Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Coronavirus Cases Surge as US, Europe Face Likely Second Wave

The coronavirus pandemic has again shifted into another phase of heightened infection rates, with the United States reporting record case numbers, with Wednesday seeing over 80,000 new reported infections. While the US has remained the country with the most cases throughout most of the pandemic, European countries are experiencing what is being described as the ‘second wave’ of the epidemic, leading to a new series of restrictions and lockdowns. French President Emmanuel Marcon has announced a new one-month lockdown, and Germany’s federal and state governments have closed bars, restaurants, and most forms of public entertainment.

 

Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed to Supreme Court

Barrett, picture here in 2018,
after her elevation to the Seventh
Court of Appeals

Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the Seventh Court of Appeals was confirmed Monday on a nearly party-line vote, with all Democrats voting against confirmation and all Republicans voting for it except for Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is locked in a close reelection battle. 

Barrett, who was nominated last month to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg after her death from pancreatic cancer, is widely viewed as a judicial conservative and has repeatedly affirmed her belief in  originalist jurisprudence that seeks to interpret laws as they were originally written. Her elevation to the high court is expected to shift the court to the right as she replaces the liberal Ginsburg and removes Chief Justice John Roberts, a moderate conservative, as the swing vote.

 

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Trump Nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Seat

 The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, whose history of overcoming sexism in her career and her liberal jurisprudence during her 27 years on the Supreme Court made her a towering figure in the American legal community, threw another wrench in the American political world. Ginsburg, who died at 87 on September 18, had faced health challenges for several years before she succumbed to pancreatic cancer.

Trump nominated on Saturday federal Appeals Court Judge and legal scholar Amy Coney Barrett to fill her seat. In her acceptance speech for the nomination, Barrett cited Antonin Scalia, noted for his conservative views and originalist jurisprudence, as her greatest influence and has said that her views on constitutional interpretation are the same as his. If Barrett is confirmed, her presence on the court is expected to turn the court more to the right, with conservative-leaning justices holding a 6-3 majority.

Democrats have called for the nomination of a successor to be postponed until after the next president is elected, citing Republicans refusing to consider Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, after the death of Antonin Scalia.

 

Belarus Faces Continued Unrest as Lukashenko Holds Tightly onto Power

Belarusians who have grown tired of Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule continue to demonstrate in the streets as the 66-year old president continues to hold on to power after a disputed election result this month. Official tallies from the government claim he earned over 80% of the vote, while opposition leaders say the result was rigged in his favor, claims which the US, the UK, and the EU support.

Lukashenko has been called “Europe’s last dictator” and has led the country since 1994. While having difficulties in their relationship in the past, Lukashenko is considered a geopolitical ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Coronavirus Cases Trending Down in US, Reemerge in Other Countries

Global coronavirus cases have topped 25 million worldwide as countries around the world struggle to contain the outbreak which began late last year in Hubei Province, China, with worldwide deaths currently numbered at 843,000. France and Spain are among the countries to report a resurgence in their COVID-19 numbers, with the latter being one of the centers of the outbreak when it began its worldwide spread in early 2020.

The United States, the worldwide leader in coronavirus cases and deaths, has seen some encouraging signs as the summer nears its end. New York and New Jersey continue to have low numbers of cases and deaths after suffering at the start of the pandemic in the US, and the later hotspots of Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen their case and death numbers drop off drastically since their peak in July. However, other areas of the country continue to suffer outbreaks, often linked to mass gatherings such as parties. Colleges and universities have clamped down on such gatherings, with some deciding to cancel in-person classes after attempting to reopen for the semester.

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude

Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.

Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.

Texas, Florida, California Emerge as Coronavirus Hotspots

Another crop of states has emerged as the next coronavirus hotspots in the United States, with Texas, Florida, and California among those seeing a large increase in COVID-19 cases and related deaths.

The previous hotspots, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, have not seen large jumps since the major outbreak at the pandemic’s onset in the US in March and April. Fortunately none of the states currently experiencing a large uptick in cases have seen the death tolls seen in the worst of the crisis in New York and New Jersey, but a sharp increase of deaths has occurred and expected to continue.

Total case numbers in California stand at 493,588, in Florida 470,386, in Texas 420,946, and in New York 415,014. The nationwide lethality rate average is 3.2%, ranging as high as 8.7% in New York to 0.6% in Alaska.

As for the economy, the US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, a massive decline. Unemployment claims also jumped in the past week, showing that the job market continues to be weak as businesses struggle with restrictions and declining customer purchases.

Meanwhile coronavirus cases have risen in other countries in the past few weeks. Spain, one of the early centers of the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, has seen a sharp uptick in cases, which some have blamed on increased travel and beach parties. Brazil, the country with the second most cases and deaths, has also struggled to control the virus. Brazil currently has had just under 2.7 million cases, compared to the US’s 4.7 million, or 12,536 cases per million versus 14,120 cases per million respectively.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point.