GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

Democratic Fortunes Improve After Recent Victories

 Facing the prospect of significant losses in the November midterm elections, Democrats’ fortunes may have improved if recent election results are any indication. Along with an increase in President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, Democrats have expressed more confidence that they will keep the Senate majority and possibly keep their House majority.

The most notable recent indication the Republicans may not have a lock on Congressional control after the midterms are the results of the special US House election in New York. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro, 51.1% to 48.7%, in the 19th congressional district, slightly overperforming Biden’s performance in 2020. In the New York’s 23rd, Republican Joe Sempolinski won 6.5 percentage points, underperforming Trump’s 11-point victory in 2020.

In Kansas, voters rejected by a double-digit margin to allow the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion in the state.

Biden’s approval ratings have also improved in recent weeks, though they still remain negative.

 

Manchin and Schumer Announce Reconciliation Deal

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to revive a slimmed down version of the ‘Build Back Better Act’ that Manchin had rejected in December 2021. Perhaps most surprisingly, the revived deal includes climate change expenditures and tax increases that Manchin had claimed he had ruled out earlier this month following months of negotiations between him and Schumer. Any revised deal had been expected only to include an extension of Obamacare health care plan subsidies and a drug pricing negotiation package aimed at reducing the cost of prescription drugs.

The deal now includes a minimum tax rate on corporations of 15% of their book profit, preventing them from using depreciation expenses to reduce their tax rate below 15%. It also eliminates the carried interest loophole.

Perhaps the most controversial part of the bill is the $80 billion given to the IRS over the next 10 years, the bulk of which will be used for increased audits in an attempt to raise revenue for the federal government. Proponents of the plan, such as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), claim the increased audits will catch high income tax cheats and will pay for themself. Opponents, including most Republicans, claims the IRS will target ordinary taxpayers to raise the revenue, especially the self-employed. The bill’s language does not currently limit the IRS’s increased enforcement budget to only audits on high income/high net worth individuals or corporations.

This plan will need the support of all 50 Democratic senators to pass the Senate. Moderate Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has not yet announced her position.

 

Kentucky Floods Kill at Least 26

Heavy rains in Kentucky this past week caused massive flooding that has claimed the lives of at least 26 people, according to Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D). As many as 37 remain unaccounted for as rescuers attempt to access affected areas, efforts that have been hampered by damage to roads and bridges.

A dozen shelters were opened for flood victims, with least 388 residents taking refuge there Sunday.

The flooding has swept homes off their foundations and sweeping debris for hundreds of yards.

More rain is expected for many of the affected areas in Kentucky, further threatening residents already struggling to recover.

Map showing rainfall totals in Kentucky from 7/25

through 7/29. The heaviest rainfall totals, in red, were 

in eastern Kentucky.

US Enters Recession after Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth

The US economy officially entered recession in the second quarter of 2022, after official estimates showed the GDP, a measure of total economic output, declining at 0.9% rate in Q2. It follows a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

The Biden administration downplayed the decline and refused to say that the US was in recession, touting the low unemployment rate (3.6%) and strong consumer spending. While two consecutive quarters of economic decline is the typical definition of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research also makes their own call whether the US economy is in recession.

 

Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

The Supreme Court issued their decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization last Friday, overturning the previous Supreme Court decisions Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, allowing states to ban abortions within their jurisdictions. The previous decisions that were overturned had found that a constitutional right to abortion had existed and prevented states from banning it.

The court’s decision in Dobbs was praised by pro-life, anti-abortion rights activists who had long sought to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling. Up to 26 states are expected to ban abortions or greatly limit the ability to obtain one.

Pro-choice, pro-abortion rights activists opposed the decision, calling it a threat to women’s rights and promising federal action to preserve abortion rights, such as access to abortion pills and possibly allowing abortions on federal lands in states that ban it.

President Biden has criticized the ruling and has said that he supports codifying a nationwide right to abortion into federal law. Such legislation would require creating an exception to the filibuster rule in the Senate or scrapping the filibuster altogether. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), while supportive of abortion rights, are opposed to such a move.

Some opponents of the Dobbs ruling are calling for changes to the Supreme Court, with some going so far as to call it ‘illegitimate’ and calling for new justices to be added to the court to balance out its conservative lean. Three of the five justices who voted to overturn Roe were appointed by former President Trump during his term.

 

Democrats Attempt Last Push for Build Back Better Revival

Democrats are working to pass a slimmed down version of the Build Back Better bill that failed to pass last year, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) negotiating with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), whose opposition sunk the bill last time, to agree to a smaller package focused on tax increases, deficit reduction, and climate spending, among other proposals.

Manchin and Schumer are reportedly close to a deal to allow the federal government to negotiate drug prices and limit price increases to the inflation rate. Such a proposal will need to be approved by the Senate parliamentarian to include in the reconciliation bill, which will allow Democrats to pass the bill by a simple majority and without any Republican support.

Any package will need the support of all Democrats in the Senate, including moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who has signaled her opposition in the past to raising certain taxes.

Senate Minority Leader (R-KY) sent a tweet Thursday saying that Republicans will not help move forward a bill aimed at competing with China so long as Democrats are pursuing the reconciliation package.

 

Supreme Court Issues Flurry of Conservative Opinions in End of Term

The Supreme Court issued several other notable rulings widely seen as wins for conservatives:

· NYSRPA v. Bruen: Struck down a New York state that required gun permit applicants to show a reason for why they needed to carry a gun

· West Virginia v. EPA: Limits the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate greenhouse gas emissions absent further congressional action

· Kennedy v. Bremerton School District: Coach fired for praying during school game had right to do so under 1st Amendment

 

Uvalde School Shooting Raises Questions, Calls for Gun Control

The devastating shooting last week that claimed the lives of 19 students and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, has led to renewed calls by gun control proponents to control firearm sales and availability. Gun rights supporters have criticized those calls, saying that such measures would not have a major effect on public safety and would erode constitutional rights.

Questions remain over the police response to the shooting. Uvalde police delayed entering the school to engage the shooter, with much of the scrutiny on the chief of police for the Uvalde Consolidate School District, Peter Arredondo. Arredondo is believed to have issued the order for officers not to engage with the shooter inside the school, allegedly believing that he had barricaded himself and was no longer a threat to students. Arredondo has also reportedly stopped cooperating with a state investigation into his response.

Monday saw the first of the many funerals for the victims of the shooting. Services are expected to continue into mid-June.

 

 

 

Clinton Campaign Lawyer Acquitted of Lying to the FBI

Lawyer for the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign Michael Sussmann was acquitted by a jury in federal court Tuesday, ending a two-week trial in which he was accused of lying to the FBI.

The indictment of Sussmann was part of John Durham’s investigation into the origin of the narrative of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative. The indictment accused Sussmann of lying to the FBI in 2016 when he told FBI General Counsel James Baker that he was not representing a client when discussing his allegation that the Trump campaign was working with Russia. Sussmann was working for the Clinton campaign at the time.

 

Markets Close Out Month of Losses with Modest Gains in Final Week

 Today marked the end of a wild month for stocks, and while major indices closed roughly flat from May 1 to My 31, this month saw wild fluctuations in stock prices and investors attempted to price in growing uncertainty as interest rates rise and threats of a recession loom.

The S&P 500 had sustained 7 consecutive weeks of losses prior to last week, the largest such streak since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) suffered an eight-week losing streak, the longest since 1923. These losses came as the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy in an attempt to rein in inflation. Central banks, like the Fed, pursue tighter monetary policy by raising interest rates, which reduce available credit, reducing money supply and reducing the size of the overall economy. In theory, this reduces the rate of price increases and should bring inflation to a stable, low level.

However, with the markets used to the easy money policies since the 2008 financial crash, a tight monetary policy brings uncertainty. Strained supply chains, sticky labor costs, and concerns of the availability of fuel and food have investors concerned about a possible recession and economic turmoil.

While the Russian invasion of Ukraine aggravated much of this turmoil, especially related to food supply given both country’s critical role in supplying food to the world, supply chains have come under enormous strain following the lifting of the coronavirus restrictions, which had reduced supply but also reduced demand. The removal of restrictions helped boost demand, especially given the amount of stimulus provided by governments throughout the pandemic, but supply has not caught up with the demand, creating an inability to fulfill consumer desires.

 

White House Reportedly Weighing Student Loan Debt Relief

President Joe Biden is reportedly weighing forgiving up to $10,000 of federal student loans. This comes as he struggles to regain footing among younger voters. Biden has previously resisted pressure to eliminate debt even while he extended repayment relief multiple times during his term.

Activists and politicians who have been advocating loan forgiveness, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), have pushed for Biden to forgive up to $50,000 in debt. The White House has so far ruled out that amount.

The administration is also considering limiting relief to borrowers below a certain income threshold.

 

Economy Contracts in Q1 as Fed Attempts to Rein in Inflation

The US economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 1.4% annualized in Q1, which fell far below the consensus view that the economy would actually grow around 1% at an annual rate for the quarter. The major driver of the decline was an increase in the trade deficit, with imports surging from Q4 2021, while exports dropped from the same period. Imports are subtracted in GDP calculations, while exports are added. Inventories also decreased in Q1 after a buildup of inventories in the previous quarter.

While an economic contraction is not an ideal scenario, a deeper look reveals some more encouraging metrics. Consumer spending rose in Q1, with private demand rising 3.7%. This occurred even in the midst of accelerating inflation brought on existing economic conditions as well as the economic turmoil caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting financial sanctions.

While the Federal Reserve is often reluctant to raise interest rates amid a slowing economy, the latest numbers are unlikely to halt the Fed from raising interest rates this year in an attempt to tamp down on rising prices. Financial markets have experienced volatility the past few weeks as they price in the expected increases, which, by raising the cost of borrowing money, will slow down the economy, in turn reducing price increases. Besides reducing inflation, the Fed will also attempt to avoid a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, though given the rates of inflation seen over the past year, this will remain a difficult balancing act.

 

Ketanji Brown Jackson Heads Towards Likely Confirmation

The Senate Judiciary Committee completed the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for US Appeals Court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson last week, with Jackson likely heading towards confirmation to become the first black woman on the Supreme Court given Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) announcement that he will support her nomination.

Jackson, who was nominated to succeed retiring Justice Stephen Breyer, was first installed on the US District Court for the District of Columbia in 2013 by President Obama and was elevated to the Appeals Court for the DC Circuit in 2021 by President Biden. Prior to her service on the federal bench, Jackson was vice chair of the US Sentencing Commission and had worked as a federal public defender.

Jackson’s ascension to the Supreme Court would likely not have a major effect on the ideological makeup of the court, as she, widely perceived as a liberal jurist, would be replacing Breyer, another liberal jurist. One possible shift, however, would be in the court’s approach to certain criminal justice issues. Breyer was often deferential to prosecutors and police, while Jackson’s record does not show such a deference.

 

Manchin Reportedly Working to Revive Spending Package

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has given signals that he may be willing to negotiate on a slimmed down version of the previous Build Back Better bill, which he effectively killed in December 2021 after he announced his opposition to it on Fox News Sunday. This bill would likely focus on controlling drug prices, energy policy, and tax increases.

Any legislation he puts forth will still need the support of the 49 other Democratic senators (barring any GOP defections), including fellow moderate Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona. Sinema has been in the past been hesitant to support some of the tax increases proposed last year.

Biden Struggles to Gain Political Footing Ahead of Midterms

President Joe Biden’s approval continues to lag as several domestic and foreign policy challenges cast a shadow over his presidency.

While coronavirus cases have been dropping nationwide, inflation remains a top issue among voters ahead of the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Biden’s approval rating stands at 40.7%, according to the 538 polling aggregate, around the same level as former President Donald Trump’s average rating when he was president.

The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine also poses a challenge for the administration. Biden faces pressure from both those arguing for a more interventionist stance as well as those arguing for a more hands-off approach.

A possible positive development for the president is his nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court caused by the retirement of Stephen Breyer. While Jackson’s ascension of the court will not cause any substantial change in the ideological makeup of the court, Democrats hope the first black woman on the Supreme Court will excite their base.

 

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Continues as Western Countries Respond with Sanctions, Aid

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his country’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine last week, capping months of speculation over whether Russia would invade Ukraine, and if so, to what extent. The invasion is a large-scale manuever, with Russian troops advancing into Ukraine along its borders with Russia and Belarus, a key Russian ally.

The first days of the invasion have seen Russia take over sections of the country, though Russia has failed to establish air superiority over the country’s air space even after strikes aimed to take out Ukraine's air defenses on the first day. No major cities have been taken yet, though both sides have engaged in heavy fighting in the capital and largest city Kiev as well as Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv. Both cities are close to the borders of Belarus and Russia respectively and are vulnerable to Russian attacks. 

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has vowed to remain in Kiev while fighting for control of the capital continues. He has posted videos on social media in attempts to boost morale at home as well as garner support from international audiences.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to stage a coup against the Zelensky government, calling them ‘drug addicts’ and ‘neo-Nazis,’ and claimed that reaching a peace between Russia and a replacement government will be easier. Such a peace would likely entail Russian suzerainty over Ukraine and the possible cession of lands in the eastern part of Ukraine.

While the consensus has been that Ukraine will eventually fall to Russia should Russia use the full force of its conventional forces to take over the country, some observers have remarked positively on the strength of the Ukrainian resistance to the invasion, which has prevented the capture of any major cities thus far and prevented the capture of a critical airfield near Kiev.

Western countries have been providing Ukraine with military aid and intelligence both prior to and during the Russian invasion. The US and European Union have announced additional sanctions against Russia, as well as removing certain Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system, which allows international financial transactions to occur.

Nor'easter Dumps Massive Amounts of Snow over the Weekend

Cities across the Northeast are cleaning up after a strong nor’easter tore through the region this weekend, dumping massive amounts of snow and bringing freezing temperatures.

Boston experienced 23.6 inches of snow in one day, tying a record set in 2003.

Authorities had urged residents to stay off the roads and away from any downed powerlines.

 

President Biden’s Approval Rating Suffers Amid Challenges

President Joe Biden had a politically rough first month of 2022, with his polling numbers falling to the lowest point of his year-old presidency.

According to the 538 polling aggregate, Biden has 41.6% approval rating among registered and likely voters, with 53.3% disapproving. Most polls show strong majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. His approval of handling of the coronavirus pandemic, once a strong point, has suffered, with one recent poll finding a slight net approval, 50-49%.

His party is also facing challenges ahead of the midterm elections. Currently, Republicans lead Democrats by 4.1 points in the congressional generic ballot RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.

While President Biden has time before November to recover his standing, he will need to overcome several challenges to make it happen. Inflation, which rose to the highest level in four decades, continues to cause economic hardship for millions of Americans. The threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine will also test the president’s diplomatic and foreign policy skills in the coming months.

 

Iconic Actress Betty White Dies at 99

Betty White, who set the record for the longest television career in history, spanning eight decades, died Friday at the age of 99.

White, born on January 17, 1922, in Oak Park, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. Her first media appearance was a guest call to a radio show in 1930. She began modeling and acting after graduating high school, but she put her career on hold to serve in the American Women’s Voluntary Services during World War II.

After the war, she began appearing on television, where she would be a regular fixture for decades. Notably, in 1954, when The Betty White Show received criticism for the inclusion of black tap dance performer Arthur Duncan, White defended his appearance on the show and even expanded his role.

White was the last surviving main cast member of two notable shows, The Mary Tyler Moore Show and The Golden Girls. She was also the oldest main cast member of both shows, with all her younger castmates predeceasing her.

White would have celebrated her 100th birthday on January 17. A cinema event celebrating her birthday and documenting her career had been planned to mark the occasion; the filmmaker who created the documentary confirmed that it will still be shown in theaters on the 17th.