Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 

Coronavirus Cases Spike Across the US, World

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached 10 million this month as governments struggle to contain the spread of the deadly virus. The resulting infections have led to at least confirmed 500,000 deaths.

In the United States, the majority of states have reported a rising number of cases, with the only region spared from the uptick being the Northeast, which was most affected when the outbreak started in March and April. Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a large jump in cases, prompting state and local leaders to reinstitute certain control measures, such as closing bars, mandating mask wearing, and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Around one quarter of confirmed deaths worldwide have occurred in the United States, whose death toll currently stands at around 125,000. The worldwide number of deaths is likely higher than 500,000 because of underreporting and the suspiciously low numbers reported by the Chinese government, especially given China’s role as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Vice President Mike Pence has announced support for wearing masks in a recent interview with CBS News, though President Donald Trump himself has been ambivalent about encouraging masks and has not encouraged mask wearing mandates. Wearing surgical and cloth masks can reduce the spread of the virus to others if the wearer is sick, but has not been shown to offer significant protection to the wearer. The US government has encouraged protective N95 standard masks to be used only by health care professionals and other emergency responders. Notably, US health officials discouraged the purchase of N95 masks by individuals at the beginning of the outbreak, misrepresenting their effectiveness to the public, in an attempt to preserve them for health care workers.

Social Unrest Continues Across the US

The death of George Floyd in Minneapolis at the hands of four police officers last month led to social friction, and while the most violent undercurrent has ebbed for now, it has not fully abated. Protestors condemning the treatment of black Americans by police as well as society at-large have been largely peaceful, though some in the movement have insisted on more forceful measures, such as toppling statues, spray painting monuments, and occupying public spaces. The most notable of the last is the Seattle Capital Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP), which has resisted attempts to disperse as its occupants continue to control several city blocks.