Trump Makes First Public Appearance Since Leaving Office at CPAC

Former President Donald Trump appeared publicly for the first time since leaving office in January, giving a speech at CPAC in Orlando, Florida. During the speech he said he will not establish a new political party, rather focusing on influencing the Republican Party. He also broke with recent tradition, directly criticizing President Joe Biden’s presidency, saying, “Joe Biden has had the most disastrous first month of any president in modern history.”

Trump won the presidential straw poll with 55%, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis  coming in second, winning 21%. While DeSantis had a home field advantage, with CPAC being held in Florida rather than its usual location in National Harbor, Maryland, it could signal that DeSantis, a staunch Trump ally, could become a strong opponent to Trump should both run in 2024.

 

House Passes Stimulus Bill, Faces Uncertainty over Minimum Wage

The House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Saturday. The bill includes measures related to increased funding for COVID testing, school funding, stimulus checks, and assistance for  rent and food. In addition, it extends unemployment benefits and provides money to states to fund their liabilities.

The bill also contains language to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next several years. However, this clause will have to be removed if the Senate wishes to pass the bill under reconciliation, which would allow the bill to become law with only 51 votes, rather than the 60 votes needed to end debate and pass the bill. The Senate parliamentarian ruled this past week that the minimum wage increase could not be included in a reconciliation bill because it did not directly affect government revenues and expenses. Proponents of the minimum wage increase, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), argued that the minimum wage increase would increase government revenue through more taxes because of the increased wages paid and is thus eligible.

Republicans in the Senate have signaled opposition to the minimum wage increase, saying it will increase unemployment as employers would lay of workers for whom they could no longer afford their wages. Some moderate Democratic senators have also signaled opposition, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has said that the $15 minimum is too high for his state’s employers to pay for many of their workers.

President Biden has seemed to concede that the minimum wage clause will not be included in the reconciliation bill, promising to take it up as a stand alone bill in the future.

 

Retail Investors Take Wall Street for a Ride

Several Wall Street firms faced the prospect of massive losses this week as a result of their short positions in several stocks, most notably in GameStop Corporation. Individual investors, encouraged most notably by users on the Reddit forum, or subreddit, WallStreetBets, purchased shares in GameStop and other stocks facing short positions to punish those shorting the stock as well as provide a boost to those companies.

Short selling occurs when an investor borrows a stock from another investor or brokerage, usually for a fee, and sells it immediately after. The investor expects the stock to decrease in price, and the investor hopes to repurchase the stock and return it to the original holder. The profit to the investor is the sale price minus the repurchase price minus the borrowing fee. However, if the stock increases in value, the investor will have to repurchase the stock at a greater price than which he sold it, and the losses can be theoretically unlimited.

Several brokerages, including Robinhood, blocked purchases on Thursday for WallStreetBets’ favored stocks, prompting criticism from investors as well as government officials.

 

Protests Erupt in Russia over Poisoning and Arrest of Opposition Leader

Russian authorities have detained more than 5,000 people after demonstrations erupted across the country after opposition leader, Alexei Nalvany, was poisoned last year and arrested this month. Mysterious poisonings and assassinations have plagued opponents to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule in the past.

Nalvany was poisoned with a nerve agent in August 2020, falling ill on a flight. Nalvany recovered but was arrested on January 17 after returning to Russia, accused of violating terms of a suspended jail sentence.

 

Biden Works to Advance His Agenda in His First Days

President Biden has begun pushing his agenda in his first days as president, issuing numerous executive orders and laying out his administration’s plan for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

Biden has already issued more than three dozen executive orders that cover issues including abortion, immigration and border security, economic regulations, COVID-19, criminal justice, and climate change. The pace of Biden’s executive orders is largely unprecedented this early in one’s presidency, with presidents previously spreading their first executive orders, especially over more controversial matters, over several months.

While Republicans have predictably criticized Biden’s orders, many of which reverse or rollback former President Trump’s own executive orders, some Democrats have also said that the administration should focus on legislative action to increase the scope of change as well as make such changes more permanent. Executive orders can easily be reversed by future administrations and cannot change or add to existing legislation.

Pushing through his agenda in Congress in the coming weeks could prove difficult for the president. He faces an evenly split Senate where Vice President Kamala Harris would cast a tie-breaking vote and a House of Representatives with a slim Democratic majority. In addition, the next few weeks are likely to be consumed with the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump, who was impeached just before his term ended over his alleged role in encouraging rioters who broke into and occupied the Capitol building on January 6. Regular Senate business is likely to be postponed or curtailed during trial proceedings.

 

Joe Biden Sworn in as 46th President

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. has been sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. He takes office as the oldest president in American history after he defeated incumbent Republican Donald Trump, who conceded defeat this month.

His running mate, Kamala Harris, has become the first woman to become Vice President, as well as the first black and Asian-American to take that office. She is the second Vice President to have significant non-white ancestry, after Charles Curtis, Calvin Coolidge's vice president.

Biden emphasized unity in his inaugural speech, citing a need for a more constructive, less divisive political climate to address the challenges the country faces.

Hard Year Begets New Challenges

The year 2020, with its plethora of challenges from all aspects of life, may not be missed by many. The most notable challenge, the coronavirus pandemic, will carry on into 2021 (and perhaps beyond that). The resulting economic downturn has affected millions, with many facing reduced hours, layoffs, and/or challenges from remote work.

 The heated US election season is essentially over, but the political polarization that begat it remains a force in American life.

This year had the most active Atlantic basin hurricane season on record with several destructive storms making landfall. Western US forests burned in the latter half of the year, which followed massive fires in Australia.

What will 2021 bring? Perhaps just a small improvement from this past year will make it seem better by comparison, though many of the underlying challenges plaguing 2020 will almost certainly continue into 2021 and even into the rest of the 2020s.

 

Attack on Airport in Yemen Leaves Over Two Dozen Dead

 Explosions and gunfire rocked an airport in Aden, Yemen on Wednesday, killing at least 25 as members of a new Saudi-backed government arrived. One government officials, a deputy minister of public works, was killed.

The attack comes amid a county gripped in conflict, as the Iran-backed Houthis continue to hold a large swath of the nation as other separatist groups try to claim control. Saudi Arabia has been a major player in the conflict, opposing the Iran-backed Houthi group. The Yemen conflict is part of a broader power struggle in the Middle East between Sunni governments, including Saudi Arabia, and Shia Iran.

 

Vaccine Rollout Begins

The long-awaited coronavirus vaccines rolled out publicly this month, with three major ones approved by government regulators. This follows months of clinical trials and some doubt whether such vaccines would be ready by the year’s end. The rollouts  have not been without their challenges, however, as governments work to get the pandemic under control.

Pfizer’s vaccine was the first to be announced as clinically effective and safe, followed closely by Moderna’s vaccine, which uses new messenger RNA technology to create immunity. The challenges of these two vaccines, and from some others that will follow, include the need for two doses of the vaccine to be given days apart and the need for cold storage. Pfizer’s must be stored at temperatures hat are colder than Antarctica (around 70 Celsius), while Moderna’s must be kept at temperatures closer to a regular freezer (-20 Celsius).

Another vaccine, developed by researchers at the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, does not require the cold temperatures that Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines need and can instead be stored in a standard refrigerator. The United Kingdom has approved the AstraZeneca vaccine for use in the country, and this vaccine will likely be approved in other countries over time.

Vaccine immunizations are currently prioritized to healthcare workers and those at severe risk of complications, such as the elderly and immunosuppressed. Throughout 2021, as more vaccine doses are created and logistical issues sort themselves out, a greater share of the population, including healthy people with no pre-existing conditions, will begin receiving doses of the vaccine.

 

Biden Builds His Future Administration as Trump Fights Results

President-elect Joe Biden has begun fleshing out his cabinet for when he takes office in January. Biden has announced former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken as his pick for secretary of state. He has announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to serve as treasury secretary, who, if confirmed, will be the first woman in that position. Alejandro Mayorkas, a former federal prosecutor and Obama administration official, will serve as secretary of Homeland Security.

Other cabinet-level personnel that Biden has already announced include Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence and Neera Tanden to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Most of Biden’s picks are seen as part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, with some in the party criticizing the relative lack of progressive picks.

While Biden’s election victory has been called by all major networks and most states have certified their results, President Donald Trump has continued to press forward with his challenges to the results. His campaign has alleged voter fraud and misconduct related to the election, though no evidence has come forward to substantiate these claims. Trump has also accused the FBI of ignoring voter fraud allegations.

While Trump lost the election, Republicans gained seats in the House, just several seats short of retaking the majority, in contrast to most prior political predictions that saw the Democrats taking more seats. Meanwhile, the Senate hangs in the balance as Democrats must take the two seats in Georgia to take the majority. Biden won Georgia but the state has been Republican-leaning the past few decades.

 

Coronavirus Pandemic Reaches Highest Levels This Month

Coronavirus cases skyrocketed this past month in the United States, with several days of the month posting record infection numbers. While cases numbers have stopped climbing in recent days, the massive increase this month again put stress on health systems and led politicians scrambling to respond.

Many of the COVID-19 hotspots this time were in rural areas in the middle of the country. Previous hotspots in the US had mostly been in urban areas in large states.

The ongoing pandemic has continued to stress certain sectors. Restaurants and bars struggle as government mandates limit the number of customers able to be served in addition to public skepticism of the safety of eating out. Meanwhile public transportation systems faced greatly diminished ridership, diminishing their often already stressed finances.

Across the world, coronavirus case increase led to varying responses. Some nations, like the UK and Turkey, renewed curfew and lockdown measures in an effort to stem the virus.

Several companies, including Pfizer and Moderna, have announced success in their vaccine trials, bringing hope of a general vaccine sometime in 2021.

 

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

Interesting Data Points from This Month's Election

While President Trump continues to challenge the legitimacy of the this month's election and President-elect Biden begins the transition effort, the election has provided some interesting data points that election data wonks and otherwise political junkies can pore over for months to come.

Death of the Bellwethers 

Several counties across the US have been excellent bellwethers in recent elections, voting for the ultimate winner of the election (in the electoral college, not necessarily in the popular vote). The most accurate one was Vigo County, Indiana, home of Terra Haute, which has voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1956 on.

 Until 2020. 

And it wasn't alone. In fact, most notable bellwether counties failed to predict Joe Biden's win. Hidalgo County, NM has predicted all elections successfully since 1972, but voted for Trump this year. Other counties that failed included Essex County, VT, Westmoreland County, VA, Coos County, NH, and Darlington County, SC, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Successful bellwether counties included Blaine County, MT, Kent County, DE, and Clallam County, WA, all which voted for Biden this year after voting for Trump in 2016. 

So why the shift? These counties tend to be low-population with a rural character, areas in which Trump has performed well and have been shifting towards Republicans for years. In the case of Kent County, Delaware, while it is the least populous county in the state, it contains the state capital of Dover and is in Biden's home state. Vigo County, Indiana, meanwhile seems to be swinging towards Republicans. It was not particularly close in either 2016 or 2020, and voted for a Republican governor for the first time in decades.

In conclusion, the failure of the bellwethers the cycle may be a one-off, or a signal of a long term political shift.

Longtime Republican Counties Turning Blue

Orange County, CA made news in 2016 after voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, making the former secretary of state the first Democrat to win the county since 1936. Orange County for years was synonymous with Southern Californian conservatism and was the bedrock of Republican support in the Golden State. 

The affluent suburban shift to Democrats over the past few cycles accelerated under Trump, with Orange County perhaps the most visible example. Orange County shifted even more Democratic in 2020 in the presidential race, though two Orange County House seats flipped back to the Republicans after being taken by Democrats in 2018 (these two seats were handily won by incumbent Republicans in 2016). 

Other traditionally Republican counties shifted Blue for the first time in decades. Duval County, FL, which is essentially conterminous with Jacksonville, voted Republican for the first time since 1976. Duval went for Trump in 2016, but voted for Democratic candidates for the Senate and the governorship in 2018. Likewise for Seminole County, FL a suburban county outside Orlando, which voted Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1948.

Even more dramatic was Riley County, KS, home of Manhattan and Kansas State University. The county voted Democratic for the first time ever. While Riley County has voted Democratic (sometimes by large margins) in state races, its strong Union sympathies set the stage to keep the county Republican for a century and a half. 

Tarrant County, TX, home of Fort Worth, voted Democratic (albeit by less than 1%) for the first time since 1956. Maricopa County, AZ, home of Phoenix, went blue for the first time since 1948. These were the last counties with over 1 million people to have voted Republican in 2016. 

Oklahoma County, OK, home of Oklahoma City, remained Republican by only 1.1 percentage points. In 2016 the county voted Republican by 10.5%, though third parties won 7.1% that cycle. This time around it was only 2.7%. 

In all these counties, the blue trend mostly comes from the shift in college-educated voters voting more Democratic, while Republicans have found a new base among voters without college degrees.

Republican Surprise in Hispanic-Majority Areas of Texas

South Texas, with strong Hispanic majorities in most counties, has been an ancestrally Democratic region, rarely supporting Republicans since statehood. While Biden held on to the most populous counties of Hidalgo (home of McAllen and Edinburg) and Cameron (Brownsville and Harlingen), its margins in both counties were diminished from 2016, moving against the predominant Democratic shift (to a varying degree) across most counties in the US from 2016. E

Even more dramatic were the results in less populous but even more Hispanic counties such as Zapata and Starr. Zapata voted Republican for the first time in 2016, with Trump besting Biden by 5.5 points. Starr remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by 5.1 points, though Clinton beat Trump by 60.2 pints in 2016, a 55.1 swing to the Republicans, the largest in the nation.

Traditionally Democratic-leaning counties of Val Verde (in West Texas, home of Del Rio), Jim Wells (home of Alice), Reeves (also in West Texas), LaSalle, and Frio all flipped GOP this cycle. Other Democratic counties like Maverick (home of Eagle Pass) and Webb (Laredo) remained Democratic with reduced margins. 

Trump's performance likely helped Tony Gonzalez keep Will Hurd's seat for the GOP in Texas's 23rd Congressional District and likely nearly flipped Texas's 15th (based in McAllen), which no national observers had rated competitive.

A similar circumstance occurred in 2004 with George Bush's landslide victory in the state, even narrowly carrying Cameron, which Trump failed to do this time around. Bush's strong showing in this part of the state likely derives from the favorite son effect and his strong showing among Hispanics. Trump also performed relatively strongly with Hispanics in 2020, and it remains to be seen whether these results indicate a long-term shift to the GOP or was a one-off event. 

Trump's Improvement Among Hispanics Nationally

Exit polls have Trump winning around 32-36% of the Hispanic vote, better than the approximately 29% he received in 2016. 

In Miami-Dade County, FL, home to Miami, Trump dramatically improved his performance among Hispanics from 2016, especially among Cuban-Americans. While he did not win this large county of 2.7 million, his losing margin was only approximately 7 points, versus the 29 point margin by which he lost in 2016. A similar but much smaller improvement for Trump was seen in Osceola County, FL, outside Orlando, which has a large Puerto Rican population, a demographic that tends to vote more Democratic than other Hispanic groups.

In relatively small Imperial County, CA, home of Brawley and El Centro, Biden managed to keep the county Democratic, though Trump managed to cut off about 15 points off the margin of victory for the Democrats from 2016. Imperial is approximately 80% Hispanic.

The Black Vote

The black vote experienced less dramatic movement than the Hispanic vote, though both sides made vocal appeals to the black Americans ahead of the election. As an example, DeKalb County, GA, which is heavily African-American and part of the Atlanta metro area, moved approximately 4 points to the Democrats compared to 2016. 

National exit polling had Trump doing around the same with black voters as 2016, with some showing black support for Trump slightly up. Edison's 2016 exit polling had Clinton beating Trump 88 to 8 among black voters, with 4 percent for third parties, and CNN's 2020 exit poll had Biden beating Trump 87 to 12. If these numbers are true, the overall percentage point movement is small, though for the Republicans would represent a 33.33% increase in their percentage increase of black voters.