Robert Mueller Speaks Publicly for the First Time Since Investigation Started

Former Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller spoke publicly Wednesday to speak on the findings in his report on Russian intervention in the 2016 presidential election, alleged Trump campaign collusions with those efforts, and possible obstruction efforts by President Trump of the investigation.

Mueller offered no new information on his findings. He reiterated that the report did not find criminal activity between the Trump campaign and Russia, but could not says the Trump campaign did not commit any obstruction. Mueller said once again that his investigation was constrained by Department of Justice guidelines that prohibit the indictment of a sitting president.

Mueller refused to take questions and said he would not engage in hypotheticals. Chief among them is whether Mueller would indict Trump if he were not the president. The report said that, in addition to the DOJ guidelines, such charges may be difficult to prove given the president’s wide latitude to appoint and dismiss officials. Most evidence of obstruction given in Mueller’s report was related to Trump’s failed attempts to fire officials overseeing the investigation.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Wins Second Term

Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a second term after his BJP party captured a resounding victory in the Indian general elections. The second largest party, the Indian National Congress (INC), failed to win 55 seats (it won 52 out of 543 elected seats), leaving the Lok Sabha without an official opposition for the second time in a row.

While Modi’s party suffered defeats in state assembly elections earlier this year, the BJP managed to increase the number of seats it holds from the 2014 elections, where Modi won his first term, succeeding INC Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

European Politics Shaken Up with Elections, Brexit Drama

Establishment center-right and center-left parties lost support in the European Parliament elections last week. While the two blocs still make up 48.2% of the seats, they lost their majority in the body for the first time since its inception. Liberal parties and non-establishment Greens and populist Eurosceptic parties also saw gains.

Focusing on one country, in the United Kingdom, these elections were not even expected to happen just a few months ago. The country, which voted to leave the EU in June 2016, has stalled in its progress to accomplish that goal, with disagreements arising over the terms of the trade deal with the EU after it leaves the bloc as well over its border with Ireland.

The party with the greatest vote share in the UK was the newly-formed Brexit Party, created by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, formerly of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). While the Brexit Party just under 31% the vote, two parties that favor staying in the EU and even having a second referendum on the question, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, saw a combined 31.4% of the vote. These results point to a strongly polarized electorate. The two longtime establishment parties, the Conservatives and Labor, gathered 13.6% and 8.8% respectively.

British Prime Minister Theresa May announced she will resign following the poor result of her Conservative Party which will only walk away with four seats. May will formally leave office once her successor is determined by Conservative voters.

Biden Enters Democratic Presidential Race on Top

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced last Thursday his entry into the crowded field for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Biden currently faces at least 20 other major candidates, as well as some others who may join the race, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Biden currently tops the field in polling, leading second place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders by 13.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. No other candidates currently break double digits, though some, like South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have seen the poll numbers rise over the past month, with Buttigieg starting near zero when he announced to now around 8.4%. Some, such as Texas Sen. Beto O’Rourke, have seen declines, with O’Rourke now polling around 5.6%, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

With the nearest electoral contest not until the start of 2020, polls are bound to change. However, the large polling lead that Biden currently has likely indicates a strong early advantage over other contestants, and is higher than Jeb Bush’s polling lead in the early Republican primary polls in 2016 (Bush eventually only won less than 1% of the vote after withdrawing in February 2016).

Sanders’s high poll numbers may also be an indication of winning potential, as he has kept a large share of his support from 2016, even with other candidates this cycle echoing his policies. If he manages to maintain this support and add to it when other progressive challengers inevitably drop out, his path to the nomination may become clearer.

Mueller Report Released

Attorney General William Barr released the Mueller Report on April 18. The report, which had portions of it redacted to protect information related to ongoing investigations and grand jury testimony, detailed Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election, the investigation into whether the Trump campaign conspired with them and whether President Trump attempted to obstruct justice. 

The report says Mueller’s team did not find that the Trump campaign criminally conspired with the Russian government. It did not make a judgment whether the Trump campaign obstructed justice, however. It listed actions by Trump that Mueller viewed as evidence that obstruction may have occurred, such as firing FBI Director James Comey and telling then-White House Counsel Don McGahn to fire Mueller, but also wrote that such actions do fall under executive constitutional authority and thus can be hard to prove conclusively as obstruction. In addition, Mueller cited existing Department of Justice guidelines that do not allow indictments of sitting presidents.