European Politics Shaken Up with Elections, Brexit Drama

Establishment center-right and center-left parties lost support in the European Parliament elections last week. While the two blocs still make up 48.2% of the seats, they lost their majority in the body for the first time since its inception. Liberal parties and non-establishment Greens and populist Eurosceptic parties also saw gains.

Focusing on one country, in the United Kingdom, these elections were not even expected to happen just a few months ago. The country, which voted to leave the EU in June 2016, has stalled in its progress to accomplish that goal, with disagreements arising over the terms of the trade deal with the EU after it leaves the bloc as well over its border with Ireland.

The party with the greatest vote share in the UK was the newly-formed Brexit Party, created by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, formerly of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). While the Brexit Party just under 31% the vote, two parties that favor staying in the EU and even having a second referendum on the question, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, saw a combined 31.4% of the vote. These results point to a strongly polarized electorate. The two longtime establishment parties, the Conservatives and Labor, gathered 13.6% and 8.8% respectively.

British Prime Minister Theresa May announced she will resign following the poor result of her Conservative Party which will only walk away with four seats. May will formally leave office once her successor is determined by Conservative voters.

Biden Enters Democratic Presidential Race on Top

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced last Thursday his entry into the crowded field for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Biden currently faces at least 20 other major candidates, as well as some others who may join the race, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Biden currently tops the field in polling, leading second place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders by 13.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. No other candidates currently break double digits, though some, like South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have seen the poll numbers rise over the past month, with Buttigieg starting near zero when he announced to now around 8.4%. Some, such as Texas Sen. Beto O’Rourke, have seen declines, with O’Rourke now polling around 5.6%, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

With the nearest electoral contest not until the start of 2020, polls are bound to change. However, the large polling lead that Biden currently has likely indicates a strong early advantage over other contestants, and is higher than Jeb Bush’s polling lead in the early Republican primary polls in 2016 (Bush eventually only won less than 1% of the vote after withdrawing in February 2016).

Sanders’s high poll numbers may also be an indication of winning potential, as he has kept a large share of his support from 2016, even with other candidates this cycle echoing his policies. If he manages to maintain this support and add to it when other progressive challengers inevitably drop out, his path to the nomination may become clearer.

Democratic Race Heats Up as Biden Faces First Allegation

The Democratic race for president has become more competitive than before with well over a dozen major entrants into the race, with former and current US senators governors, representatives, mayors, and executive officials in the race, with even more expected to enter in the coming weeks. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has not formally announced his entry into the race but is widely expected to do so, leads nationwide polling, usually getting around 30% of the vote.

Biden’s fortune may have turned over the weekend, however, as a former Nevada state legislator accused him of unwanted kissing and fondling when she was running for lieutenant governor in 2014. Biden has denied the allegation, saying he considers himself to have never behaved inappropriately with women in the past. His past interactions with women, however, may return to haunt him, with many observers pointing out his proclivity for touching women’s and shoulders and moving his head close to theirs, many of these instances captured on videos and in photographs.

The first primaries and caucuses are still almost a year away. The Republicans are not expected to have a competitive primary, with incumbent Donald Trump a prohibitive favorite against any primary challenger.

Democratic Takeover of House will Cause Trump Problems, Senate Remains GOP

Democrats took forty seats in the House of Representatives this November, which will give them party a majority of seats in the chamber for the first times since 2011. Republicans, however, managed to increase their majority in the Senate by two seats, picking up four seats by defeating incumbent Democrats in states President Trump won in 2016 and losing two seats, one in Arizona and one in Nevada. Democrats will have 235 seats in the House to Republican's 200 when the new Congress begins January 3, while Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

This will cause some new issues for Trump and his party. With the Republicans now lacking full control of Congress, pushing through their favored legislation will become far more difficult. In addition, House Democrats have promised to launch a series of investigations into Trump, which could include searches into the extent of his contacts with Russian nationals, his handling of the firing of then-FBI Director James Comey in 2017, and allegations into whether Trump has personally enriched himself through his office.

Even with this, Republicans have maintained considerable power through expanding their Senate majority. Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have made confirming Trump’s judicial nominees to federal courts a priority. With two more members in the next Congress, pushing through Trump’s picks will likely become less laborious for the GOP, which successfully fought to confirm now Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the court this year. 

Senate leadership will remain in the next Congress, with the exception of Sen. John Thune (R-SD) taking over for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as Senate majority whip. The Republican House leader will be Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), while Democrats have yet to choose the speaker, but it is believed former Speaker and current House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has the best chance.