Democratic Field Narrows, Republican’s Grows by One

The 2020 Presidential field continues to change as several Democrats drop out of the race, while one Republican joins in an attempt to deny President Donald Trump the GOP nomination.

This month, four major candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race: former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton, and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. None of the candidates managed to gain major support during any of the campaign, with Moulton never making the debate stage and Gillibrand (the highest-polling one of the group) only scoring 3% in one poll and usually averaging only 1%.

This still leaves well over a dozen candidates in the mix, though only three, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warrant, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, poll in the double digits. The rest, including relatively high polling candidates California Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are in the single digits.

However, recent polls have indicated that any of those candidates has a polling advantage over Trump in the general, though the election is still over a year away, and the political environment can easily shift more in favor (or even less in favor) of Trump’s reelection prospects.

Meanwhile, former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois announced a longshot bid to challenge Trump for the GOP primary this week. Walsh, once a strong Trump supporter and a conservative firebrand, has come under fire for controversial and racially tinged statements made in his past.

Democrats Debate Again, 10 Yesterday and 10 Today

The race for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 continues after ten Democratic candidates met in Detroit last night for the second primary debate, with ten more to go tonight.

Last night’s debate featured the two highest-polling progressive candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Other relatively high-polling candidates (though still in the single digits) were South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

The debate demonstrated sharp differences between the progressive wing, led by Sanders and Warren, and the relatively more moderate wing, including Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Some of these differences included whether to abolish private health insurance in favor of government-run insurance, providing free health care to those residing in the US illegally, and decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Places of agreement between both camps included providing a government-run insurance program (regardless of whether private insurance would still be allowed), instituting more gun control, and placing higher taxes on wealthy Americans.

Ten more candidates will debate tonight, including two other high-polling candidates, the frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden is considered relatively more moderate than many of the other candidates (though still liberal by national standards), and will likely face progressive criticisms from Harris and other candidates.

Another Heat Wave Strikes Europe

Another heat wave has stricken the European continent, the second major one this year. At least six deaths, five in France and one in Belgium, have been blamed on the phenomenon, which is caused by a meteorological air pressure block that has maintained the hot temperatures for over a week.

Temperatures in France have reached as high as 108.7 °F. (42.6 °C) and 107.2 °F. (41.8 °C) in Belgium. These temperatures have led to the deaths of hundreds of farm animals, whose ventilation systems failed in the heat’s wake. The heat wave has also raised river temperatures, which has led to a decline in their use for cooling systems, wishing to maintain conditions to protect aquatic life.

In the UK, trains have been ordered to maintain slower speeds to protect against buckling railways, and concerns have been raised over the stability of the Notre Dame Cathedral in France. The cathedral, damaged by a major fire earlier this year, has vulnerable structures which could break further because of the heat’s effect on water-logged materials.

Strong Heat Waves Hit Around the World

This summer has come with massive heat waves around the world. One in India and Pakistan has killed at least 184 in one east Indian state, with dozens more likely killed across the region. This heat wave, which is still ongoing since its start in May, has led to record-breaking heat, with the highest temperature recorded as just over 123 °F. in Churu, India.

Problems in India have been exasperated by water shortages, much caused by delays and irregularities in its monsoon season, which begins in June.

Another heat wave has stricken Europe, with at least thirteen people across the region dying as result of drownings in attempts to keep cool and heat strokes. France recorded its all-time record high of 114.6 °F, and many other countries experienced abnormal heat often in excess of 90 °F.

The European heat wave is caused by a high pressure system and winds coming from the Sahara Desert, one of the hottest regions on earth.

The frequency and severity of future heat waves is likely to intensify as earth’s global temperatures continue to rise.

Democrats Open Up Primary Season with First Debate

NBC hosted the first Democratic debate on June 26 and June 27, with twenty of the twenty-four declared major candidates participating. Ten candidates debated each day, and though NBC said the order was randomly allocated, four of the five top-polling candidates went on the second day, including frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden.

The first debate, in which Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (currently second place in polls) participated, mostly focused on the candidates introducing themselves to the American people and what their main interests are. For example, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan focused on winning back working class voters while Washington Gov. Jay Inslee focused on climate change, which he has made a central issue to his campaign. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke was the subject of repeated attacks, most notably from Texas Rep. Julian Castro, who criticized his immigration plan, most notably in that it would not change unauthorized border crossings from a criminal to a civil offense (similar to parking tickets).

The second debate featured even sharper criticisms against each other, with Biden the most frequent target. California Rep. Eric Swalwell criticized Biden’s longevity in politics and argued its was time for someone new to be the party’s standard bearer. California Senator Kamala Harris criticized Biden’s earlier statements that spoke favorably of former segregationist politicians (though not their positions; his comments were on their “civility”) and his opposition to mandatory busing, a program aimed at integrating schools. Biden refused to apologize for his position on busing and also did not walk back his earlier comments on working with the segregationist senators.

Opposition Candidate Wins Istanbul Mayoral Redo

In a sharp rebuke to Turkey’s ruling AKP party and its autocratic leader, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the residents of Istanbul voted for opposition party candidate Ekrem Imamoglu over AKP candidate Binali Yildirim. Imamoglu, of the CHP party, had won the original election held in March by a narrow margin; however, Turkey’s electoral commission, under pressure from Erdogan, voided the election. The gamble failed to pay for Erdogan, however, when voters voted for Imamoglu by a 9% margin on June 23, versus the .16% margin on March 31. Combined with defeats in other large Turkish cities, including the capital Ankara, it marks the one of the largest rebukes to Erdogan’s rule since he took power in 2003.

Robert Mueller Speaks Publicly for the First Time Since Investigation Started

Former Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller spoke publicly Wednesday to speak on the findings in his report on Russian intervention in the 2016 presidential election, alleged Trump campaign collusions with those efforts, and possible obstruction efforts by President Trump of the investigation.

Mueller offered no new information on his findings. He reiterated that the report did not find criminal activity between the Trump campaign and Russia, but could not says the Trump campaign did not commit any obstruction. Mueller said once again that his investigation was constrained by Department of Justice guidelines that prohibit the indictment of a sitting president.

Mueller refused to take questions and said he would not engage in hypotheticals. Chief among them is whether Mueller would indict Trump if he were not the president. The report said that, in addition to the DOJ guidelines, such charges may be difficult to prove given the president’s wide latitude to appoint and dismiss officials. Most evidence of obstruction given in Mueller’s report was related to Trump’s failed attempts to fire officials overseeing the investigation.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Wins Second Term

Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a second term after his BJP party captured a resounding victory in the Indian general elections. The second largest party, the Indian National Congress (INC), failed to win 55 seats (it won 52 out of 543 elected seats), leaving the Lok Sabha without an official opposition for the second time in a row.

While Modi’s party suffered defeats in state assembly elections earlier this year, the BJP managed to increase the number of seats it holds from the 2014 elections, where Modi won his first term, succeeding INC Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

European Politics Shaken Up with Elections, Brexit Drama

Establishment center-right and center-left parties lost support in the European Parliament elections last week. While the two blocs still make up 48.2% of the seats, they lost their majority in the body for the first time since its inception. Liberal parties and non-establishment Greens and populist Eurosceptic parties also saw gains.

Focusing on one country, in the United Kingdom, these elections were not even expected to happen just a few months ago. The country, which voted to leave the EU in June 2016, has stalled in its progress to accomplish that goal, with disagreements arising over the terms of the trade deal with the EU after it leaves the bloc as well over its border with Ireland.

The party with the greatest vote share in the UK was the newly-formed Brexit Party, created by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, formerly of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). While the Brexit Party just under 31% the vote, two parties that favor staying in the EU and even having a second referendum on the question, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, saw a combined 31.4% of the vote. These results point to a strongly polarized electorate. The two longtime establishment parties, the Conservatives and Labor, gathered 13.6% and 8.8% respectively.

British Prime Minister Theresa May announced she will resign following the poor result of her Conservative Party which will only walk away with four seats. May will formally leave office once her successor is determined by Conservative voters.

Biden Enters Democratic Presidential Race on Top

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced last Thursday his entry into the crowded field for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Biden currently faces at least 20 other major candidates, as well as some others who may join the race, such as Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

Biden currently tops the field in polling, leading second place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders by 13.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. No other candidates currently break double digits, though some, like South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have seen the poll numbers rise over the past month, with Buttigieg starting near zero when he announced to now around 8.4%. Some, such as Texas Sen. Beto O’Rourke, have seen declines, with O’Rourke now polling around 5.6%, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and California Sen. Kamala Harris.

With the nearest electoral contest not until the start of 2020, polls are bound to change. However, the large polling lead that Biden currently has likely indicates a strong early advantage over other contestants, and is higher than Jeb Bush’s polling lead in the early Republican primary polls in 2016 (Bush eventually only won less than 1% of the vote after withdrawing in February 2016).

Sanders’s high poll numbers may also be an indication of winning potential, as he has kept a large share of his support from 2016, even with other candidates this cycle echoing his policies. If he manages to maintain this support and add to it when other progressive challengers inevitably drop out, his path to the nomination may become clearer.

Mueller Report Released

Attorney General William Barr released the Mueller Report on April 18. The report, which had portions of it redacted to protect information related to ongoing investigations and grand jury testimony, detailed Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election, the investigation into whether the Trump campaign conspired with them and whether President Trump attempted to obstruct justice. 

The report says Mueller’s team did not find that the Trump campaign criminally conspired with the Russian government. It did not make a judgment whether the Trump campaign obstructed justice, however. It listed actions by Trump that Mueller viewed as evidence that obstruction may have occurred, such as firing FBI Director James Comey and telling then-White House Counsel Don McGahn to fire Mueller, but also wrote that such actions do fall under executive constitutional authority and thus can be hard to prove conclusively as obstruction. In addition, Mueller cited existing Department of Justice guidelines that do not allow indictments of sitting presidents.

Democratic Race Heats Up as Biden Faces First Allegation

The Democratic race for president has become more competitive than before with well over a dozen major entrants into the race, with former and current US senators governors, representatives, mayors, and executive officials in the race, with even more expected to enter in the coming weeks. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has not formally announced his entry into the race but is widely expected to do so, leads nationwide polling, usually getting around 30% of the vote.

Biden’s fortune may have turned over the weekend, however, as a former Nevada state legislator accused him of unwanted kissing and fondling when she was running for lieutenant governor in 2014. Biden has denied the allegation, saying he considers himself to have never behaved inappropriately with women in the past. His past interactions with women, however, may return to haunt him, with many observers pointing out his proclivity for touching women’s and shoulders and moving his head close to theirs, many of these instances captured on videos and in photographs.

The first primaries and caucuses are still almost a year away. The Republicans are not expected to have a competitive primary, with incumbent Donald Trump a prohibitive favorite against any primary challenger.

Mueller Report Complete, AG Says He Will Release It

A dramatic chapter in US political history has come to an end as Special Counsel Robert Mueller turned in his final report to US Attorney General William Barr, detailing his findings on Russian meddling in the 2016 election, alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, and whether the president obstructed justice. The full report has not been released, but a four-page summary released by Barr says the 300-page report concluded there was no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia and there was  insufficient evidence that Trump obstructed justice, leaving the choice to prosecute the president to the Department of Justice (DOJ). Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein both agreed that there was insufficient evidence to prosecute Trump and will not do so, with both not considering whether prosecuting a sitting president is appropriate. Their decision effectively ends the president’s legal worries on that front.

Democrats criticized Barr for not releasing the report, calling for the full publication of the report, a position that has bipartisan support according to polls and a recent House vote on the matter. Barr has said he will release the report in April once the DOJ properly redacts it to prevent the release of classified information.

Trump has claimed complete exoneration on the matter, with Democrats responding the report did not do so, especially on the matter of obstruction. However, given Trump’s repeated claims that his campaign did not collude with the Russians and the report not discovering any evidence of it doing so, the Trump team’s celebration does not appear to be without cause.