Thursday, April 30, 2020

Israeli Political Crisis Comes to an End For Now


After three elections within the past year, Israel is set to have a permanent government for the first time since 2019.

In all three elections, neither the left wing nor the right-wing coalitions were able to gather a majority of legislators, with neither bloc willing to form an alliance with the Joint List, a group of Arab-interest parties. In addition, Avigdor Lieberman, who leads a secularist right-wing party refused to join incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc over a dispute on requiring Orthodox Jews to perform military service.

As part of an agreement, Netanyahu will serve as prime minister until October 2021, when his center-left rival-turned-partner Benny Gantz will take over.


General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month



Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.


Reopenings Slowly Begin as Coronavirus Pandemic Continues


Some states will begin efforts to reopen more portions of their economy after over a month of widespread lockdowns and stay at home orders aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes the disease COVID-19.

Earlier this month, a coalition of northeastern US governors formed in an effort to coordinate efforts to allow certain businesses to reopen. The Northeast has been hit especially hard by the pandemic, with New York and New Jersey composing the most active hotspot for new infections, and Massachusetts recently emerging as a center of new cases. Other hotspots include Michigan (especially the Detroit metropolitan area) as well as Louisiana.

Texas is the largest state so far to announce large-scale reopening efforts. For example, on Friday restaurants will be allowed to serve at 25% seating capacity, with counties with less than five confirmed cases (mostly rural and low population) will be allowed to reopen at 50% capacity. Over time the capacity allowance will be increased if the number of infections remains stable or decreases. While Texas has been spared the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, concerns over new infections linger, with Lamar County (home of Paris, Texas) reporting a stark increase in infections just before reopening efforts. Bars and movie theaters will continue to be closed.

Around the world, countries continue to face the worst public health crisis many of them have faced since the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, himself having been infected by the virus, announced that the UK was ‘past the peak’ in infection cases.


Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Trump Approval Up, Biden Campaign Sidelined


President Trump’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since the start of his presidency. While it is still underwater, his favorable-unfavorable margin has shrunk to around –4, according to an aggregation by FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has largely remained on the sidelines since his string of primary victories earlier this month, effectively knocking out his sole challenger for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He had promised he would give regular updates and campaign speeches through videos produced at his home, though his shaky performance in these and in media interviews has discouraged further campaign media productions for now.

Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, with some saying the president’s response to the threat was delayed. Trump counters that the US response has been aggressive and that widespread testing has helped reduce the spread.

Trump’s approval for handling the coronavirus is positive, though lower than that of state and government responses.


Coronavirus Pandemic Infects the World


The United States, according to official numbers, leads the world in coronavirus disease (officially named COVID-19) cases at over 186,000 confirmed infections. China, the origin country of the outbreak, reports just under 82,000 cases, though given the country’s central role in the virus’s original spread and subsequent transmission as well as its much larger population, that number likely significantly underestimates the number of infected.

Countries with a higher per capita rate of infection than the US include Spain and Italy, which also have had higher mortality rates (~10%). The US, in contrast, has had a mortality rate of around 2%. The true mortality rate of those infected is likely lower than these reported numbers, as it only takes into account confirmed cases. Many coronavirus cases are asymptomatic or only show mild symptoms.

Most states in the US have issued “stay-at-home” orders, which only allow limited travel to essential work functions or for shopping. The New York metropolitan area has been especially hit hard, with local morgues running out of room for the dead and refrigerated truck being brought into service as temporary morgues.

China has begun to lift restrictions on Wuhan, the city in which the virus originated (likely at a wet market in which live animals and meat are sold). The country has come under international criticism for its handling of the disease as its government worked to silence the voices of those raising concerns of the virus when it first appeared late last year. The most visible whistleblower, Li Wenliang, died after raising the alarm on the virus. The Chinese government had targeted Li in December 2019, accusing him of “spreading rumors.”