, and Trump visited Eagle Pass, one of the most active crossing sites for migrants for the past several years.

Trump landed first in Del Rio before traveling to Eagle Pass, where he was joined by Texas Governor Greg Abbott and by National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd, both staunch backers of Trump in his rematch against Biden in November.

In his speech, Trump blasted Biden, calling him the “worst president” in American history and pledged to reinstate the policies of his presidency, including Remain in Mexico, where asylum claimants waited in Mexico while their claims were adjudicated.

In Brownsville, Biden met with local leaders and border patrol agents, where he had a brief tour of the border and then gave a speech at the border patrol station. After he spoke briefly on the wildfires in the Texas Panhandle, he called on Republicans to pass a bipartisan bill that would allocate money to hire more border patrol agents and judges.

Democrats have accused congressional Republicans of bowing to pressure from Trump to not pass the bill in order to prevent Biden from claiming credit in reducing the number of migrants coming to the US. Republicans counter that Biden can take executive action without the bill and that the bill should not be tied to funding for Ukraine in the war against Russia.

The trip to Brownsville is Biden’s first trip to South Texas and his second to the US-Mexico border.

 

Trump Looks Likely to Take GOP Nod, Haley Vows to Stay In

Coming off two straight victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, former President Donald Trump has moved closer to becoming the Republican nominee in November. While still early in the contest, Trump only faces one major competitor for the race, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, over whom he holds a nearly 55-point lead nationwide, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

Even with this large polling advantage, Haley has vowed to remain in the race, putting her hope in a strong showing in her home state of South Carolina, which votes next month. While it is Haley’s home state, Trump currently has a 30-point polling lead over Haley in the South Carolina.

Trump recently rebuffed an effort by some Republican National Committee (RNC) members to declare Trump the presumptive nominee. Trump wrote on his Truth Social page, “While I greatly appreciate the [RNC] wanting to make me their PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE...I feel...that they should NOT go forward with this plan...and finish the process off AT THE BALLOT BOX.”

 

Trump Enters Not Guilty Plea in Fulton County, GA Case

Former President Donald Trump entered a not guilty plea to 13 state felony counts, including racketeering, Thursday. Trump did not appear in court in person in Atlanta, Georgia, where the charges were filed, but rather filed a written plea which also waived a formal arraignment. Trump surrendered last week to the Fulton County Sheriff’s Office, where he was booked and had his mugshot taken. Trump is one of 19 defendants to be charged by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s office. 

Fani Willis, a Democrat, launched an investigation into Trump and his allies in February 2021 after Trump’s team challenged the results of the 2020 election and in the aftermath. Willis believes Trump and his co-defendants broke the law by their actions challenging the results.

 

2024 Contest Marked by Trump Legal Troubles, Biden Investigations

The two likely general election opponents in the 2024 presidential race are both dealing with their own legal issues. Former President Donald Trump’s are more pressing given his three state and federal indictments, but President Biden faces increased scrutiny over alleged involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings, with calls for impeachment growing among congressional Republicans.

Trump was indicted for the third time this month; in a superseding indictment, he is now alleged to have obstructed justice by scheming to erase video surveillance at Mar-a-Lago in an attempt to cover up his retention of classified material. Trump has denied the charges.

Trump is also expected to face another federal indictment over his actions in challenging the results of the 2020 election and the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. He may also face a state indictment in Georgia over his actions to overturn Biden’s victory in the state in 2020.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden remain the subjects of House GOP inquiries. Biden has long denied any knowledge of his son’s business dealings, which have been linked to previous money laundering, tax evasion, and foreign lobbying investigations, which have led to misdemeanor failure to pay tax charges (Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to those charges after a recent plea deal was effectively rejected during a recent hearing).

Republicans have so far failed to tie Joe Biden directly to Hunter’s business activities, though an FBI document reporting a source’s claim that Joe Biden was bribed by Ukrainian company Burisma has been uncovered. To date, no evidence to confirm that claim has been found.

 

Biden Announces Reelection Campaign

President Joe Biden’s campaign released an announcement video this past week that formally announced his reelection bid in 2024, a move widely expected. Biden enters the race the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with his two announced opponents, self-help author Marianne Williamson and environmental and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polling in the high single digits to low double digits. 

The Republican field, while becoming more crowded, remains  overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and to a lesser extent, the unannounced campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has retained a strong consistent lead over DeSantis throughout the past few months, experiencing a bump following his indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for business falsification charges related to the 2016 hush money payment to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels). DeSantis has a consistent second-place lead, and the only other candidate, unannounced or otherwise, consistently polling in double digits.

Other Republican candidates include former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is running a campaign appealing to her gender and traditional Republican politics, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump’s influence over the GOP, former California gubernatorial candidate and radio host Larry Elder, and technology entrepreneur and political activist Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee and is expected to announce a run in the near future.

 

Former President Donald Trump Indicted by Manhattan Grand Jury

Former US President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury Thursday. Trump is the first president, former or current, to be indicted on a felony charge.

The indictment stems from an October 2016 payment from Michael Cohen, Trump’s then personal lawyer, to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford, better known by her stage name Stormy Daniels, to cover up a 2006 affair between her and Trump. Cohen, who was reimbursed by Trump for the payment, was later convicted for violating campaign finance law for making the payment without it being disclosed as a campaign expenditure. The conviction was part of a larger criminal investigation in which Cohen pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and tax evasion related to his businesses.

The indictment comes amid other probes into Trump’s conduct during his presidency and his post-presidency. He is under investigation by state authorities in Georgia over his alleged attempts to improperly influence election officials in the 2020 election. He also is facing a federal investigation into his handling of classified documents after he left the presidency as well as potential obstruction. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to investigate in the federal case.

Trump is expected to surrender to police on Tuesday next week, where he will be fingerprinted and have his mugshot taken.

One of Trump’s lawyers, Joe Tacopina, is making television appearances defending his client from the alleged charges, also saying that Trump will not take a plea deal in the case.

Republicans have vocally criticized the indictment, accusing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) of political animus. Some congressional Republicans have said they will call on Bragg to testify before Congress regarding the prosecution. Bragg has denied any political motivation for the prosecution. 

Bragg himself is a controversial figure. Elected in 2021, Bragg ran on a progressive platform, promising a less punitive approach to criminal justice focused on rehabilitation rather than punishment. Critics argue his policies are in part responsible for an increase in crime in New York City.

 

Mishandled Classified Documents Scandal Plague Biden, Trump, Pence

The Biden White House continues to work to limit the political and legal fallout from classified documents dating from his time as vice president found at the Penn Biden Center as well as his personal residence.

Biden’s lawyers first alerted the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) on November 2, 2022, of classified documents found at the Penn Biden Center. NARA alerted the Department of Justice (DOJ), which began investigating the handling of the documents. CBS News reported on January 31 that the FBI searched the Penn Biden center in mid-November 2022, something the White House has not yet revealed.

On January 9, the White House revealed the released information about the document situation while trying to draw differences between Biden’s case and former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents after his presidency. Trump’s Florida residence Mar-a-Lago was raided by the FBI on August 8, 2022, and Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel into Trump’s case on November 18.

Garland would do the same in Biden’s case on January 12.

More documents were reported found in Biden’s Wilmington, Delaware residence on January 11. The FBI later conducted a voluntary search of his residence, finding additional documents.

On January 24, NARA revealed that former Vice President Mike Pence also retained classified documents at his Indiana home, leading to speculation that such mishandling of documents may be widespread among high-ranking government officials.

 

Clinton Campaign Lawyer Acquitted of Lying to the FBI

Lawyer for the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign Michael Sussmann was acquitted by a jury in federal court Tuesday, ending a two-week trial in which he was accused of lying to the FBI.

The indictment of Sussmann was part of John Durham’s investigation into the origin of the narrative of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative. The indictment accused Sussmann of lying to the FBI in 2016 when he told FBI General Counsel James Baker that he was not representing a client when discussing his allegation that the Trump campaign was working with Russia. Sussmann was working for the Clinton campaign at the time.

 

Ghislaine Maxwell Federal Trial Begins in New York

The trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite accused of sex trafficking teenage girls along Jeffrey Epstein, begun in New York Monday. Her defense team aims to cast her as a pawn in Epstein’s sordid affairs, while prosecutors aim to demonstrate that Maxwell was a ringleader in the operation.

Epstein, who died in federal custody in 2019 while awaiting trial, was known for his relationships with powerful individuals, including Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, and Donald Trump (before he became president). All men have denied any wrongdoing.

Biden Launches Strikes at Iranian-Backed Militias in Syria

President Biden launched missile strikes against what the US describes as Iran-backed militias operating in Syria on Thursday. These strikes were in retaliation for an attack on US troops stationed in Erbil, Iraq earlier this month which resulted in the death of a civilian contractor. While the initial attack occurred in Iraq, the retaliatory strikes were aimed at militias in Syria to avoid a diplomatic spat with the Iraqi government, which has strong ties to Iran.

The Biden administration has said they hope to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran as they hope to renew talks to enter a nuclear deal. President Trump had exited the previous nuclear deal during his term, and Biden has promised to attempt to reenter the agreement during his term.

Trump had also directly confronted Iran through the killing of General Qassim Soleimani in January 2020 over the general’s repeated attacks on US troops over the years. Iran did launch retaliatory strikes in response which caused injuries to US servicemembers in the region; however, there was no escalation to a full-blown conflict that some had feared may have resulted from Soleimani’s killing.

 

Trump Makes First Public Appearance Since Leaving Office at CPAC

Former President Donald Trump appeared publicly for the first time since leaving office in January, giving a speech at CPAC in Orlando, Florida. During the speech he said he will not establish a new political party, rather focusing on influencing the Republican Party. He also broke with recent tradition, directly criticizing President Joe Biden’s presidency, saying, “Joe Biden has had the most disastrous first month of any president in modern history.”

Trump won the presidential straw poll with 55%, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis  coming in second, winning 21%. While DeSantis had a home field advantage, with CPAC being held in Florida rather than its usual location in National Harbor, Maryland, it could signal that DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, could become a strong opponent to Trump should both run in 2024.

 

Biden Works to Advance His Agenda in His First Days

President Biden has begun pushing his agenda in his first days as president, issuing numerous executive orders and laying out his administration’s plan for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

Biden has already issued more than three dozen executive orders that cover issues including abortion, immigration and border security, economic regulations, COVID-19, criminal justice, and climate change. The pace of Biden’s executive orders is largely unprecedented this early in one’s presidency, with presidents previously spreading their first executive orders, especially over more controversial matters, over several months.

While Republicans have predictably criticized Biden’s orders, many of which reverse or rollback former President Trump’s own executive orders, some Democrats have also said that the administration should focus on legislative action to increase the scope of change as well as make such changes more permanent. Executive orders can easily be reversed by future administrations and cannot change or add to existing legislation.

Pushing through his agenda in Congress in the coming weeks could prove difficult for the president. He faces an evenly split Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris would cast a tie-breaking vote and a House of Representatives with a slim Democratic majority. In addition, the next few weeks are likely to be consumed with the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump, who was impeached just before his term ended over his alleged role in encouraging rioters who broke into and occupied the Capitol building on January 6. Regular Senate business is likely to be postponed or curtailed during trial proceedings.

 

Joe Biden Sworn in as 46th President

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. has been sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. He takes office as the oldest president in American history after he defeated incumbent Republican Donald Trump, who conceded defeat this month.

His running mate, Kamala Harris, has become the first woman to become Vice President, as well as the first black and Asian-American to take that office. She is the second Vice President to have significant non-white ancestry, after Charles Curtis, Calvin Coolidge's vice president.

Biden emphasized unity in his inaugural speech, citing a need for a more constructive, less divisive political climate to address the challenges the country faces.

Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

Interesting Data Points from This Month's Election

While President Trump continues to challenge the legitimacy of the this month's election and President-elect Biden begins the transition effort, the election has provided some interesting data points that election data wonks and otherwise political junkies can pore over for months to come.

Death of the Bellwethers 

Several counties across the US have been excellent bellwethers in recent elections, voting for the ultimate winner of the election (in the electoral college, not necessarily in the popular vote). The most accurate one was Vigo County, Indiana, home of Terra Haute, which has voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1956 on.

 Until 2020. 

And it wasn't alone. In fact, most notable bellwether counties failed to predict Joe Biden's win. Hidalgo County, NM has predicted all elections successfully since 1972, but voted for Trump this year. Other counties that failed included Essex County, VT, Westmoreland County, VA, Coos County, NH, and Darlington County, SC, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Successful bellwether counties included Blaine County, MT, Kent County, DE, and Clallam County, WA, all which voted for Biden this year after voting for Trump in 2016. 

So why the shift? These counties tend to be low-population with a rural character, areas in which Trump has performed well and have been shifting towards Republicans for years. In the case of Kent County, Delaware, while it is the least populous county in the state, it contains the state capital of Dover and is in Biden's home state. Vigo County, Indiana, meanwhile seems to be swinging towards Republicans. It was not particularly close in either 2016 or 2020, and voted for a Republican governor for the first time in decades.

In conclusion, the failure of the bellwethers the cycle may be a one-off, or a signal of a long term political shift.

Longtime Republican Counties Turning Blue

Orange County, CA made news in 2016 after voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, making the former secretary of state the first Democrat to win the county since 1936. Orange County for years was synonymous with Southern Californian conservatism and was the bedrock of Republican support in the Golden State. 

The affluent suburban shift to Democrats over the past few cycles accelerated under Trump, with Orange County perhaps the most visible example. Orange County shifted even more Democratic in 2020 in the presidential race, though two Orange County House seats flipped back to the Republicans after being taken by Democrats in 2018 (these two seats were handily won by incumbent Republicans in 2016). 

Other traditionally Republican counties shifted Blue for the first time in decades. Duval County, FL, which is essentially conterminous with Jacksonville, voted Republican for the first time since 1976. Duval went for Trump in 2016, but voted for Democratic candidates for the Senate and the governorship in 2018. Likewise for Seminole County, FL a suburban county outside Orlando, which voted Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1948.

Even more dramatic was Riley County, KS, home of Manhattan and Kansas State University. The county voted Democratic for the first time ever. While Riley County has voted Democratic (sometimes by large margins) in state races, its strong Union sympathies set the stage to keep the county Republican for a century and a half. 

Tarrant County, TX, home of Fort Worth, voted Democratic (albeit by less than 1%) for the first time since 1956. Maricopa County, AZ, home of Phoenix, went blue for the first time since 1948. These were the last counties with over 1 million people to have voted Republican in 2016. 

Oklahoma County, OK, home of Oklahoma City, remained Republican by only 1.1 percentage points. In 2016 the county voted Republican by 10.5%, though third parties won 7.1% that cycle. This time around it was only 2.7%. 

In all these counties, the blue trend mostly comes from the shift in college-educated voters voting more Democratic, while Republicans have found a new base among voters without college degrees.

Republican Surprise in Hispanic-Majority Areas of Texas

South Texas, with strong Hispanic majorities in most counties, has been an ancestrally Democratic region, rarely supporting Republicans since statehood. While Biden held on to the most populous counties of Hidalgo (home of McAllen and Edinburg) and Cameron (Brownsville and Harlingen), its margins in both counties were diminished from 2016, moving against the predominant Democratic shift (to a varying degree) across most counties in the US from 2016. E

Even more dramatic were the results in less populous but even more Hispanic counties such as Zapata and Starr. Zapata voted Republican for the first time in 2016, with Trump besting Biden by 5.5 points. Starr remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by 5.1 points, though Clinton beat Trump by 60.2 pints in 2016, a 55.1 swing to the Republicans, the largest in the nation.

Traditionally Democratic-leaning counties of Val Verde (in West Texas, home of Del Rio), Jim Wells (home of Alice), Reeves (also in West Texas), LaSalle, and Frio all flipped GOP this cycle. Other Democratic counties like Maverick (home of Eagle Pass) and Webb (Laredo) remained Democratic with reduced margins. 

Trump's performance likely helped Tony Gonzalez keep Will Hurd's seat for the GOP in Texas's 23rd Congressional District and likely nearly flipped Texas's 15th (based in McAllen), which no national observers had rated competitive.

A similar circumstance occurred in 2004 with George Bush's landslide victory in the state, even narrowly carrying Cameron, which Trump failed to do this time around. Bush's strong showing in this part of the state likely derives from the favorite son effect and his strong showing among Hispanics. Trump also performed relatively strongly with Hispanics in 2020, and it remains to be seen whether these results indicate a long-term shift to the GOP or was a one-off event. 

Trump's Improvement Among Hispanics Nationally

Exit polls have Trump winning around 32-36% of the Hispanic vote, better than the approximately 29% he received in 2016. 

In Miami-Dade County, FL, home to Miami, Trump dramatically improved his performance among Hispanics from 2016, especially among Cuban-Americans. While he did not win this large county of 2.7 million, his losing margin was only approximately 7 points, versus the 29 point margin by which he lost in 2016. A similar but much smaller improvement for Trump was seen in Osceola County, FL, outside Orlando, which has a large Puerto Rican population, a demographic that tends to vote more Democratic than other Hispanic groups.

In relatively small Imperial County, CA, home of Brawley and El Centro, Biden managed to keep the county Democratic, though Trump managed to cut off about 15 points off the margin of victory for the Democrats from 2016. Imperial is approximately 80% Hispanic.

The Black Vote

The black vote experienced less dramatic movement than the Hispanic vote, though both sides made vocal appeals to the black Americans ahead of the election. As an example, DeKalb County, GA, which is heavily African-American and part of the Atlanta metro area, moved approximately 4 points to the Democrats compared to 2016. 

National exit polling had Trump doing around the same with black voters as 2016, with some showing black support for Trump slightly up. Edison's 2016 exit polling had Clinton beating Trump 88 to 8 among black voters, with 4 percent for third parties, and CNN's 2020 exit poll had Biden beating Trump 87 to 12. If these numbers are true, the overall percentage point movement is small, though for the Republicans would represent a 33.33% increase in their percentage increase of black voters.

Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.