Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 

Coronavirus Cases Spike Across the US, World

Worldwide coronavirus cases reached 10 million this month as governments struggle to contain the spread of the deadly virus. The resulting infections have led to at least confirmed 500,000 deaths.

In the United States, the majority of states have reported a rising number of cases, with the only region spared from the uptick being the Northeast, which was most affected when the outbreak started in March and April. Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen a large jump in cases, prompting state and local leaders to reinstitute certain control measures, such as closing bars, mandating mask wearing, and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Around one quarter of confirmed deaths worldwide have occurred in the United States, whose death toll currently stands at around 125,000. The worldwide number of deaths is likely higher than 500,000 because of underreporting and the suspiciously low numbers reported by the Chinese government, especially given China’s role as the epicenter of the outbreak.

Vice President Mike Pence has announced support for wearing masks in a recent interview with CBS News, though President Donald Trump himself has been ambivalent about encouraging masks and has not encouraged mask wearing mandates. Wearing surgical and cloth masks can reduce the spread of the virus to others if the wearer is sick, but has not been shown to offer significant protection to the wearer. The US government has encouraged protective N95 standard masks to be used only by health care professionals and other emergency responders. Notably, US health officials discouraged the purchase of N95 masks by individuals at the beginning of the outbreak, misrepresenting their effectiveness to the public, in an attempt to preserve them for health care workers.

Social Unrest Continues Across the US

The death of George Floyd in Minneapolis at the hands of four police officers last month led to social friction, and while the most violent undercurrent has ebbed for now, it has not fully abated. Protestors condemning the treatment of black Americans by police as well as society at-large have been largely peaceful, though some in the movement have insisted on more forceful measures, such as toppling statues, spray painting monuments, and occupying public spaces. The most notable of the last is the Seattle Capital Hill Occupied Protest (CHOP), which has resisted attempts to disperse as its occupants continue to control several city blocks.

Protests, Riots Continue After Death of George Floyd

The death of a black man, George Floyd, at the hands of a white police officer, Derek Chauvin, in Minneapolis this past week has led to outrage across ideological, racial, and economic lines. Chauvin had put his knee on Floyd’s neck during an arrest in which Floyd allegedly paid with a counterfeit bill at a store. Video shows Floyd not resisting when initially arrested, and it is unclear how and why he was subdued and when Chauvin put his knee on Floyd’s neck. Floyd said “I can’t breathe” during the incident in which Chauvin had his knee on Floyd’s neck for just under nine minutes. Two other police were also holding Floyd down while Chauvin was kneeling on Floyd’s neck. The four police who were involved in the arrest have been fired and Chauvin has been charged with third-degree murder and manslaughter.

Almost immediately demonstrators protested in Minneapolis, both about Floyd’s death and police conduct and brutality in the US in general. These demonstrations quickly spread to other major US cities, and many demonstrations have evolved in violent incidents as looters and rioters have joined them. Many retail establishments have been burned, as well as a police precinct in Minneapolis. Gunfire has been exchanged in several cities, including Minneapolis, Louisville, and Oakland (here a security officer was murdered).

In St. Louis, a man was dragged to death by a FedEx truck after looters attempted to hijack the truck and allegedly brandished guns at the driver.

The National Guard has been called to help quell the protests in several cities, including in Minneapolis, though their deployment has been limited in an attempt to prevent escalation. Police tactics to quell the demonstrations and riots have also been criticized.

Re-openings Continue as Coronavirus Continues to Strike

States across the US have begun or continued their efforts to re-open their economies while the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect thousands across the country and around the world. Politicians and health officials have cited a declining trend in new cases and the reduced threat of hospital overcrowding in allowing certain businesses to re-open, often at a reduced capacity. For example, restaurants in Texas were initially allowed to re-open at 25% capacity, with further increases scheduled.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have increased in Latin America, believed to be the next hotspot for the pandemic. Brazil’s dramatic increase has led US President Donald Trump to block entrance of those from Brazil into the US. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been criticized for not taking aggressive enough measures to fight the virus, as has Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Health officials in San Diego have said that nearly half of the new cases of the virus are related to recent border crossings, which have nominally been closed to regular visitors and only open to business.

America Returns to Space

Amid the coronavirus pandemic and the unrest related to the death of George Floyd, the US has something to celebrate. For the first time since 2011, a US spacecraft has carried Americans into space, and for the first time a private corporation, SpaceX, was responsible for the development of a manned spacecraft.

The spacecraft, a Crew Dragon, lifted off on Friday. The first attempt to launch was canceled on May 27 because of bad weather related to Tropical Storm Bertha. While thunderstorms were in some neighboring areas to the launch site on Friday, they were not close enough to cause the launch to be scrubbed.

Israeli Political Crisis Comes to an End For Now

After three elections within the past year, Israel is set to have a permanent government for the first time since 2019.

In all three elections, neither the left wing nor the right-wing coalitions were able to gather a majority of legislators, with neither bloc willing to form an alliance with the Joint List, a group of Arab-interest parties. In addition, Avigdor Lieberman, who leads a secularist right-wing party refused to join incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc over a dispute on requiring Orthodox Jews to perform military service.

As part of an agreement, Netanyahu will serve as prime minister until October 2021, when his center-left rival-turned-partner Benny Gantz will take over.

General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.

Reopenings Slowly Begin as Coronavirus Pandemic Continues

Some states will begin efforts to reopen more portions of their economy after over a month of widespread lockdowns and stay at home orders aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes the disease COVID-19.

Earlier this month, a coalition of northeastern US governors formed in an effort to coordinate efforts to allow certain businesses to reopen. The Northeast has been hit especially hard by the pandemic, with New York and New Jersey composing the most active hotspot for new infections, and Massachusetts recently emerging as a center of new cases. Other hotspots include Michigan (especially the Detroit metropolitan area) as well as Louisiana.

Texas is the largest state so far to announce large-scale reopening efforts. For example, on Friday restaurants will be allowed to serve at 25% seating capacity, with counties with less than five confirmed cases (mostly rural and low population) will be allowed to reopen at 50% capacity. Over time the capacity allowance will be increased if the number of infections remains stable or decreases. While Texas has been spared the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, concerns over new infections linger, with Lamar County (home of Paris, Texas) reporting a stark increase in infections just before reopening efforts. Bars and movie theaters will continue to be closed.

Around the world, countries continue to face the worst public health crisis many of them have faced since the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, himself having been infected by the virus, announced that the UK was ‘past the peak’ in infection cases.

Trump Approval Up, Biden Campaign Sidelined

President Trump’s approval rating has risen to its highest level since the start of his presidency. While it is still underwater, his favorable-unfavorable margin has shrunk to around –4, according to an aggregation by FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden has largely remained on the sidelines since his string of primary victories earlier this month, effectively knocking out his sole challenger for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. He had promised he would give regular updates and campaign speeches through videos produced at his home, though his shaky performance in these and in media interviews has discouraged further campaign media productions for now.

Trump has faced criticism for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, with some saying the president’s response to the threat was delayed. Trump counters that the US response has been aggressive and that widespread testing has helped reduce the spread.

Trump’s approval for handling the coronavirus is positive, though lower than that of state and government responses.

Coronavirus Pandemic Infects the World

The United States, according to official numbers, leads the world in coronavirus disease (officially named COVID-19) cases at over 186,000 confirmed infections. China, the origin country of the outbreak, reports just under 82,000 cases, though given the country’s central role in the virus’s original spread and subsequent transmission as well as its much larger population, that number likely significantly underestimates the number of infected.

Countries with a higher per capita rate of infection than the US include Spain and Italy, which also have had higher mortality rates (~10%). The US, in contrast, has had a mortality rate of around 2%. The true mortality rate of those infected is likely lower than these reported numbers, as it only takes into account confirmed cases. Many coronavirus cases are asymptomatic or only show mild symptoms.

Most states in the US have issued “stay-at-home” orders, which only allow limited travel to essential work functions or for shopping. The New York metropolitan area has been especially hit hard, with local morgues running out of room for the dead and refrigerated truck being brought into service as temporary morgues.

China has begun to lift restrictions on Wuhan, the city in which the virus originated (likely at a wet market in which live animals and meat are sold). The country has come under international criticism for its handling of the disease as its government worked to silence the voices of those raising concerns of the virus when it first appeared late last year. The most visible whistleblower, Li Wenliang, died after raising the alarm on the virus. The Chinese government had targeted Li in December 2019, accusing him of “spreading rumors.”

Sanders Leads Nationally as Biden Triumphs in South Carolina

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has captured frontrunner status in the Democratic race, though it may not be enough to win enough delegates before the convention in Milwaukee in a few months.

That may be even more likely after today’s vote, as former Vice President Joe Biden scored a strong victory in the South Carolina primary Saturday. Long touted as his firewall, Biden seemed to be danger just last week of losing the primary to a surging Sanders. Biden, with around 90% of the precincts in, has just under 50% of the vote, with second-place Sanders just under 20%.

Even with Biden’s South Carolina victory and the possibility of momentum heading into Super Tuesday this week, Sanders holds a healthy lead on national polling, which was Biden’s claim just last month. According to the RealClearPolitics poll aggregator, Sanders leads Biden 29.6% to 18.8%, with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg coming in third with 16.4%. Bloomberg, who will only be on state ballots starting on Super Tuesday, surged in polling this past month as he spent hundreds of millions of dollars on television and online advertisements. His momentum has slowed, however, amid a poor first debate performance and a somewhat resurgent Biden, whose disastrous Iowa and New Hampshire results had some wondering if he would leave the race.

While Sanders maintains the lead in national polling and in certain Super Tuesday states, there is a strong chance neither he or any other candidate will reach a majority of delegates on the first ballot. If that happens, delegates can choose who to be their nominee at the convention, possibly setting up a protracted and heated battle to face Trump in November.

Riots in India Kill 42 So Far

Riots have broken out in the city of Delhi as opponents and supporters of a controversial citizenship law passed by the Indian Parliament clashed on the streets.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) creates a path for citizenship for certain illegal immigrants but notably excludes Muslims from those eligible. The riots in North East Delhi arose after a local politician vowed to clear the streets of protestors opposing the law, most of whom are Muslim. Supporters of the law, mostly Hindu, took to the streets in an attempt to stop the demonstrations of the opponents. At least 600 have been arrested so far.

Coronavirus Causes Worry as Markets React

The coronavirus outbreak, linked to the virus now-named COVID-19, has sickened nearly 90,000 worldwide, with most infections occurring in China, the virus’s origin point, though rapidly spreading across the globe, including major outbreaks in Iran and Italy.

The virus, which causes a respiratory disease similar to influenza, spreads through respiratory droplets emitted from the body during sneezing and coughing. Cases can develop into pneumonia and possibly turn fatal. The fatality rate for the disease is estimated at 1-3%.

The prospect of a pandemic, in which the disease infects a significant population in most areas of the world, has sent shockwaves through the global markets, with many indices having their worst week since the financial crisis in 2008. The S&P 500 and the DJIA both fell around 10% this past week, with the DJIA shedding 3500 points.

In addition, concerns over the availability of health supplies, such as face masks, have surfaced as many of these products are made in China, specifically in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak.