Election Predictions: Election Day 2022

Here are our predictions for the House, Senate, and governor races for today's election:

House

Senate

Governors

Let us know where you agree and disagree in the comments!

GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

Crowd Crush in Seoul Leaves At Least 154 Dead

A human crowd crush during Halloween celebrations in Seoul, South Korea left at least 154 dead and injured at least 152 more.

The cause of the incident, the deadliest peacetime disaster in the country since the 2014 ferry sinking killing 306, is still under investigation. Local outlets reported that it may have been caused by people trying to see a yet-to-be identified celebrity in a nearby club.

 

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Wins Election

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, often known mononymously as Lula, won Sunday’s presidential vote to recapture his old position, defeating incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by just under 2 million votes out of nearly 120 million cast, or by around 1.8 percentage points.

The election marks a remarkable comeback for the former two-term president, who led the country from 2003 to 2010. Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff, a fellow member of his left-wing Worker Party (PT), was impeached on corruption charges. Lula himself was convicted on corruption and money laundering charges in 2017, spending 580 days in jail. Lula successfully appealed his conviction, which he and his supporters argued was politically motivated, in 2021, clearing the way for him to run for president in 2022.

Outgoing President Bolsonaro, considered one of the most right-wing current leaders of a democratic country, has not yet conceded the election. While he lost, he outperformed most opinion polls, which had him losing to Lula by 5-10 points.

Queen Elizabeth's Funeral Caps Days of Mourning for Late British Monarch

The world said goodbye to the Queen Elizabeth II on Monday, with heads of state from around the world joining British royalty and politicians at Westminster Abbey. The memorial services, which were part of larger funeral plans decades in the making, were relatively short, in keeping with the queen’s wishes.

Following the service, her casket was taken to Buckingham Palace for a final time before being rolled to Wellington Arch, where it was then transferred to the hearse. Members of the public lined up along the road as her body was taken to Windsor Castle, where a second, smaller service occurred. At this service, the crown, orb, and scepter were removed from atop the casket, and her body was lowered into the chapel. The funeral was concluded later in the day with a private ceremony for her family, in which the queen was buried next to her husband, the late Duke of Edinburgh Prince Philip, and other deceased members of the royal family, including her late father, King George VI, mother, and sister.

The funeral caps ten days of mourning for the queen, who died September 8 after it was reported she was under medical supervision.

 

Queen Elizabeth II: 1926-2022

Queen Elizabeth's seven-decade reign ended September 8, with her death at 96 announced by Buckingham Palace. Her time on the throne spanned 15 prime ministers, from Churchill to Truss, and 14 US presidents, from Truman to Biden. It outlasted the Soviet Union, from Stalin to Gorbachev, and saw both the entry and exit of the UK from the European Union.

While the queen did not take an active role in politics, were seven decades on the throne saw a massive shift in Britain's place in the world: From superpower empire to a lesser great power status with still a major influence on the world. One of the last living links to World War II at the time of her death, she set the record for the longest reigning monarch of the UK and the second longest reigning monarch of a sovereign nation in history, only second to King Louis XIV of France and his 72 years on the throne (the first part of which was a regency given his young age). 

Elizabeth was born on April 21, 1926. Her father, then known as 'Albert,' was not expected to become king, with Edward (who was often called David), the elder brother to Albert, the heir apparent to the then-reigning King George V. Edward ascended to the throne after George V's death in 1936, becoming King Edward VIII.

Her fate turned when Edward VIII abdicated his throne in 1936 to marry American divorcee Wallis Simpson. Albert became King George VI, and she became heir to the throne. George VI led his country through WWII. 

Elizabeth became an honorary member of the women's Auxiliary Territorial Service, training as a driver and a mechanic. She appeared with her father and Prime Minister Winston Churchill on May 8, 1945, on the balcony of Buckingham Palace to celebrate the end of the war in Europe following Germany's surrender. 

In 1947, after Elizabeth turned 21, she married Philip, a member of the Greek and Danish royal families. Philip and Elizabeth had met when she was 13 and he was 18, and they had exchanged letters since. To marry her, Philip gave up his foreign royal titles and became a British subject.

In 1948, their first son, Charles, was born. In 1950, they had their only daughter, Anne.

In 1952, after suffering with health problems largely related to his heavy smoking, George VI died. Elizabeth and Philip were in Kenya at the time, and they immediately returned to the UK. Her formal coronation occurred the following year.

The first two decades of her reign saw a dramatic shift in the role of the UK in geopolitics. Postwar Britain, while still an empire with global influence, faced severe economic challenges in the years that followed, including food rationing until 1954. While economic growth picked up in the 1950s, Britain's status as a superpower eroded, especially in the aftermath of the Suez Crisis in 1956. The 1960s saw a wave of decolonization and independence of the UK's African colonies, starting with Ghana in 1957, and with it, the loss of much of the British Empire. 

While the UK's hard political power declined in this era, these decades saw the rise of Britain's soft cultural power. British popular music was exported throughout the world, with the 'British Invasion' of music to the US, most notably through the Beatles, cementing a greater cultural affinity between the two nations. In 1969, a reality show style documentary, Royal Family, premiered in the UK, which helped bring about their status as not just royals, but celebrities.

The 1970s saw major changes in British politics and economics. Decimalization of the pound occurred in 1971. In 1973, the UK entered the European Union, though it was a more hesitant member and opted out of many of the bloc's programs. The late 1970s saw increased labor disputes, with the winter of 1978 and 1979 termed the 'Winter of Discontent.' These economic issues led to Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives winning a parliamentary majority in 1979 and the ushering in of liberal economic reforms of the 1980s. 

The royal family's image received a large boost with the 1981 'Wedding of the Century': the marriage of Prince Charles and Lady Diana Spencer. While the wedding itself was grand success from a public relations standpoint, the resulting marriage was not. Charles had carried on an extramarital affair with Camilla Shand, who he had dated prior to his marriage with Diana. Diana and he separated in 1992, and they were divorced in 1996. The marriage of her other son, Prince Andrew, also collapsed in 1992, along with the divorce of Anne and her husband. These events, along with a fire in Windsor Castle, led to Elizabeth calling 1992 her 'Annus horribilis,' or horrible year.

Diana later died in a car crash in 1997 in France as her driver tried fleeing the paparazzi. Queen Elizabeth's response was criticized at the time as not sensitive enough. Elizabeth later did a televised speech honoring her memory that allayed some of the criticism.

In 2002, her mother, Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother, the widow of George VI, died at 101. Queen Elizabeth, now the matriarch of the royal family, was often seen as a grandmotherly figure in the last two decades of her rule. Her grandson William, the eldest son of Charles, married Catherine "Kate" Middleton in 2011. 

Queen Elizabeth, known for her humor, participated in the 2012 London Olympics ceremony, acting in a piece with James Bond actor Daniel Craig and having a stunt double dressed as her parachute into the stadium.

Her last decade on the throne saw two major referendums. The first in 2015 saw Scottish independence voted down (a result with which she was reportedly happy, though she did not publicly comment on her preference). The second in 2016 was voters approve the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union. The process of 'Brexit' dominated the country's politics for years until it was finally complete in 2020 after Conservatives won a strong victory in the 2019 parliamentary elections. The resulting parliament approved the terms of the Brexit deal.

Her final years were shadowed by the coronavirus pandemic, which caused the deaths of thousands in the country. The queen herself would contract the disease, though she survived the infection.

Prince Philip, after suffering years of health issues, died in April 2021 at 99. The queen continued working, though her own health issues became more apparent at the time of her Platinum Jubilee earlier this year, which celebrated her 70 years on the throne, the first British monarch to reach that milestone.

Elizabeth had been at Balmoral Castle in Scotland in the weeks preceding her death. She met with Prime Minister Liz Truss to formally invite her to form a government after Truss had won the Conservative leadership contest to replace outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Her meeting with Truss would be the last time the queen would have a public photograph taken.

Drone show at Buckingham Palace for Queen's
Platinum Jubilee
By Amr Vignesh - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=118968536

On September 8, it was announced that she was placed on medical supervision and that her family was traveling to Balmoral Castle to be with her. This sparked speculation that the queen was in her final hours, especially after BBC personalities changed to dark suits (which were part of contingency plans should the queen die). Her death was announced a few hours later.

With her death, Charles, who had been heir apparent for 70 years, became King Charles III. His wife Camilla became queen consort. William became Prince of Wales, with his Catherine becoming Princess of Wales, the first to hold that title since Diana. 

Her funeral will take place on Monday, September 19. 

Queen Elizabeth II Dies at 96

Queen Elizabeth II has died at 96 at Balmoral Castle in Scotland. Elizabeth had reigned since 1952, following the death of her father King George VI. Her 70 years on the British throne was the longest reign in British history and the second longest reign of a sovereign ruler in history, just after King Louis XIV of France.

Queen Elizabeth was born April 21, 1926. She ascended the throne on February 6, 1952. Her reign spanned 15 prime ministers, from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss. 

Her son, Charles, has become king upon her death.

Mikhail Gorbachev: 1931-2022

Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union who presided over its dissolution and abandonment of Marxist-Leninist communism, died Tuesday at 91. Russian news agencies reported that his death followed “a serious and long” illness.

One of the most consequential leaders of the 20th century, Gorbachev was born in 1931, the only Soviet leader born after the USSR was already established. Moving his way up through the Communist Party ranks, he joined the Politburo in 1979. Following the brief terms of Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko, he became General Secretary in 1985.

By the time he came to power, the Soviet Union had a stagnant economy, a dysfunctional government, and a military quagmire in Afghanistan. In an attempt to salvage the Soviet Union, he initiated structural reforms, perestroika, and a new openness and transparency to the outside world unprecedented in Soviet history, glasnost.

The reforms were not enough to salvage the failing Soviet system, however, and even helped lead to the dissolution of the state. Western countries at this time were prospering economically, and defense initiatives in the US, such as President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, or 'Star Wars'), further weakened Soviet morale as they were unable to compete effectively.

Anti-communist movements gained strength in communist eastern European countries, leading to the revolutions of 1989. By the start of the next decade, the constituent countries of the USSR began to break away from the country, and with few exceptions, Gorbachev did not use force to put down the revolts. Surviving a coup attempt by communist hardliners but unable to save the USSR, Gorbachev resigned December 25, 1991, ending the Soviet Union.

His legacy since the end of his rule has largely been largely positive in the West, praising his openness to the outside world and allowing the Soviet Union to dissolve relatively peacefully. In Russia, his legacy has been more negative, with the main criticism being that he allowed the Soviet Union to collapse. Russia, while still a powerful country, no longer plays the pivotal role it did as the USSR and faces numerous economic and geopolitical challenges as a post-Soviet country.

 

Democratic Fortunes Improve After Recent Victories

 Facing the prospect of significant losses in the November midterm elections, Democrats’ fortunes may have improved if recent election results are any indication. Along with an increase in President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, Democrats have expressed more confidence that they will keep the Senate majority and possibly keep their House majority.

The most notable recent indication the Republicans may not have a lock on Congressional control after the midterms are the results of the special US House election in New York. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro, 51.1% to 48.7%, in the 19th congressional district, slightly overperforming Biden’s performance in 2020. In the New York’s 23rd, Republican Joe Sempolinski won 6.5 percentage points, underperforming Trump’s 11-point victory in 2020.

In Kansas, voters rejected by a double-digit margin to allow the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion in the state.

Biden’s approval ratings have also improved in recent weeks, though they still remain negative.

 

Manchin and Schumer Announce Reconciliation Deal

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to revive a slimmed down version of the ‘Build Back Better Act’ that Manchin had rejected in December 2021. Perhaps most surprisingly, the revived deal includes climate change expenditures and tax increases that Manchin had claimed he had ruled out earlier this month following months of negotiations between him and Schumer. Any revised deal had been expected only to include an extension of Obamacare health care plan subsidies and a drug pricing negotiation package aimed at reducing the cost of prescription drugs.

The deal now includes a minimum tax rate on corporations of 15% of their book profit, preventing them from using depreciation expenses to reduce their tax rate below 15%. It also eliminates the carried interest loophole.

Perhaps the most controversial part of the bill is the $80 billion given to the IRS over the next 10 years, the bulk of which will be used for increased audits in an attempt to raise revenue for the federal government. Proponents of the plan, such as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), claim the increased audits will catch high income tax cheats and will pay for themself. Opponents, including most Republicans, claims the IRS will target ordinary taxpayers to raise the revenue, especially the self-employed. The bill’s language does not currently limit the IRS’s increased enforcement budget to only audits on high income/high net worth individuals or corporations.

This plan will need the support of all 50 Democratic senators to pass the Senate. Moderate Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has not yet announced her position.

 

Kentucky Floods Kill at Least 26

Heavy rains in Kentucky this past week caused massive flooding that has claimed the lives of at least 26 people, according to Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D). As many as 37 remain unaccounted for as rescuers attempt to access affected areas, efforts that have been hampered by damage to roads and bridges.

A dozen shelters were opened for flood victims, with least 388 residents taking refuge there Sunday.

The flooding has swept homes off their foundations and sweeping debris for hundreds of yards.

More rain is expected for many of the affected areas in Kentucky, further threatening residents already struggling to recover.

Map showing rainfall totals in Kentucky from 7/25

through 7/29. The heaviest rainfall totals, in red, were 

in eastern Kentucky.

US Enters Recession after Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth

The US economy officially entered recession in the second quarter of 2022, after official estimates showed the GDP, a measure of total economic output, declining at 0.9% rate in Q2. It follows a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

The Biden administration downplayed the decline and refused to say that the US was in recession, touting the low unemployment rate (3.6%) and strong consumer spending. While two consecutive quarters of economic decline is the typical definition of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research also makes their own call whether the US economy is in recession.

 

Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

The Supreme Court issued their decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization last Friday, overturning the previous Supreme Court decisions Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, allowing states to ban abortions within their jurisdictions. The previous decisions that were overturned had found that a constitutional right to abortion had existed and prevented states from banning it.

The court’s decision in Dobbs was praised by pro-life, anti-abortion rights activists who had long sought to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling. Up to 26 states are expected to ban abortions or greatly limit the ability to obtain one.

Pro-choice, pro-abortion rights activists opposed the decision, calling it a threat to women’s rights and promising federal action to preserve abortion rights, such as access to abortion pills and possibly allowing abortions on federal lands in states that ban it.

President Biden has criticized the ruling and has said that he supports codifying a nationwide right to abortion into federal law. Such legislation would require creating an exception to the filibuster rule in the Senate or scrapping the filibuster altogether. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), while supportive of abortion rights, are opposed to such a move.

Some opponents of the Dobbs ruling are calling for changes to the Supreme Court, with some going so far as to call it ‘illegitimate’ and calling for new justices to be added to the court to balance out its conservative lean. Three of the five justices who voted to overturn Roe were appointed by former President Trump during his term.

 

Democrats Attempt Last Push for Build Back Better Revival

Democrats are working to pass a slimmed down version of the Build Back Better bill that failed to pass last year, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) negotiating with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), whose opposition sunk the bill last time, to agree to a smaller package focused on tax increases, deficit reduction, and climate spending, among other proposals.

Manchin and Schumer are reportedly close to a deal to allow the federal government to negotiate drug prices and limit price increases to the inflation rate. Such a proposal will need to be approved by the Senate parliamentarian to include in the reconciliation bill, which will allow Democrats to pass the bill by a simple majority and without any Republican support.

Any package will need the support of all Democrats in the Senate, including moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who has signaled her opposition in the past to raising certain taxes.

Senate Minority Leader (R-KY) sent a tweet Thursday saying that Republicans will not help move forward a bill aimed at competing with China so long as Democrats are pursuing the reconciliation package.

 

Supreme Court Issues Flurry of Conservative Opinions in End of Term

The Supreme Court issued several other notable rulings widely seen as wins for conservatives:

· NYSRPA v. Bruen: Struck down a New York state that required gun permit applicants to show a reason for why they needed to carry a gun

· West Virginia v. EPA: Limits the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate greenhouse gas emissions absent further congressional action

· Kennedy v. Bremerton School District: Coach fired for praying during school game had right to do so under 1st Amendment

 

Uvalde School Shooting Raises Questions, Calls for Gun Control

The devastating shooting last week that claimed the lives of 19 students and 2 teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, has led to renewed calls by gun control proponents to control firearm sales and availability. Gun rights supporters have criticized those calls, saying that such measures would not have a major effect on public safety and would erode constitutional rights.

Questions remain over the police response to the shooting. Uvalde police delayed entering the school to engage the shooter, with much of the scrutiny on the chief of police for the Uvalde Consolidate School District, Peter Arredondo. Arredondo is believed to have issued the order for officers not to engage with the shooter inside the school, allegedly believing that he had barricaded himself and was no longer a threat to students. Arredondo has also reportedly stopped cooperating with a state investigation into his response.

Monday saw the first of the many funerals for the victims of the shooting. Services are expected to continue into mid-June.

 

 

 

Clinton Campaign Lawyer Acquitted of Lying to the FBI

Lawyer for the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign Michael Sussmann was acquitted by a jury in federal court Tuesday, ending a two-week trial in which he was accused of lying to the FBI.

The indictment of Sussmann was part of John Durham’s investigation into the origin of the narrative of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative. The indictment accused Sussmann of lying to the FBI in 2016 when he told FBI General Counsel James Baker that he was not representing a client when discussing his allegation that the Trump campaign was working with Russia. Sussmann was working for the Clinton campaign at the time.