Biden Enters Democratic Presidential Race on Top

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced last Thursday his entry into the crowded field for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Biden currently faces at least 20 other major candidates, as well as some others who may join the race, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Biden currently tops the field in polling, leading second place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders by 13.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. No other candidates currently break double digits, though some, like South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have seen the poll numbers rise over the past month, with Buttigieg starting near zero when he announced to now around 8.4%. Some, such as Texas Sen. Beto O’Rourke, have seen declines, with O’Rourke now polling around 5.6%, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

With the nearest electoral contest not until the start of 2020, polls are bound to change. However, the large polling lead that Biden currently has likely indicates a strong early advantage over other contestants, and is higher than Jeb Bush’s polling lead in the early Republican primary polls in 2016 (Bush eventually only won less than 1% of the vote after withdrawing in February 2016).

Sanders’s high poll numbers may also be an indication of winning potential, as he has kept a large share of his support from 2016, even with other candidates this cycle echoing his policies. If he manages to maintain this support and add to it when other progressive challengers inevitably drop out, his path to the nomination may become clearer.

Mueller Report Released

Attorney General William Barr released the Mueller Report on April 18. The report, which had portions of it redacted to protect information related to ongoing investigations and grand jury testimony, detailed Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election, the investigation into whether the Trump campaign conspired with them and whether President Trump attempted to obstruct justice. 

The report says Mueller’s team did not find that the Trump campaign criminally conspired with the Russian government. It did not make a judgment whether the Trump campaign obstructed justice, however. It listed actions by Trump that Mueller viewed as evidence that obstruction may have occurred, such as firing FBI Director James Comey and telling then-White House Counsel Don McGahn to fire Mueller, but also wrote that such actions do fall under executive constitutional authority and thus can be hard to prove conclusively as obstruction. In addition, Mueller cited existing Department of Justice guidelines that do not allow indictments of sitting presidents.

Democratic Race Heats Up as Biden Faces First Allegation

The Democratic race for president has become more competitive than before with well over a dozen major entrants into the race, with former and current US senators governors, representatives, mayors, and executive officials in the race, with even more expected to enter in the coming weeks. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has not formally announced his entry into the race but is widely expected to do so, leads nationwide polling, usually getting around 30% of the vote.

Biden’s fortune may have turned over the weekend, however, as a former Nevada state legislator accused him of unwanted kissing and fondling when she was running for lieutenant governor in 2014. Biden has denied the allegation, saying he considers himself to have never behaved inappropriately with women in the past. His past interactions with women, however, may return to haunt him, with many observers pointing out his proclivity for touching women’s and shoulders and moving his head close to theirs, many of these instances captured on videos and in photographs.

The first primaries and caucuses are still almost a year away. The Republicans are not expected to have a competitive primary, with incumbent Donald Trump a prohibitive favorite against any primary challenger.

Mueller Report Complete, AG Says He Will Release It

A dramatic chapter in US political history has come to an end as Special Counsel Robert Mueller turned in his final report to US Attorney General William Barr, detailing his findings on Russian meddling in the 2016 election, alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, and whether the president obstructed justice. The full report has not been released, but a four-page summary released by Barr says the 300-page report concluded there was no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia and there was  insufficient evidence that Trump obstructed justice, leaving the choice to prosecute the president to the Department of Justice (DOJ). Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein both agreed that there was insufficient evidence to prosecute Trump and will not do so, with both not considering whether prosecuting a sitting president is appropriate. Their decision effectively ends the president’s legal worries on that front.

Democrats criticized Barr for not releasing the report, calling for the full publication of the report, a position that has bipartisan support according to polls and a recent House vote on the matter. Barr has said he will release the report in April once the DOJ properly redacts it to prevent the release of classified information.

Trump has claimed complete exoneration on the matter, with Democrats responding the report did not do so, especially on the matter of obstruction. However, given Trump’s repeated claims that his campaign did not collude with the Russians and the report not discovering any evidence of it doing so, the Trump team’s celebration does not appear to be without cause.

India, Pakistan Escalate Tensions

India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states and historic adversaries, engaged in military confrontation this past week. The escalation in violence can be traced back to a February 14 attack by Islamist insurgents on Indian paramilitary troops in the disputed Kashmir region which killed 40 Indian soldiers. India launched strikes on the group inside Pakistani territory after it accused Pakistan of supporting the militants. Pakistan responded by shooting at an Indian fighter jet. The Indian pilot ejected and was captured by Pakistani forces.

Pakistan has said that it will free the pilot, following a request from India. Pakistan, however, did use the pilot’s capture extensively for propaganda purposes, with showings of the pilot’s comments of how well Pakistan was treating him widely circulating on Pakistani media.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke to officials from both countries in an attempt to stave off tensions. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also called for  the de-escalation of tensions, saying “De-escalation should not be understood as a sign of weakness...These tensions do not benefit Pakistan or India.”