GOP Achieves Narrow House Majority

Republicans have won 220 seats in the US House of Representatives, two more needed to win the majority. One California seat remains too close to call, with the Democratic challenger leading the GOP incumbent by nearly 200 votes as of November 30. A GOP victory in the seat would bring the Republicans to 221 seats, one less than their majority after the 2022 midterm elections.

While the Republican majority will be narrow and will make passing President-elect Trump’s agenda more difficult, it remains a welcome development for the GOP given most election prognosticators predicting a Democratic majority in the House. Republicans managed to offset losses in New York (partially through redistricting), California, and Oregon through picking up seats in North Carolina (largely through redistricting), Pennsylvania, Michigan, Alaska, and Colorado.

The narrow majority may make Speaker Mike Johnson’s political calculus more difficult given Trump’s poaching of Elise Stefanik, Michael Waltz, and Matt Gaetz (since withdrawn but not returning to House) for his administration. With the three resignations, the House majority becomes 220-213.

 

Syrian Rebels Enter Aleppo in First Major Offensive in Years

Syrian rebel forces captured parts of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, in the first major offensive since 2020. Pro-government forces reportedly put up little substantive opposition as rebel forces advanced towards Aleppo.

Neither side has sought to make large scale advances since the 2020 ceasefire agreement. The Syrian government’s major allies, Iran (through their proxy Hezbollah) and Russia, have since been bogged down by their own conflicts in Lebanon and Ukraine respectively, creating an opening for rebel forces to begin a large scale offensive.

 

Trump Poised to Regain Presidency After Clinching 270 Votes

Former President Donald Trump is projected by Decision Desk HQ to win the 2024 presidential election, defeating his Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris. As of 12:30 AM CST, Trump is projected to win Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, giving him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. He is also leading in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 

Harris Campaign Co-Chair Cedric Richmond told the crowd at Harris's election night party at Howard University that Harris would not be addressing the crowd this night and for them to return home.

Trump meanwhile is heading towards his election night watch party in Palm Beach, Florida. He was previously at Mar-a-Lago watching election results.

Trump, Harris Making Closing Arguments Ahead of Nov. 5

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are making last minute appeals to get their supporters to the polls as election day approaches. Both candidates are effectively tied nationwide and in seven key swing states, though Trump has an advantage in the polling aggregate nationwide and in 5 of the 7 states, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate as of October 30th.

Both recently held what could be considered capstone rallies, with Trump holding his at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan and Harris at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C. In both rallies, the candidates largely reiterated their familiar campaign talking points. Trump’s focused his on combatting illegal immigration along with his proposals to eliminate taxes on taxes on tips, overtime, and social security benefits. Harris focused hers on protecting abortion rights and fighting against what she sees as threats to democracy emanating from Trump’s actions and rhetoric, particularly after the 2020 election.

Betting markets as of October 30th place Trump as the slight favorite to win the election, with a Trump victory paying out approximately 65 cents to a Harris victory’s approximate 35 cents.

 

Southeast Reels from Hurricanes: Helene and Milton’s Devastation

The US Southeast continues to face significant challenges in the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which struck in rapid succession in late September and early October. Hurricane Helene resulted in over 200 fatalities, marking it as the deadliest mainland US hurricane since Katrina. Hurricane Milton, while having a lower death toll at 35, virtually ties Helene for total damages, making the combined damages from both hurricanes estimated at just under $175 billion.

In response, the federal government has approved nearly $2 billion in aid for six affected states, and FEMA has deployed over 1,400 personnel to assist with recovery efforts. State governments have also mobilized National Guard units and established emergency hotlines to support residents.

As communities begin the arduous process of rebuilding, many residents remain without power or running water. Despite these hardships, there are stories of resilience and solidarity. In devastated western North Carolina, volunteers are using mules to deliver supplies to remote areas as restoration contractors work tirelessly to repair homes and businesses.