Smaller GOP Gains Than Expected Lead to Split Congress

The expected red wave, in which Republicans were predicted to make major gains across the country, may not have materialized the way some Republican had hoped, but they did manage to gain the seats needed to take control of the US House of Representatives, ending unified Democratic control of Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats were able to keep their Senate majority and possibly expand it, pending the result of the Georgia’s Senate runoff in December.

So far, 220 seats have been declared won by Republicans in the House, with two seats still uncalled, though Republicans lead in both and are likely to win. However, while gaining control of the House is an undeniable victory for the GOP, their majority (likely 222-213) is smaller than what most were expecting. A GOP majority of at least 230 seats in the next congress would have given their leadership more breathing room for difficult votes. Now, with a narrow majority to contend, passing their favored legislation, or even blocking certain Democratic-backed legislation, will likely prove a more difficult task to manage.

Republicans fell short in their quest to reclaim the Senate majority, losing their Pennsylvania seat and failing so far to pick up any Democratic seats. While Republicans could pick up a seat in Georgia in December should Herschel Walker defeat incumbent Raphael Warnock, that result would lead to a 50-50 split, under which Democrats would still retain control.

The Republicans also fell short of their ambitions in state governments, only picking up one governorship (Nevada) while losing three (Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona).

 

Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin Dies at 96

Former President of China Jiang Zemin, who led the country in the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square protest and its violent suppression, died Wednesday at 96.

Born in 1926, Jiang represented the third generation of Chinese leadership, following the tenures of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. He became communist party general secretary in 1989 and Chinese president in 1993. Under his leadership, the Chinese economy continued to grow and began to take on a more consumerist orientation. During his tenure, several state-owned enterprises were privatized and deregulated. These moves have been credited with strengthening the economy while also leading to higher unemployment and corruption.

China regained control of both Hong Kong and Macau during his time in office, increasing the country’s international standing.

 

Rare Widespread Protests Rock China amid Zero-Covid Policy

China’s ‘zero-covid’ policy, along with a deadly residential fire in Xinjiang which may have been exacerbated by the policy, have led to the greatest show of public discontent since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

A deadly fire in a residential building high-rise building in Urumqi, Xinjiang on November 24 was a major catalyst for the unrest. The building’s residents were reportedly prevented from fleeing the building as a result of the strict quarantine policies, and emergency responders experienced difficulty reaching the building and breaching barriers.

Protests have spread to major cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, and the capital Beijing. University students have also protested at Tsinghua, Peking, and Sun Yat-sen Universities.

Police are reportedly checking the phones of people on the streets to see if certain apps, such as Instagram or Telegram, are installed on them. Protesters and other observers have used these apps to share news and footage of the protests to the outside world.

 

Election Predictions: Election Day 2022

Here are our predictions for the House, Senate, and governor races for today's election:

House

Senate

Governors

Let us know where you agree and disagree in the comments!

GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

Crowd Crush in Seoul Leaves At Least 154 Dead

A human crowd crush during Halloween celebrations in Seoul, South Korea left at least 154 dead and injured at least 152 more.

The cause of the incident, the deadliest peacetime disaster in the country since the 2014 ferry sinking killing 306, is still under investigation. Local outlets reported that it may have been caused by people trying to see a yet-to-be identified celebrity in a nearby club.

 

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Wins Election

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, often known mononymously as Lula, won Sunday’s presidential vote to recapture his old position, defeating incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by just under 2 million votes out of nearly 120 million cast, or by around 1.8 percentage points.

The election marks a remarkable comeback for the former two-term president, who led the country from 2003 to 2010. Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff, a fellow member of his left-wing Worker Party (PT), was impeached on corruption charges. Lula himself was convicted on corruption and money laundering charges in 2017, spending 580 days in jail. Lula successfully appealed his conviction, which he and his supporters argued was politically motivated, in 2021, clearing the way for him to run for president in 2022.

Outgoing President Bolsonaro, considered one of the most right-wing current leaders of a democratic country, has not yet conceded the election. While he lost, he outperformed most opinion polls, which had him losing to Lula by 5-10 points.

Queen Elizabeth's Funeral Caps Days of Mourning for Late British Monarch

The world said goodbye to the Queen Elizabeth II on Monday, with heads of state from around the world joining British royalty and politicians at Westminster Abbey. The memorial services, which were part of larger funeral plans decades in the making, were relatively short, in keeping with the queen’s wishes.

Following the service, her casket was taken to Buckingham Palace for a final time before being rolled to Wellington Arch, where it was then transferred to the hearse. Members of the public lined up along the road as her body was taken to Windsor Castle, where a second, smaller service occurred. At this service, the crown, orb, and scepter were removed from atop the casket, and her body was lowered into the chapel. The funeral was concluded later in the day with a private ceremony for her family, in which the queen was buried next to her husband, the late Duke of Edinburgh Prince Philip, and other deceased members of the royal family, including her late father, King George VI, mother, and sister.

The funeral caps ten days of mourning for the queen, who died September 8 after it was reported she was under medical supervision.

 

Queen Elizabeth II: 1926-2022

Queen Elizabeth's seven-decade reign ended September 8, with her death at 96 announced by Buckingham Palace. Her time on the throne spanned 15 prime ministers, from Churchill to Truss, and 14 US presidents, from Truman to Biden. It outlasted the Soviet Union, from Stalin to Gorbachev, and saw both the entry and exit of the UK from the European Union.

While the queen did not take an active role in politics, were seven decades on the throne saw a massive shift in Britain's place in the world: From superpower empire to a lesser great power status with still a major influence on the world. One of the last living links to World War II at the time of her death, she set the record for the longest reigning monarch of the UK and the second longest reigning monarch of a sovereign nation in history, only second to King Louis XIV of France and his 72 years on the throne (the first part of which was a regency given his young age). 

Elizabeth was born on April 21, 1926. Her father, then known as 'Albert,' was not expected to become king, with Edward (who was often called David), the elder brother to Albert, the heir apparent to the then-reigning King George V. Edward ascended to the throne after George V's death in 1936, becoming King Edward VIII.

Her fate turned when Edward VIII abdicated his throne in 1936 to marry American divorcee Wallis Simpson. Albert became King George VI, and she became heir to the throne. George VI led his country through WWII. 

Elizabeth became an honorary member of the women's Auxiliary Territorial Service, training as a driver and a mechanic. She appeared with her father and Prime Minister Winston Churchill on May 8, 1945, on the balcony of Buckingham Palace to celebrate the end of the war in Europe following Germany's surrender. 

In 1947, after Elizabeth turned 21, she married Philip, a member of the Greek and Danish royal families. Philip and Elizabeth had met when she was 13 and he was 18, and they had exchanged letters since. To marry her, Philip gave up his foreign royal titles and became a British subject.

In 1948, their first son, Charles, was born. In 1950, they had their only daughter, Anne.

In 1952, after suffering with health problems largely related to his heavy smoking, George VI died. Elizabeth and Philip were in Kenya at the time, and they immediately returned to the UK. Her formal coronation occurred the following year.

The first two decades of her reign saw a dramatic shift in the role of the UK in geopolitics. Postwar Britain, while still an empire with global influence, faced severe economic challenges in the years that followed, including food rationing until 1954. While economic growth picked up in the 1950s, Britain's status as a superpower eroded, especially in the aftermath of the Suez Crisis in 1956. The 1960s saw a wave of decolonization and independence of the UK's African colonies, starting with Ghana in 1957, and with it, the loss of much of the British Empire. 

While the UK's hard political power declined in this era, these decades saw the rise of Britain's soft cultural power. British popular music was exported throughout the world, with the 'British Invasion' of music to the US, most notably through the Beatles, cementing a greater cultural affinity between the two nations. In 1969, a reality show style documentary, Royal Family, premiered in the UK, which helped bring about their status as not just royals, but celebrities.

The 1970s saw major changes in British politics and economics. Decimalization of the pound occurred in 1971. In 1973, the UK entered the European Union, though it was a more hesitant member and opted out of many of the bloc's programs. The late 1970s saw increased labor disputes, with the winter of 1978 and 1979 termed the 'Winter of Discontent.' These economic issues led to Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives winning a parliamentary majority in 1979 and the ushering in of liberal economic reforms of the 1980s. 

The royal family's image received a large boost with the 1981 'Wedding of the Century': the marriage of Prince Charles and Lady Diana Spencer. While the wedding itself was grand success from a public relations standpoint, the resulting marriage was not. Charles had carried on an extramarital affair with Camilla Shand, who he had dated prior to his marriage with Diana. Diana and he separated in 1992, and they were divorced in 1996. The marriage of her other son, Prince Andrew, also collapsed in 1992, along with the divorce of Anne and her husband. These events, along with a fire in Windsor Castle, led to Elizabeth calling 1992 her 'Annus horribilis,' or horrible year.

Diana later died in a car crash in 1997 in France as her driver tried fleeing the paparazzi. Queen Elizabeth's response was criticized at the time as not sensitive enough. Elizabeth later did a televised speech honoring her memory that allayed some of the criticism.

In 2002, her mother, Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother, the widow of George VI, died at 101. Queen Elizabeth, now the matriarch of the royal family, was often seen as a grandmotherly figure in the last two decades of her rule. Her grandson William, the eldest son of Charles, married Catherine "Kate" Middleton in 2011. 

Queen Elizabeth, known for her humor, participated in the 2012 London Olympics ceremony, acting in a piece with James Bond actor Daniel Craig and having a stunt double dressed as her parachute into the stadium.

Her last decade on the throne saw two major referendums. The first in 2015 saw Scottish independence voted down (a result with which she was reportedly happy, though she did not publicly comment on her preference). The second in 2016 was voters approve the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union. The process of 'Brexit' dominated the country's politics for years until it was finally complete in 2020 after Conservatives won a strong victory in the 2019 parliamentary elections. The resulting parliament approved the terms of the Brexit deal.

Her final years were shadowed by the coronavirus pandemic, which caused the deaths of thousands in the country. The queen herself would contract the disease, though she survived the infection.

Prince Philip, after suffering years of health issues, died in April 2021 at 99. The queen continued working, though her own health issues became more apparent at the time of her Platinum Jubilee earlier this year, which celebrated her 70 years on the throne, the first British monarch to reach that milestone.

Elizabeth had been at Balmoral Castle in Scotland in the weeks preceding her death. She met with Prime Minister Liz Truss to formally invite her to form a government after Truss had won the Conservative leadership contest to replace outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Her meeting with Truss would be the last time the queen would have a public photograph taken.

Drone show at Buckingham Palace for Queen's
Platinum Jubilee
By Amr Vignesh - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=118968536

On September 8, it was announced that she was placed on medical supervision and that her family was traveling to Balmoral Castle to be with her. This sparked speculation that the queen was in her final hours, especially after BBC personalities changed to dark suits (which were part of contingency plans should the queen die). Her death was announced a few hours later.

With her death, Charles, who had been heir apparent for 70 years, became King Charles III. His wife Camilla became queen consort. William became Prince of Wales, with his Catherine becoming Princess of Wales, the first to hold that title since Diana. 

Her funeral will take place on Monday, September 19. 

Queen Elizabeth II Dies at 96

Queen Elizabeth II has died at 96 at Balmoral Castle in Scotland. Elizabeth had reigned since 1952, following the death of her father King George VI. Her 70 years on the British throne was the longest reign in British history and the second longest reign of a sovereign ruler in history, just after King Louis XIV of France.

Queen Elizabeth was born April 21, 1926. She ascended the throne on February 6, 1952. Her reign spanned 15 prime ministers, from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss. 

Her son, Charles, has become king upon her death.

Mikhail Gorbachev: 1931-2022

Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union who presided over its dissolution and abandonment of Marxist-Leninist communism, died Tuesday at 91. Russian news agencies reported that his death followed “a serious and long” illness.

One of the most consequential leaders of the 20th century, Gorbachev was born in 1931, the only Soviet leader born after the USSR was already established. Moving his way up through the Communist Party ranks, he joined the Politburo in 1979. Following the brief terms of Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko, he became General Secretary in 1985.

By the time he came to power, the Soviet Union had a stagnant economy, a dysfunctional government, and a military quagmire in Afghanistan. In an attempt to salvage the Soviet Union, he initiated structural reforms, perestroika, and a new openness and transparency to the outside world unprecedented in Soviet history, glasnost.

The reforms were not enough to salvage the failing Soviet system, however, and even helped lead to the dissolution of the state. Western countries at this time were prospering economically, and defense initiatives in the US, such as President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, or 'Star Wars'), further weakened Soviet morale as they were unable to compete effectively.

Anti-communist movements gained strength in communist eastern European countries, leading to the revolutions of 1989. By the start of the next decade, the constituent countries of the USSR began to break away from the country, and with few exceptions, Gorbachev did not use force to put down the revolts. Surviving a coup attempt by communist hardliners but unable to save the USSR, Gorbachev resigned December 25, 1991, ending the Soviet Union.

His legacy since the end of his rule has largely been largely positive in the West, praising his openness to the outside world and allowing the Soviet Union to dissolve relatively peacefully. In Russia, his legacy has been more negative, with the main criticism being that he allowed the Soviet Union to collapse. Russia, while still a powerful country, no longer plays the pivotal role it did as the USSR and faces numerous economic and geopolitical challenges as a post-Soviet country.

 

Democratic Fortunes Improve After Recent Victories

 Facing the prospect of significant losses in the November midterm elections, Democrats’ fortunes may have improved if recent election results are any indication. Along with an increase in President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, Democrats have expressed more confidence that they will keep the Senate majority and possibly keep their House majority.

The most notable recent indication the Republicans may not have a lock on Congressional control after the midterms are the results of the special US House election in New York. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro, 51.1% to 48.7%, in the 19th congressional district, slightly overperforming Biden’s performance in 2020. In the New York’s 23rd, Republican Joe Sempolinski won 6.5 percentage points, underperforming Trump’s 11-point victory in 2020.

In Kansas, voters rejected by a double-digit margin to allow the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion in the state.

Biden’s approval ratings have also improved in recent weeks, though they still remain negative.

 

Manchin and Schumer Announce Reconciliation Deal

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to revive a slimmed down version of the ‘Build Back Better Act’ that Manchin had rejected in December 2021. Perhaps most surprisingly, the revived deal includes climate change expenditures and tax increases that Manchin had claimed he had ruled out earlier this month following months of negotiations between him and Schumer. Any revised deal had been expected only to include an extension of Obamacare health care plan subsidies and a drug pricing negotiation package aimed at reducing the cost of prescription drugs.

The deal now includes a minimum tax rate on corporations of 15% of their book profit, preventing them from using depreciation expenses to reduce their tax rate below 15%. It also eliminates the carried interest loophole.

Perhaps the most controversial part of the bill is the $80 billion given to the IRS over the next 10 years, the bulk of which will be used for increased audits in an attempt to raise revenue for the federal government. Proponents of the plan, such as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), claim the increased audits will catch high income tax cheats and will pay for themself. Opponents, including most Republicans, claims the IRS will target ordinary taxpayers to raise the revenue, especially the self-employed. The bill’s language does not currently limit the IRS’s increased enforcement budget to only audits on high income/high net worth individuals or corporations.

This plan will need the support of all 50 Democratic senators to pass the Senate. Moderate Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has not yet announced her position.

 

Kentucky Floods Kill at Least 26

Heavy rains in Kentucky this past week caused massive flooding that has claimed the lives of at least 26 people, according to Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D). As many as 37 remain unaccounted for as rescuers attempt to access affected areas, efforts that have been hampered by damage to roads and bridges.

A dozen shelters were opened for flood victims, with least 388 residents taking refuge there Sunday.

The flooding has swept homes off their foundations and sweeping debris for hundreds of yards.

More rain is expected for many of the affected areas in Kentucky, further threatening residents already struggling to recover.

Map showing rainfall totals in Kentucky from 7/25

through 7/29. The heaviest rainfall totals, in red, were 

in eastern Kentucky.

US Enters Recession after Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth

The US economy officially entered recession in the second quarter of 2022, after official estimates showed the GDP, a measure of total economic output, declining at 0.9% rate in Q2. It follows a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

The Biden administration downplayed the decline and refused to say that the US was in recession, touting the low unemployment rate (3.6%) and strong consumer spending. While two consecutive quarters of economic decline is the typical definition of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research also makes their own call whether the US economy is in recession.

 

Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

The Supreme Court issued their decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization last Friday, overturning the previous Supreme Court decisions Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, allowing states to ban abortions within their jurisdictions. The previous decisions that were overturned had found that a constitutional right to abortion had existed and prevented states from banning it.

The court’s decision in Dobbs was praised by pro-life, anti-abortion rights activists who had long sought to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling. Up to 26 states are expected to ban abortions or greatly limit the ability to obtain one.

Pro-choice, pro-abortion rights activists opposed the decision, calling it a threat to women’s rights and promising federal action to preserve abortion rights, such as access to abortion pills and possibly allowing abortions on federal lands in states that ban it.

President Biden has criticized the ruling and has said that he supports codifying a nationwide right to abortion into federal law. Such legislation would require creating an exception to the filibuster rule in the Senate or scrapping the filibuster altogether. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), while supportive of abortion rights, are opposed to such a move.

Some opponents of the Dobbs ruling are calling for changes to the Supreme Court, with some going so far as to call it ‘illegitimate’ and calling for new justices to be added to the court to balance out its conservative lean. Three of the five justices who voted to overturn Roe were appointed by former President Trump during his term.

 

Democrats Attempt Last Push for Build Back Better Revival

Democrats are working to pass a slimmed down version of the Build Back Better bill that failed to pass last year, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) negotiating with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), whose opposition sunk the bill last time, to agree to a smaller package focused on tax increases, deficit reduction, and climate spending, among other proposals.

Manchin and Schumer are reportedly close to a deal to allow the federal government to negotiate drug prices and limit price increases to the inflation rate. Such a proposal will need to be approved by the Senate parliamentarian to include in the reconciliation bill, which will allow Democrats to pass the bill by a simple majority and without any Republican support.

Any package will need the support of all Democrats in the Senate, including moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who has signaled her opposition in the past to raising certain taxes.

Senate Minority Leader (R-KY) sent a tweet Thursday saying that Republicans will not help move forward a bill aimed at competing with China so long as Democrats are pursuing the reconciliation package.

 

Supreme Court Issues Flurry of Conservative Opinions in End of Term

The Supreme Court issued several other notable rulings widely seen as wins for conservatives:

· NYSRPA v. Bruen: Struck down a New York state that required gun permit applicants to show a reason for why they needed to carry a gun

· West Virginia v. EPA: Limits the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate greenhouse gas emissions absent further congressional action

· Kennedy v. Bremerton School District: Coach fired for praying during school game had right to do so under 1st Amendment

 

Uvalde School Shooting Raises Questions, Calls for Gun Control

The devastating shooting last week that claimed the lives of 19 students and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, has led to renewed calls by gun control proponents to control firearm sales and availability. Gun rights supporters have criticized those calls, saying that such measures would not have a major effect on public safety and would erode constitutional rights.

Questions remain over the police response to the shooting. Uvalde police delayed entering the school to engage the shooter, with much of the scrutiny on the chief of police for the Uvalde Consolidate School District, Peter Arredondo. Arredondo is believed to have issued the order for officers not to engage with the shooter inside the school, allegedly believing that he had barricaded himself and was no longer a threat to students. Arredondo has also reportedly stopped cooperating with a state investigation into his response.

Monday saw the first of the many funerals for the victims of the shooting. Services are expected to continue into mid-June.

 

 

 

Clinton Campaign Lawyer Acquitted of Lying to the FBI

Lawyer for the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign Michael Sussmann was acquitted by a jury in federal court Tuesday, ending a two-week trial in which he was accused of lying to the FBI.

The indictment of Sussmann was part of John Durham’s investigation into the origin of the narrative of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative. The indictment accused Sussmann of lying to the FBI in 2016 when he told FBI General Counsel James Baker that he was not representing a client when discussing his allegation that the Trump campaign was working with Russia. Sussmann was working for the Clinton campaign at the time.

 

Markets Close Out Month of Losses with Modest Gains in Final Week

 Today marked the end of a wild month for stocks, and while major indices closed roughly flat from May 1 to My 31, this month saw wild fluctuations in stock prices and investors attempted to price in growing uncertainty as interest rates rise and threats of a recession loom.

The S&P 500 had sustained 7 consecutive weeks of losses prior to last week, the largest such streak since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) suffered an eight-week losing streak, the longest since 1923. These losses came as the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy in an attempt to rein in inflation. Central banks, like the Fed, pursue tighter monetary policy by raising interest rates, which reduce available credit, reducing money supply and reducing the size of the overall economy. In theory, this reduces the rate of price increases and should bring inflation to a stable, low level.

However, with the markets used to the easy money policies since the 2008 financial crash, a tight monetary policy brings uncertainty. Strained supply chains, sticky labor costs, and concerns of the availability of fuel and food have investors concerned about a possible recession and economic turmoil.

While the Russian invasion of Ukraine aggravated much of this turmoil, especially related to food supply given both country’s critical role in supplying food to the world, supply chains have come under enormous strain following the lifting of the coronavirus restrictions, which had reduced supply but also reduced demand. The removal of restrictions helped boost demand, especially given the amount of stimulus provided by governments throughout the pandemic, but supply has not caught up with the demand, creating an inability to fulfill consumer desires.

 

Emmanuel Macron Wins Reelection as French President

 

Credit: Nathanael Mergui 

French President Emmanuel Macron won reelection as president of France this past week, defeating his right-wing Eurosceptic rival Marine Le Pen in a rematch of the 2017 election. Macron led Le Pen 59% to 41%.

Macron and Le Pen had finished first and second respectively in the first round of the presidential election earlier this month, defeating a wide array of other rivals. The third-place finisher, Jean-Luc Melanchon, did not endorse either candidate, but encouraged his voters not to vote for Le Pen.

While Macron’s victory will prevent any marked change in France’s involvement in the European Union, Le Pen’s performance marked a highest level of support for her right-wing to far-right party in French presidential elections.

 

 

White House Reportedly Weighing Student Loan Debt Relief

President Joe Biden is reportedly weighing forgiving up to $10,000 of federal student loans. This comes as he struggles to regain footing among younger voters. Biden has previously resisted pressure to eliminate debt even while he extended repayment relief multiple times during his term.

Activists and politicians who have been advocating loan forgiveness, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), have pushed for Biden to forgive up to $50,000 in debt. The White House has so far ruled out that amount.

The administration is also considering limiting relief to borrowers below a certain income threshold.

 

Economy Contracts in Q1 as Fed Attempts to Rein in Inflation

The US economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 1.4% annualized in Q1, which fell far below the consensus view that the economy would actually grow around 1% at an annual rate for the quarter. The major driver of the decline was an increase in the trade deficit, with imports surging from Q4 2021, while exports dropped from the same period. Imports are subtracted in GDP calculations, while exports are added. Inventories also decreased in Q1 after a buildup of inventories in the previous quarter.

While an economic contraction is not an ideal scenario, a deeper look reveals some more encouraging metrics. Consumer spending rose in Q1, with private demand rising 3.7%. This occurred even in the midst of accelerating inflation brought on existing economic conditions as well as the economic turmoil caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial sanctions.

While the Federal Reserve is often reluctant to raise interest rates amid a slowing economy, the latest numbers are unlikely to halt the Fed from raising interest rates this year in an attempt to tamp down on rising prices. Financial markets have experienced volatility the past few weeks as they price in the expected increases, which, by raising the cost of borrowing money, will slow down the economy, in turn reducing price increases. Besides reducing inflation, the Fed will also attempt to avoid a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, though given the rates of inflation seen over the past year, this will remain a difficult balancing act.

 

Ketanji Brown Jackson Heads Towards Likely Confirmation

The Senate Judiciary Committee completed the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for US Appeals Court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson last week, with Jackson likely heading towards confirmation to become the first black woman on the Supreme Court given Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) announcement that he will support her nomination.

Jackson, who was nominated to succeed retiring Justice Stephen Breyer, was first installed on the US District Court for the District of Columbia in 2013 by President Obama and was elevated to the Appeals Court for the DC Circuit in 2021 by President Biden. Prior to her service on the federal bench, Jackson was vice chair of the US Sentencing Commission and had worked as a federal public defender.

Jackson’s ascension to the Supreme Court would likely not have a major effect on the ideological makeup of the court, as she, widely perceived as a liberal jurist, would be replacing Breyer, another liberal jurist. One possible shift, however, would be in the court’s approach to certain criminal justice issues. Breyer was often deferential to prosecutors and police, while Jackson’s record does not show such a deference.

 

Manchin Reportedly Working to Revive Spending Package

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has given signals that he may be willing to negotiate on a slimmed down version of the previous Build Back Better bill, which he effectively killed in December 2021 after he announced his opposition to it on Fox News Sunday. This bill would likely focus on controlling drug prices, energy policy, and tax increases.

Any legislation he puts forth will still need the support of the 49 other Democratic senators (barring any GOP defections), including fellow moderate Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona. Sinema has been in the past been hesitant to support some of the tax increases proposed last year.

Russia's War in Ukraine Continues

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completed its first month, and while President Vladimir Putin’s forces have failed to take Ukraine’s capital Kyiv or its second largest city Kharkiv, Russian forces have taken large areas of Ukraine's southeast. Russia so far has captured few large cities and has encountered fierce resistance throughout the country.

Meanwhile, sanctions from Western countries continue to affect Russia’s economy, preventing it from easily selling its exports, including oil and food.

The current state of the war is much different from the consensus just before the war started, that the Russian military would be able to relatively quickly topple the Ukrainian government and control large swaths of territory. Any hope for a Ukrainian victory would likely lie in a long-term insurgency similar to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion in the 1980s. Rather, the strong Ukrainian resistance has kept the government in power and prevented the seizure of many large cities, even though Russia has managed to control territory along the border and in the east and south of the country.

Putin’s actions in Ukraine have been characterized as war crimes given his military’s targeting of civilian neighborhoods. Russia’s attacks on civilian neighborhoods represent a dark turn in the conflict as following their failure to occupy most of Ukraine's major cities.

Russia last week announced they will shift focus to the eastern front, where Russia has been helping separatists since 2014 fight to remove Ukrainian control. Western nations have responded incredulously to the statement, skeptical of whether Russia will actually shift focus or will try a new offensive to capture Kyiv and other major cities.

 

Biden Struggles to Gain Political Footing Ahead of Midterms

President Joe Biden’s approval continues to lag as several domestic and foreign policy challenges cast a shadow over his presidency.

While coronavirus cases have been dropping nationwide, inflation remains a top issue among voters ahead of the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Biden’s approval rating stands at 40.7%, according to the 538 polling aggregate, around the same level as former President Donald Trump’s average rating when he was president.

The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine also poses a challenge for the administration. Biden faces pressure from both those arguing for a more interventionist stance as well as those arguing for a more hands-off approach.

A possible positive development for the president is his nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court caused by the retirement of Stephen Breyer. While Jackson’s ascension of the court will not cause any substantial change in the ideological makeup of the court, Democrats hope the first black woman on the Supreme Court will excite their base.

 

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Continues as Western Countries Respond with Sanctions, Aid

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his country’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine last week, capping months of speculation over whether Russia would invade Ukraine, and if so, to what extent. The invasion is a large-scale manuever, with Russian troops advancing into Ukraine along its borders with Russia and Belarus, a key Russian ally.

The first days of the invasion have seen Russia take over sections of the country, though Russia has failed to establish air superiority over the country’s air space even after strikes aimed to take out Ukraine's air defenses on the first day. No major cities have been taken yet, though both sides have engaged in heavy fighting in the capital and largest city Kiev as well as Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv. Both cities are close to the borders of Belarus and Russia respectively and are vulnerable to Russian attacks. 

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has vowed to remain in Kiev while fighting for control of the capital continues. He has posted videos on social media in attempts to boost morale at home as well as garner support from international audiences.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to stage a coup against the Zelensky government, calling them ‘drug addicts’ and ‘neo-Nazis,’ and claimed that reaching a peace between Russia and a replacement government will be easier. Such a peace would likely entail Russian suzerainty over Ukraine and the possible cession of lands in the eastern part of Ukraine.

While the consensus has been that Ukraine will eventually fall to Russia should Russia use the full force of its conventional forces to take over the country, some observers have remarked positively on the strength of the Ukrainian resistance to the invasion, which has prevented the capture of any major cities thus far and prevented the capture of a critical airfield near Kiev.

Western countries have been providing Ukraine with military aid and intelligence both prior to and during the Russian invasion. The US and European Union have announced additional sanctions against Russia, as well as removing certain Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system, which allows international financial transactions to occur.

Russian Troops Loom on Ukrainian Border as Invasion Threat Continues

As thousands of Russian troops remain stationed threateningly close to Ukraine’s border, Western countries have tried to convince Russia to back off its threats of moving troops into the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin has counteroffered that NATO refuse any new members, a non-starter for the alliance.

NATO leaders are making trips to Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, including the prime ministers of the UK, the Netherlands, and Poland. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who himself has clashed with many Western leaders during his time in power, will also visit Kiev.

Germany, the largest economy in NATO after the US, has so far been tepid in its support of Ukraine, refraining from sending weapons while other NATO countries have done so. Germany is currently working with Russia to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany. Some in the US government have threatened sanctions over the pipeline, though such sanctions have been opposed, most notably by President Joe Biden, over concerns such measures could weaken the relationship between the US and Germany.

Russia currently is supporting an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russian separatists are trying to break away from the government in Kiev. Russia also controls the Crimean Peninsula, considered by most countries as still part of Ukraine.

Russia fears Ukraine falling further into the West’s orbit as popular opinion in Ukraine has turned strongly against Russia since the 2014 revolution which toppled pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich and prompted Russia to take over Crimea.

 

Nor'easter Dumps Massive Amounts of Snow over the Weekend

Cities across the Northeast are cleaning up after a strong nor’easter tore through the region this weekend, dumping massive amounts of snow and bringing freezing temperatures.

Boston experienced 23.6 inches of snow in one day, tying a record set in 2003.

Authorities had urged residents to stay off the roads and away from any downed powerlines.

 

President Biden’s Approval Rating Suffers Amid Challenges

President Joe Biden had a politically rough first month of 2022, with his polling numbers falling to the lowest point of his year-old presidency.

According to the 538 polling aggregate, Biden has 41.6% approval rating among registered and likely voters, with 53.3% disapproving. Most polls show strong majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. His approval of handling of the coronavirus pandemic, once a strong point, has suffered, with one recent poll finding a slight net approval, 50-49%.

His party is also facing challenges ahead of the midterm elections. Currently, Republicans lead Democrats by 4.1 points in the congressional generic ballot RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.

While President Biden has time before November to recover his standing, he will need to overcome several challenges to make it happen. Inflation, which rose to the highest level in four decades, continues to cause economic hardship for millions of Americans. The threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine will also test the president’s diplomatic and foreign policy skills in the coming months.

 

Iconic Actress Betty White Dies at 99

Betty White, who set the record for the longest television career in history, spanning eight decades, died Friday at the age of 99.

White, born on January 17, 1922, in Oak Park, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. Her first media appearance was a guest call to a radio show in 1930. She began modeling and acting after graduating high school, but she put her career on hold to serve in the American Women’s Voluntary Services during World War II.

After the war, she began appearing on television, where she would be a regular fixture for decades. Notably, in 1954, when The Betty White Show received criticism for the inclusion of black tap dance performer Arthur Duncan, White defended his appearance on the show and even expanded his role.

White was the last surviving main cast member of two notable shows, The Mary Tyler Moore Show and The Golden Girls. She was also the oldest main cast member of both shows, with all her younger castmates predeceasing her.

White would have celebrated her 100th birthday on January 17. A cinema event celebrating her birthday and documenting her career had been planned to mark the occasion; the filmmaker who created the documentary confirmed that it will still be shown in theaters on the 17th.

 

Notable People We Lost this Month

Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada was a force in American politics for decades, serving as Democratic Senate leader from 2005 to 2015, eight of those years as Senate Majority Leader. While he faced criticism for his tactics and rhetoric during his tenure, Reid was successful in pushing through the Senate much of President Obama’s agenda in 2009 and 2010, including his health care package and the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory legislation.

NFL Coach and Commentator John Madden

John Madden was known for his near decade-long tenure as head coach of the Oakland Raiders and leading the team to victory in Superbowl XI. He later became a NFL commentator, and he was commemorated with popular NFL Madden video game series.

Grichka Bogdanoff

Grichka, along with his twin brother Igor, were known for their appearances in French science television shows in the 1970s and 1980s. The brothers courted controversy when they published scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals which critics say were non-sensical and had no scientific value, known as the Bogdanoff Affair.

The Bogdanoff brothers are often featured in internet memes, usually relating to cryptocurrency, in which they are portrayed as omnipotent market manipulators who pump and dump financial assets, often to comedic effect.

 

Soviet Union's End: Thirty Years Later

On December 25, 1991, Mikhail Gorbahev resigned as general secretary of the Communist Party. For Western countries, this occurred on Christmas day, though it was a much more typical day in the largely Orthodox Soviet Union, as Orthodox Christians observe Christmas in January. 

In Gorbachev's speech, he said, "I hereby discontinue my activities at the post of President of the USSR", and declared an end to the Cold War, which had subsumed geopolitics for over over four decades. His powers were then transferred to Russian president, Boris Yelstin. 

After his speech, the Soviet flag was lowered over the Kremlin, and the Russian flag was raised. The next day, upper chamber of the Soviet legislature formally voted to end the Soviet Union. 

Watch Gorbahev's speech translated to English here:

Pearl Harbor 80 Years Later

Today marks the 80th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, which led to United States' entry into World War II.

Several survivors of the attack, many of whom are 100 or over, visited the site today to observe the memorials for those lost on that day.

Bob Dole, Former Republican Presidential Candidate and Elder Statesman, Dies at 98

Bob Dole, the former US senator from Kansas who was the Republican presidential candidate in the 1996 election, died Sunday at 98. Dole had been battling lung cancer, and was taking immunotherapy to treat the disease.

Dole was born on July 22, 1923 in Russell, Kansas. He enrolled in the University of Kansas, where he played several sports including basketball and track, but left in 1942 to fight in World War II, where he became an officer in the US Army. He was severely injured in combat in Italy, and while he never regained use of his right arm, he managed to recover the use most of the rest of his body.

Dole was elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1950, and two years later became the county attorney of Russell County, a position in which he served for 8 years. He ran for the US House of Representatives in 1960 for Kansas's 6th Congressional District, and after he was elected, he served in the chamber for 8 years. During that time, he supported several notable civil rights bills, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Dole ran for and won a seat in the US Senate in 1968, and he served in the chamber until 1996. Dole became Senate Majority Leader in 1985, became Senate Minority Leader two years later when the GOP lost the chamber in the 1986 elections, and regained the Majority Leader post when Republican recaptured Congress in 1994. He also served as chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) from 1971 to 1973. 

Dole was selected as Gerald Ford's running mate in the 1976 presidential election, replacing Nelson Rockefeller, who was seen as too moderate for many in the party. His addition to Ford's ticket was an attempt to keep conservative delegates from supporting Ronald Reagan's presidential candidacy at the 1976 convention, the last contested presidential election to date. While the Ford-Dole ticket emerged victorious at the convention, it ultimately lost to the Carter-Mondale ticket that year.

During his time in Congress, he created relationships and friendships across the aisle that helped achieve the passage of several pieces of legislation, including the American with Disabilities Act and legislation dealing with social security and food assistance.

Dole ran for president in 1980 and 1988, losing in the primaries to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush respectively. The third time proved the charm in 1996, when he won the Republican primary and faced off against incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton. He resigned from the Senate to focus on his campaign, which ended unsuccessfully that November when Clinton managed to win another term. Republicans did manage to keep both chambers of Congress that year.

Dole became an elder statesman in the Republican Party in his post-elected career. He also appeared in several television advertisements, including for Pepsi and Viagra (he was open about his struggles with erectile disfunction and aimed to remove the stigma of the condition).

Dole notably was the only former Republican presidential nominee to support Donald Trump after he won the Republican primary in the 2016 election. Dole reiterated his support for Trump in the 2020 election and defended him from what he saw as unfair treatment of Trump from the Commission on Presidential Debates during the debates with eventual election winner Joe Biden. 

While Dole referred to himself as a "Trumper" following the 2020 election and expressed his disappointment in Trump's loss, he also said he was "Trumped out" and criticized Trump's claims of election fraud, saying that there was no evidence for it.

Dole had spoken well of Biden following his election victory, calling him "a great, kind, upstanding, decent person," though he was critical of what he perceived as Biden leaning too far left and the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Other than his political statements, Dole managed to keep an active life until the end, even in face of his cancer diagnosis, visiting the Dole Institute frequently at the University of Kansas and even visiting all of Kansas's 105 counties.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for the flags at the Capitol to be set to half-mast in honor of Dole. Other politicians from across the aisle have also issued statements of remembrance following the announcement of his death, highlighting his commitment to work across the aisle and his bravery in his military service.

Biden’s Domestic Agenda Makes Progress While His Approval Lags

Several pieces of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda moved forward in Congress this month. As part of an agreement with House progressives, more moderate members of the House Democratic caucus promised to vote for Biden’s larger social spending package if progressives backed the infrastructure bill. Both sides adhered to the agreement, and the House passed the House after it was passed by the Senate earlier this year. Biden has since signed the bill into law. The House also passed the social spending package, now titled the ‘Build Back Better Act,’ where it now faces an uncertain future in the Senate.

While Democratic leadership has been aiming to pass the package by Christmas, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has frequently criticized the bill’s cost and scope, refused Monday to commit to voting on the bill by the end of the year.

Democrats hope that the passage of both bills will increase Biden’s approval ratings, which have declined over the past several months. Biden experienced no boost after the passage of the infrastructure bill earlier this month, and while some recent polls have shown some slight improvement to his net approval rating, he remains underwater in the RealClearPolitics and 538 polling aggregates.

This comes as Republicans have grown increasingly bullish on their chances to take over Congress after the 2022 midterm elections. Recent polling has shown the GOP with a lead over Democrats in the generic congressional ballot polls, an indicator of how a party will perform overall in the general election nationwide.

 

Omicron Variant of Coronavirus Identified

A new variant of the coronavirus, termed the ‘Omicron’ variant, has been identified in southern Africa and has already sparked new travel bans and restrictions across the world. The variant has already been identified in cases in Europe, and may be responsible for an uptick in cases in southern Africa.

The variant is a highly mutated form of the coronavirus which causes COVID-19, and is reported to be more contagious. Researchers are still assessing its mortality rate.

Whether the existing coronavirus vaccine offerings are effective against this new variant remain unknown, though health officials still encourage vaccinations and booster shots for those eligible.

The variant emerges as unrest grows in several countries over restrictions officials say are needed to end the pandemic. In the Netherlands, crowds fought with police after new restrictions were announced. In Italy and Austria, large protests took place over restrictions on unvaccinated individuals.

 

Ghislaine Maxwell Federal Trial Begins in New York

The trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite accused of sex trafficking teenage girls along Jeffrey Epstein, begun in New York Monday. Her defense team aims to cast her as a pawn in Epstein’s sordid affairs, while prosecutors aim to demonstrate that Maxwell was a ringleader in the operation.

Epstein, who died in federal custody in 2019 while awaiting trial, was known for his relationships with powerful individuals, including Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, and Donald Trump (before he became president). All men have denied any wrongdoing.

Virginia Governor’s Race Nears End as Poll Shows Close Race

The Virginia gubernatorial election this Tuesday is down to the wire as Democrats try to keep a seat that they have held for eight years. Republican candidate, businessman and political newcomer Glenn Youngkin, is statistically tied with former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, who held the governorship from 2014 to 2018.

McAuliffe has tried to tie Youngkin to former President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in the state and lost to Biden by 10 points in 2020. While Youngkin has not campaigned with Trump and does not emphasize him on the campaign trial, he has spoken positively of Trump and the former president has endorsed him.

Youngkin has made education a large focus of his campaign, favoring increased parental involvement and criticizing Critical Race Theory. McAuliffe has criticized Youngkin and other Republicans’ focus on Critical Race Theory, arguing it is not taught in schools and should not be a factor in the race.

If Republicans pick up the governorship Tuesday, it could be a worrisome sign for Democrats going into the 2022 midterms. A Democratic win could lead to increased confidence for the party in the face of President Biden's lower approval ratings.

 

Inflation Continues as Government Aims to Control Supply Chain Issues

Inflation, largely caused by global supply chain issues, has continued to cause pain for consumers both in the US and across the globe. In the US, prices rose at annual rate of 5.4% in September, the fifth straight month of inflation over 5%. In Germany, inflation hit a three-decade high, largely fueled by rising energy prices.

This inflation, which was widely characterized as transitory and temporary earlier this year, now appears more permanent as supply chain issues remain difficult to resolve. Labor shortages, combined with pent-up demand from the pandemic, are some of the largest contributors to this.

The most visible manifestation of the supply chain issues are the dozens of container ships sitting off the coast of California to drop off their loads at ports. While the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have promised to transition to 24-hour workdays, it would take months for the backlog of goods to be processed.

Adding to this is the shortage of truck drivers within the US to move the goods from the coasts throughout the country. According to the American Trucking Association, around 80,000 truckers are missing from America’s highways, and they claim the problem will grow worse of the coming decade. Several factors have been attributed to this shortage, including dissatisfaction over pay and working hours, legal and regulatory restrictions, and resistance of mandatory vaccinations and testing.

Other factors contributing to the inflation are the large amount of monetary stimulus from central banks during the pandemic, leading to calls to raise interest rates to reduce the money supply and reduce inflation. Concerns over negatively affecting economic have made economic policymakers wary of taking this step.