Midwestern Air Quality Drops as Canadian Wildfire Smoke Moves South

Midwestern states are facing an onslaught of smoke from Canadian wildfires, experiencing the same phenomenon that eastern states endured earlier this month. 

Residents of Chicago experienced the worst air quality in the world as 488 wildfires send their smoke into the US, 259 of which are deemed as ‘out of control’ by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center. Other local and state authorities have issued advisories on the hazardous air conditions, advising residents to stay indoors.

Biden, McCarthy Reach Debt Ceiling Deal

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal this past weekend to the raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which would avoid a default on certain federal government obligations, something projected to occur by June 5. The deal caps weeks of negotiation, with Republicans seeking to cap spending levels and roll back increased IRS funding and Democrats seeking to preserve their many of the programs passed in the last congress, most notably certain green energy subsidies.

The debt ceiling deal caps 2024 and 2025 discretionary spending levels based upon 2023 levels, with a 1% increase allowed for 2025. Republicans win’s also included imposing new work requirements on childless, able-bodied Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, as well as also adjust the formula states use to calculate aid as part of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program.

The deal also will cut $1.9 billion in additional IRS appropriation this year, and a further $20 billion is now set to be reallocated in 2024 and 2025. Democrats, who passed an additional $80 billion in IRS funding as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, claim the additional funding passed last year will lead to a net revenue gain by auditing primarily high earners. Republicans in contrast say the additional funding will primarily increase audits on lower- and middle-earners.

The deal will also force the Biden Administration to resume collecting student loan repayments this summer. It does not prevent Biden’s proposal to cancel $10,000 in student loan debt, which is currently in litigation before the Supreme Court.

 

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger Turns 100

Former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger celebrated his 100th birthday Saturday. Kissinger, who served in the Nixon and Ford administrations, is most noted for negotiating a ceasefire in the Vietnam War and engineering the US opening of relations with communist China. After his service, he became a widely sought-after voice on foreign affairs.

Kissinger’s legacy has also been marked with controversy, including his role in the US bombing of Cambodia, support for the Argentinian military junta during the ‘Dirty War’, and support for Augusto Pinochet’s 1973 coup in Chile.

Regulators Reportedly to Take Control of First Republic

First Republic Bank, the large regional bank known for its customer service and high net worth clientele, is reportedly set to be taken over by federal regulators and brought into receivership in the near future. The rumored move comes after over $100 billion in deposits have flowed out of the bank, spurred by depositors unsure about the bank’s stability.

First Republic has faced similar issues as the recently collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, whose unrealized losses on long-term bond holdings combined with deposit outflows led to its collapse. First Republic’s financial instability has led to the collapse of its stock price, which has fallen in three months from $141.01 to $3.51 at Friday’s close. In the case of First Republic’s failure, shareholders would be the last to receive any proceeds from sold assets.

Both JP Morgan Chase and PNC Bank are reportedly interested in buying First Republic. Both banks were part of an earlier consortium of large banks who deposited $30 billion to try to shore up the bank’s finances. 

 

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

The House passed the Republican debt ceiling package Wednesday on a near party line vote, with four GOP defections and all Democrats voting against. The bill would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 billion while reducing discretionary spending by 9%.

President Biden and Senate Democrats have said the bill is dead on arrival. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hopes the bill will bring Biden and Senate leadership to start negotiations. Biden ally Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) has called Republican attempts to use the debt ceiling limit to force spending cuts as ‘hostage negotiations’ and has called for such discussions to be part of regular appropriations talks. 

 

Biden Announces Reelection Campaign

President Joe Biden’s campaign released an announcement video this past week that formally announced his reelection bid in 2024, a move widely expected. Biden enters the race the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with his two announced opponents, self-help author Marianne Williamson and environmental and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polling in the high single digits to low double digits. 

The Republican field, while becoming more crowded, remains  overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and to a lesser extent, the unannounced campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has retained a strong consistent lead over DeSantis throughout the past few months, experiencing a bump following his indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for business falsification charges related to the 2016 hush money payment to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels). DeSantis has a consistent second-place lead, and the only other candidate, unannounced or otherwise, consistently polling in double digits.

Other Republican candidates include former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is running a campaign appealing to her gender and traditional Republican politics, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump’s influence over the GOP, former California gubernatorial candidate and radio host Larry Elder, and technology entrepreneur and political activist Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee and is expected to announce a run in the near future.

 

Bank Failures Send Fear Throughout Economy

The failures of three notable banks linked to the tech and cryptocurrency industries have sparked concerns about the stability of regional banks in the US, some of which may face similar issues to the three.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank all failed during March, with SVB, long considered the main banking partner for Silicon Valley tech firms, becoming the second largest American bank to fail, after Washington Mutual in 2008.

In the case of SVB, the failure was largely the cause of a decline in the value of their bond holdings because of rising interest rates. SVB had bought long-term treasury bonds to increase the rate of return back when interest rates were low. As the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation, the value of SVB’s bond holdings decreased (price moves inversely to yield), leading to large unrealized losses for the bank. As depositors withdrew their cash to cover expenses, SVB was forced to sell their bond holdings at the reduced prices, leading to insufficient capitalization for the bank, which ultimately led to regulators seizing SVB.

 

Former President Donald Trump Indicted by Manhattan Grand Jury

Former US President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury Thursday. Trump is the first president, former or current, to be indicted on a felony charge.

The indictment stems from an October 2016 payment from Michael Cohen, Trump’s then personal lawyer, to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford, better known by her stage name Stormy Daniels, to cover up a 2006 affair between her and Trump. Cohen, who was reimbursed by Trump for the payment, was later convicted for violating campaign finance law for making the payment without it being disclosed as a campaign expenditure. The conviction was part of a larger criminal investigation in which Cohen pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and tax evasion related to his businesses.

The indictment comes amid other probes into Trump’s conduct during his presidency and his post-presidency. He is under investigation by state authorities in Georgia over his alleged attempts to improperly influence election officials in the 2020 election. He also is facing a federal investigation into his handling of classified documents after he left the presidency as well as potential obstruction. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to investigate in the federal case.

Trump is expected to surrender to police on Tuesday next week, where he will be fingerprinted and have his mugshot taken.

One of Trump’s lawyers, Joe Tacopina, is making television appearances defending his client from the alleged charges, also saying that Trump will not take a plea deal in the case.

Republicans have vocally criticized the indictment, accusing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) of political animus. Some congressional Republicans have said they will call on Bragg to testify before Congress regarding the prosecution. Bragg has denied any political motivation for the prosecution. 

Bragg himself is a controversial figure. Elected in 2021, Bragg ran on a progressive platform, promising a less punitive approach to criminal justice focused on rehabilitation rather than punishment. Critics argue his policies are in part responsible for an increase in crime in New York City.

 

East Palestine, OH Residents Grapple With Toxic Fallout

Nearly a month after a Norfolk Southern freight train derailed near the village of East Palestine, Ohio, local residents are still contending with the fallout of the toxic chemicals that were spilled in the initial derailment, as well as those burned in an attempt to clean the area.

After the initial derailment on February 3, officials began evacuations within a 1-mile radius. Three days later on February 6, the vinyl chloride, a toxic, carcinogenic chemical used in the manufacture of PVC, was burned to prevent possible explosions. The evacuation order was lifted on February 9 after Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials reported that the area was safe. However, local residents have reported health issues since that time, and numerous animal deaths have been documented, including thousands of fish and frogs.

Officials hosted a town hall for residents to ask questions. Representatives from Norfolk Southern were set to appear at the event, but the company pulled out at the last minute, citing what they perceived as safety issues.

Grocery chain Giant Eagle has pulled its branded water, which is bottled 25 miles away from the derailment site. Some high school teams have also forfeited games rather than play in the affected region, concerned about possible health effects from the released chemicals.

Some have criticized the state and federal response to the derailment and chemical contamination. While FEMA sent an assistance team, because there was technically no property damage to the residents of the area, it did not qualify as a “major disaster.”

 

US Energy Department: COVID Most Likely Caused by Lab Leak

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) released an updated report this past week on the origins of the coronavirus outbreak, with the department now saying that the pandemic was a result of a leak in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2019. The report says that it has made this judgment with ‘low confidence,’ which means it has low certainty in its claim.

It joins the FBI in federal agencies that believe that the virus escaped from the lab (the FBI has ‘moderate confidence’ in this belief). Four other agencies believe that the pandemic was the result of natural transmission.

China has criticized the DOE report, with Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning claiming that the US is using the lab leak theory to score political points, rather than seek a scientific conclusion. She cited the previous WHO investigation, which had concluded that the virus was likely the result of natural transmission. The WHO’s report has also been criticized, with China accused of obstructing the organization’s investigation.

Winter Storm Leads to Rare California Snow

 A strong winter storm led to snow across the state, along with high winds that took down power lines, causing over 170,000 power outages. Cars were stranded on I-15 because of snow, hail, and strong winds, with snowflakes and hail even reported at the famed Hollywood sign.

The storm caused severe weather across the US, with blizzard conditions reported in Midwestern states and tornado watches issued in several Southern states.

While the storm caused blizzard conditions in some of the country, some areas outside the storm’s path reported record high temperatures.

 

Mishandled Classified Documents Scandal Plague Biden, Trump, Pence

The Biden White House continues to work to limit the political and legal fallout from classified documents dating from his time as vice president found at the Penn Biden Center as well as his personal residence.

Biden’s lawyers first alerted the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) on November 2, 2022, of classified documents found at the Penn Biden Center. NARA alerted the Department of Justice (DOJ), which began investigating the handling of the documents. CBS News reported on January 31 that the FBI searched the Penn Biden center in mid-November 2022, something the White House has not yet revealed.

On January 9, the White House revealed the released information about the document situation while trying to draw differences between Biden’s case and former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents after his presidency. Trump’s Florida residence Mar-a-Lago was raided by the FBI on August 8, 2022, and Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel into Trump’s case on November 18.

Garland would do the same in Biden’s case on January 12.

More documents were reported found in Biden’s Wilmington, Delaware residence on January 11. The FBI later conducted a voluntary search of his residence, finding additional documents.

On January 24, NARA revealed that former Vice President Mike Pence also retained classified documents at his Indiana home, leading to speculation that such mishandling of documents may be widespread among high-ranking government officials.

 

Ice Storms Sweep Across the US

At least 1,800 flights were cancelled as winter storms swept across the US on Tuesday. Icy conditions were responsible for numerous car crashes on roads in Texas, with 7,000 power outages reported across the state.

In Arkansas, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) declared a state of emergency as motorists in the state struggled with icy road conditions as well.

Icy road conditions from the storm are expected to affect several states into Thursday.

 

Pioneering TV Journalist Barbara Walters Dies at 93

Pioneering television journalist Barbara Walters died Friday at 93. Walters' history in media largely coincided with women's involvement in the industry, with Walters breaking many of the barriers female journalists faced.

Walters was born September 25, 1929 in Boston, Massachusetts. She attended Sarah Lawrence University, graduating with a degree in English in 1951. 

Walters began working in advertising before landing a job at NBC's New York affiliate WNBT-TV (now WNBC), where she wrote press releases. 

She joined NBC's The Today Show in 1961, first as a writer before appearing as a 'Today Girl,' where she presented news pieces that were seen as lighter topics. She began doing more serious pieces, and though she was famously prohibited from asking questions to guests until her male cohosts asked their questions, she was finally made cohost of the show in 1974. 

In 1976, she moved to ABC, where she cohosted ABC Evening News until 1978. In 1976, she moderated the final presidential debate between incumbent Gerald Ford and eventual winner Jimmy Carter.

Walter was known for conducting interviews with notable figures including Fidel Castro, Margaret Thatcher, Jiang Zemin, and Monica Lewinsky. 

In 1997, she co-created The View on ABC, and served as co-host until 2014. 

She had her final ABC appearance in 2015 with an interview with then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. Her last public appearance was in 2016. 

She died at home in Manhattan on December 30, 2022. 

Winter Storm Leaves 91 Dead, Leads to Travel Mayhem

 Last week’s Christmas winter storm has left at least 91 dead, with over 2.5 million left without power for at least some period of time.

Many of the US deaths were caused by cold exposure, some of whom were pedestrians who became disoriented when walking outside in blizzard conditions. Some became trapped in their cars and were unable to get to warm shelter. Traffic accidents also claimed several victims.

In Synder, New York, near Buffalo, 56.5 inches of snow fell.

The cold temperatures from the storm spread across the US. Even in Houston, temperatures dropped so low that bats lost their grip on the bridges where they make homes. Volunteers managed to gather the affected bats so they could warm them sufficiently, and afterwards they released the bats back to their bridges.

Millions lost power during the storm. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) began rolling blackouts to prevent more widespread power outages. In Texas, power outages were much more limited than what was seen in the February 2021 winter storm.

The storm also led to mass cancellations of flights, leading to travel mayhem as travelers were stranded in airports trying to get to their destinations before Christmas day. Southwest Airlines was the hardest hit, with the airline experiencing a meltdown of their planning software. Employees were left to manually schedule crews for flights, and customers were forced to spend several hours on hold with customer service agents in attempts to rebook their flights. The US Department of Transportation has launched an investigation into the cancellations.

Smaller GOP Gains Than Expected Lead to Split Congress

The expected red wave, in which Republicans were predicted to make major gains across the country, may not have materialized the way some Republican had hoped, but they did manage to gain the seats needed to take control of the US House of Representatives, ending unified Democratic control of Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats were able to keep their Senate majority and possibly expand it, pending the result of the Georgia’s Senate runoff in December.

So far, 220 seats have been declared won by Republicans in the House, with two seats still uncalled, though Republicans lead in both and are likely to win. However, while gaining control of the House is an undeniable victory for the GOP, their majority (likely 222-213) is smaller than what most were expecting. A GOP majority of at least 230 seats in the next congress would have given their leadership more breathing room for difficult votes. Now, with a narrow majority to contend, passing their favored legislation, or even blocking certain Democratic-backed legislation, will likely prove a more difficult task to manage.

Republicans fell short in their quest to reclaim the Senate majority, losing their Pennsylvania seat and failing so far to pick up any Democratic seats. While Republicans could pick up a seat in Georgia in December should Herschel Walker defeat incumbent Raphael Warnock, that result would lead to a 50-50 split, under which Democrats would still retain control.

The Republicans also fell short of their ambitions in state governments, only picking up one governorship (Nevada) while losing three (Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona).

 

Election Predictions: Election Day 2022

Here are our predictions for the House, Senate, and governor races for today's election:

House

Senate

Governors

Let us know where you agree and disagree in the comments!

GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

Democratic Fortunes Improve After Recent Victories

 Facing the prospect of significant losses in the November midterm elections, Democrats’ fortunes may have improved if recent election results are any indication. Along with an increase in President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, Democrats have expressed more confidence that they will keep the Senate majority and possibly keep their House majority.

The most notable recent indication the Republicans may not have a lock on Congressional control after the midterms are the results of the special US House election in New York. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro, 51.1% to 48.7%, in the 19th congressional district, slightly overperforming Biden’s performance in 2020. In the New York’s 23rd, Republican Joe Sempolinski won 6.5 percentage points, underperforming Trump’s 11-point victory in 2020.

In Kansas, voters rejected by a double-digit margin to allow the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion in the state.

Biden’s approval ratings have also improved in recent weeks, though they still remain negative.

 

Manchin and Schumer Announce Reconciliation Deal

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to revive a slimmed down version of the ‘Build Back Better Act’ that Manchin had rejected in December 2021. Perhaps most surprisingly, the revived deal includes climate change expenditures and tax increases that Manchin had claimed he had ruled out earlier this month following months of negotiations between him and Schumer. Any revised deal had been expected only to include an extension of Obamacare health care plan subsidies and a drug pricing negotiation package aimed at reducing the cost of prescription drugs.

The deal now includes a minimum tax rate on corporations of 15% of their book profit, preventing them from using depreciation expenses to reduce their tax rate below 15%. It also eliminates the carried interest loophole.

Perhaps the most controversial part of the bill is the $80 billion given to the IRS over the next 10 years, the bulk of which will be used for increased audits in an attempt to raise revenue for the federal government. Proponents of the plan, such as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), claim the increased audits will catch high income tax cheats and will pay for themself. Opponents, including most Republicans, claims the IRS will target ordinary taxpayers to raise the revenue, especially the self-employed. The bill’s language does not currently limit the IRS’s increased enforcement budget to only audits on high income/high net worth individuals or corporations.

This plan will need the support of all 50 Democratic senators to pass the Senate. Moderate Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has not yet announced her position.