President Biden’s Approval Rating Suffers Amid Challenges

President Joe Biden had a politically rough first month of 2022, with his polling numbers falling to the lowest point of his year-old presidency.

According to the 538 polling aggregate, Biden has 41.6% approval rating among registered and likely voters, with 53.3% disapproving. Most polls show strong majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. His approval of handling of the coronavirus pandemic, once a strong point, has suffered, with one recent poll finding a slight net approval, 50-49%.

His party is also facing challenges ahead of the midterm elections. Currently, Republicans lead Democrats by 4.1 points in the congressional generic ballot RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.

While President Biden has time before November to recover his standing, he will need to overcome several challenges to make it happen. Inflation, which rose to the highest level in four decades, continues to cause economic hardship for millions of Americans. The threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine will also test the president’s diplomatic and foreign policy skills in the coming months.

 

Bob Dole, Former Republican Presidential Candidate and Elder Statesman, Dies at 98

Bob Dole, the former US senator from Kansas who was the Republican presidential candidate in the 1996 election, died Sunday at 98. Dole had been battling lung cancer, and was taking immunotherapy to treat the disease.

Dole was born on July 22, 1923 in Russell, Kansas. He enrolled in the University of Kansas, where he played several sports including basketball and track, but left in 1942 to fight in World War II, where he became an officer in the US Army. He was severely injured in combat in Italy, and while he never regained use of his right arm, he managed to recover the use most of the rest of his body.

Dole was elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1950, and two years later became the county attorney of Russell County, a position in which he served for 8 years. He ran for the US House of Representatives in 1960 for Kansas's 6th Congressional District, and after he was elected, he served in the chamber for 8 years. During that time, he supported several notable civil rights bills, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Dole ran for and won a seat in the US Senate in 1968, and he served in the chamber until 1996. Dole became Senate Majority Leader in 1985, became Senate Minority Leader two years later when the GOP lost the chamber in the 1986 elections, and regained the Majority Leader post when Republican recaptured Congress in 1994. He also served as chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) from 1971 to 1973. 

Dole was selected as Gerald Ford's running mate in the 1976 presidential election, replacing Nelson Rockefeller, who was seen as too moderate for many in the party. His addition to Ford's ticket was an attempt to keep conservative delegates from supporting Ronald Reagan's presidential candidacy at the 1976 convention, the last contested presidential election to date. While the Ford-Dole ticket emerged victorious at the convention, it ultimately lost to the Carter-Mondale ticket that year.

During his time in Congress, he created relationships and friendships across the aisle that helped achieve the passage of several pieces of legislation, including the American with Disabilities Act and legislation dealing with social security and food assistance.

Dole ran for president in 1980 and 1988, losing in the primaries to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush respectively. The third time proved the charm in 1996, when he won the Republican primary and faced off against incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton. He resigned from the Senate to focus on his campaign, which ended unsuccessfully that November when Clinton managed to win another term. Republicans did manage to keep both chambers of Congress that year.

Dole became an elder statesman in the Republican Party in his post-elected career. He also appeared in several television advertisements, including for Pepsi and Viagra (he was open about his struggles with erectile disfunction and aimed to remove the stigma of the condition).

Dole notably was the only former Republican presidential nominee to support Donald Trump after he won the Republican primary in the 2016 election. Dole reiterated his support for Trump in the 2020 election and defended him from what he saw as unfair treatment of Trump from the Commission on Presidential Debates during the debates with eventual election winner Joe Biden. 

While Dole referred to himself as a "Trumper" following the 2020 election and expressed his disappointment in Trump's loss, he also said he was "Trumped out" and criticized Trump's claims of election fraud, saying that there was no evidence for it.

Dole had spoken well of Biden following his election victory, calling him "a great, kind, upstanding, decent person," though he was critical of what he perceived as Biden leaning too far left and the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Other than his political statements, Dole managed to keep an active life until the end, even in face of his cancer diagnosis, visiting the Dole Institute frequently at the University of Kansas and even visiting all of Kansas's 105 counties.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for the flags at the Capitol to be set to half-mast in honor of Dole. Other politicians from across the aisle have also issued statements of remembrance following the announcement of his death, highlighting his commitment to work across the aisle and his bravery in his military service.

Biden’s Domestic Agenda Makes Progress While His Approval Lags

Several pieces of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda moved forward in Congress this month. As part of an agreement with House progressives, more moderate members of the House Democratic caucus promised to vote for Biden’s larger social spending package if progressives backed the infrastructure bill. Both sides adhered to the agreement, and the House passed the House after it was passed by the Senate earlier this year. Biden has since signed the bill into law. The House also passed the social spending package, now titled the ‘Build Back Better Act,’ where it now faces an uncertain future in the Senate.

While Democratic leadership has been aiming to pass the package by Christmas, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has frequently criticized the bill’s cost and scope, refused Monday to commit to voting on the bill by the end of the year.

Democrats hope that the passage of both bills will increase Biden’s approval ratings, which have declined over the past several months. Biden experienced no boost after the passage of the infrastructure bill earlier this month, and while some recent polls have shown some slight improvement to his net approval rating, he remains underwater in the RealClearPolitics and 538 polling aggregates.

This comes as Republicans have grown increasingly bullish on their chances to take over Congress after the 2022 midterm elections. Recent polling has shown the GOP with a lead over Democrats in the generic congressional ballot polls, an indicator of how a party will perform overall in the general election nationwide.

 

Virginia Governor’s Race Nears End as Poll Shows Close Race

The Virginia gubernatorial election this Tuesday is down to the wire as Democrats try to keep a seat that they have held for eight years. Republican candidate, businessman and political newcomer Glenn Youngkin, is statistically tied with former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, who held the governorship from 2014 to 2018.

McAuliffe has tried to tie Youngkin to former President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in the state and lost to Biden by 10 points in 2020. While Youngkin has not campaigned with Trump and does not emphasize him on the campaign trial, he has spoken positively of Trump and the former president has endorsed him.

Youngkin has made education a large focus of his campaign, favoring increased parental involvement and criticizing Critical Race Theory. McAuliffe has criticized Youngkin and other Republicans’ focus on Critical Race Theory, arguing it is not taught in schools and should not be a factor in the race.

If Republicans pick up the governorship Tuesday, it could be a worrisome sign for Democrats going into the 2022 midterms. A Democratic win could lead to increased confidence for the party in the face of President Biden's lower approval ratings.

 

Democrats in Congress Struggle to Pass Biden’s Agenda

Democrats have continued to struggle in passing President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda through Congress. Two bills, one focusing on physical infrastructure and one on social spending and climate change, are in limbo as more moderate Democrats and the party’s progressive wing battle to include (or remove) parts of the social spending bill, now titled the ‘Build Back Better Act.’

Moderates have criticized the large size of the social spending bill and have succeeded in removing multiple provisions from it, such as free community college, paid family leave, longer extensions of the child tax credit, and green electricity plans. Progressives have criticized these cuts and prevented passage of the infrastructure bill to ensure leverage over the social spending bill.

 

Biden’s Approval Drops Amid Several Challenges

President Biden’s approval rating has dropped in recent weeks as the administration attempts to recover from the chaotic evacuation as American troops left Afghanistan. Recent political developments have given little breathing room.

While Democrats struggle to pass two large spending bills, Biden has faced criticism over his handling of migrants crossing the US-Mexican border. The most visible incident in recent days was the encampment of primarily Haitian migrants under the international bridge in Del Rio, Texas. The camp has since been cleared out, with the migrants either returned to Haiti or allowed to enter the US.

The president’s vaccination mandates have also occupied much of the administration’s attention, with businesses expressing frustration with the lack of opportunity for input regarding the new rules. Biden announced earlier this month that all federal employees and contractors will have to receive COVID-19 vaccinations or face termination, as would all employees of companies employing more than 100 people.

 

Infrastructure Bill Likely to Pass Senate

 A bipartisan infrastructure package is poised to be passed by the Senate next week. The $550 billion plan, far below what President Joe Biden initially pushed for, is still a work-in-progress, with the final text not yet complete. It aims to provide billions in funding for physical infrastructure, as well as gather revenue from higher customs fees and stricter cryptocurrency transaction reporting requirements.

Some progressives are unsatisfied with the plan, favoring higher spending on a broader array of projects. Another massive $3.5 trillion spending package, covering issues ranging from climate change, immigration, taxes, and social spending, remains a priority for most Democrats, though some moderates, like Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), have criticized that plan's high price tag.

 

Rising Prices Raise Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve reported that the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE), which measures the prices of consumer goods minus food and energy, rose at a 3.1% annualized rate in April, an increase from 1.9% in March. This was higher than the expected 2.9% increase.

If one were to include food and energy prices, inflation rose to 3.6% in April, up from 2.4% in Match.

The Federal Reserve has tried to allay fears of rising inflation, blaming it on supply-chain bottlenecks and the large fiscal stimulus, which they believe are temporary factors. In addition, the inflation is starting from a relatively low base line, as price increases were low during the coronavirus lockdown and related economic downturn.

The Biden administration, which has proposed trillions in additional spending, has signaled they believe that they can continue the large amounts of fiscal stimulus without drastically raising inflation. Republicans have countered that the additional money pumped into the economy could lead to even higher prices.

The US is not alone in facing inflation risk. Germany reported a 2.4% inflation rate for May. Spain also experienced the same inflation rate for May.

Markets overall have responded negatively to the news of increased inflation. While US markets have stabilized in the past few days, increased volatility in equity markets worldwide have continued. Cryptocurrency markets have also seen sharp declines from their previous highs, though other factors besides inflation worries are likely at play.

 

After Coronavirus Stimulus Bill, Democrats Eye Larger Plans

The American Rescue Plan, President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill, passed Congress on a party line vote this month, delivering $1,400 checks to most Americans, extending unemployment benefits, and allocating billions for various spending plans. While the plan only passed narrowly, many Democrats in Congress hope their small majorities in Congress will be enough to pass more ambitious plans, including a $3 trillion infrastructure plan, direct tax hikes on upper-income Americans, and gun control bills.

Democrats hope to pay for many of their plans through direct tax increases on those making $400,000 or more per year, as well as through increased enforcement of tax laws though increased audits.

On gun control, a longtime Democratic priority, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) claims that the Senate can pass a bipartisan bill to expand background checks, something echoed by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA). However, such a bill may be seen as too weak by more liberal Democrats, and will almost certainly draw strong opposition from most Republicans, casting doubt on Murphy’s and Toomey’s claims.

Some Democrats are calling for the elimination of the filibuster, the parliamentary rule which prohibits the Senate from advancing most legislation without 60 votes. President Biden has not called for the complete elimination of the filibuster, but has signaled openness to “reform,” remaining unclear on what changes to it he would support. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), considered the swing vote in the Senate, has said he would not support elimination the filibuster, but, like Biden, has signaled that he could be open to certain changes that would allow legislation to pass more easily.

 

Trump Makes First Public Appearance Since Leaving Office at CPAC

Former President Donald Trump appeared publicly for the first time since leaving office in January, giving a speech at CPAC in Orlando, Florida. During the speech he said he will not establish a new political party, rather focusing on influencing the Republican Party. He also broke with recent tradition, directly criticizing President Joe Biden’s presidency, saying, “Joe Biden has had the most disastrous first month of any president in modern history.”

Trump won the presidential straw poll with 55%, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis  coming in second, winning 21%. While DeSantis had a home field advantage, with CPAC being held in Florida rather than its usual location in National Harbor, Maryland, it could signal that DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, could become a strong opponent to Trump should both run in 2024.

 

House Passes Stimulus Bill, Faces Uncertainty over Minimum Wage

The House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Saturday. The bill includes measures related to increased funding for COVID testing, school funding, stimulus checks, and assistance for  rent and food. In addition, it extends unemployment benefits and provides money to states to fund their liabilities.

The bill also contains language to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next several years. However, this clause will have to be removed if the Senate wishes to pass the bill under reconciliation, which would allow the bill to become law with only 51 votes, rather than the 60 votes needed to end debate and pass the bill. The Senate parliamentarian ruled this past week that the minimum wage increase could not be included in a reconciliation bill because it did not directly affect government revenues and expenses. Proponents of the minimum wage increase, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), argued that the minimum wage increase would increase government revenue through more taxes because of the increased wages paid and is thus eligible.

Republicans in the Senate have signaled opposition to the minimum wage increase, saying it will increase unemployment as employers would lay of workers for whom they could no longer afford their wages. Some moderate Democratic senators have also signaled opposition, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has said that the $15 minimum is too high for his state’s employers to pay for many of their workers.

President Biden has seemed to concede that the minimum wage clause will not be included in the reconciliation bill, promising to take it up as a stand alone bill in the future.

 

Biden Works to Advance His Agenda in His First Days

President Biden has begun pushing his agenda in his first days as president, issuing numerous executive orders and laying out his administration’s plan for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

Biden has already issued more than three dozen executive orders that cover issues including abortion, immigration and border security, economic regulations, COVID-19, criminal justice, and climate change. The pace of Biden’s executive orders is largely unprecedented this early in one’s presidency, with presidents previously spreading their first executive orders, especially over more controversial matters, over several months.

While Republicans have predictably criticized Biden’s orders, many of which reverse or rollback former President Trump’s own executive orders, some Democrats have also said that the administration should focus on legislative action to increase the scope of change as well as make such changes more permanent. Executive orders can easily be reversed by future administrations and cannot change or add to existing legislation.

Pushing through his agenda in Congress in the coming weeks could prove difficult for the president. He faces an evenly split Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris would cast a tie-breaking vote and a House of Representatives with a slim Democratic majority. In addition, the next few weeks are likely to be consumed with the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump, who was impeached just before his term ended over his alleged role in encouraging rioters who broke into and occupied the Capitol building on January 6. Regular Senate business is likely to be postponed or curtailed during trial proceedings.

 

Joe Biden Sworn in as 46th President

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. has been sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. He takes office as the oldest president in American history after he defeated incumbent Republican Donald Trump, who conceded defeat this month.

His running mate, Kamala Harris, has become the first woman to become Vice President, as well as the first black and Asian-American to take that office. She is the second Vice President to have significant non-white ancestry, after Charles Curtis, Calvin Coolidge's vice president.

Biden emphasized unity in his inaugural speech, citing a need for a more constructive, less divisive political climate to address the challenges the country faces.

Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

Biden Projected to Defeat Trump, Ending Era in Presidential Politics

Former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential election, with currently projected to win 290 electoral votes to Trump's 214 electoral votes, with Georgia and North Carolina still outstanding. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Biden's victory will bring back a Democrat to the White House for the first time since 2017. Biden had emphasized character in his campaign and had promised to bring unity and civility back to government. Trump had essentially embraced the turbulence his tenure had brought to Washington, who in 2016 campaigned as shaking up the Washington establishment.

With Biden's victory, his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris will become the first woman and the second person of color (after Charles Curtis, Herbert Hoover's vice president) to serve as vice president.

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed to Supreme Court

Barrett, picture here in 2018,
after her elevation to the Seventh
Court of Appeals

Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the Seventh Court of Appeals was confirmed Monday on a nearly party-line vote, with all Democrats voting against confirmation and all Republicans voting for it except for Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is locked in a close reelection battle. 

Barrett, who was nominated last month to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg after her death from pancreatic cancer, is widely viewed as a judicial conservative and has repeatedly affirmed her belief in  originalist jurisprudence that seeks to interpret laws as they were originally written. Her elevation to the high court is expected to shift the court to the right as she replaces the liberal Ginsburg and removes Chief Justice John Roberts, a moderate conservative, as the swing vote.

 

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.