Monday, October 31, 2022

GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

Crowd Crush in Seoul Leaves At Least 154 Dead

A human crowd crush during Halloween celebrations in Seoul, South Korea left at least 154 dead and injured at least 152 more.

The cause of the incident, the deadliest peacetime disaster in the country since the 2014 ferry sinking killing 306, is still under investigation. Local outlets reported that it may have been caused by people trying to see a yet-to-be identified celebrity in a nearby club.

 

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Wins Election

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, often known mononymously as Lula, won Sunday’s presidential vote to recapture his old position, defeating incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by just under 2 million votes out of nearly 120 million cast, or by around 1.8 percentage points.

The election marks a remarkable comeback for the former two-term president, who led the country from 2003 to 2010. Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff, a fellow member of his left-wing Worker Party (PT), was impeached on corruption charges. Lula himself was convicted on corruption and money laundering charges in 2017, spending 580 days in jail. Lula successfully appealed his conviction, which he and his supporters argued was politically motivated, in 2021, clearing the way for him to run for president in 2022.

Outgoing President Bolsonaro, considered one of the most right-wing current leaders of a democratic country, has not yet conceded the election. While he lost, he outperformed most opinion polls, which had him losing to Lula by 5-10 points.

Monday, September 19, 2022

Queen Elizabeth's Funeral Caps Days of Mourning for Late British Monarch

The world said goodbye to the Queen Elizabeth II on Monday, with heads of state from around the world joining British royalty and politicians at Westminster Abbey. The memorial services, which were part of larger funeral plans decades in the making, were relatively short, in keeping with the queen’s wishes.

Following the service, her casket was taken to Buckingham Palace for a final time before being rolled to Wellington Arch, where it was then transferred to the hearse. Members of the public lined up along the road as her body was taken to Windsor Castle, where a second, smaller service occurred. At this service, the crown, orb, and scepter were removed from atop the casket, and her body was lowered into the chapel. The funeral was concluded later in the day with a private ceremony for her family, in which the queen was buried next to her husband, the late Duke of Edinburgh Prince Philip, and other deceased members of the royal family, including her late father, King George VI, mother, and sister.

The funeral caps ten days of mourning for the queen, who died September 8 after it was reported she was under medical supervision.

 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Queen Elizabeth II: 1926-2022

Queen Elizabeth's seven-decade reign ended September 8, with her death at 96 announced by Buckingham Palace. Her time on the throne spanned 15 prime ministers, from Churchill to Truss, and 14 US presidents, from Truman to Biden. It outlasted the Soviet Union, from Stalin to Gorbachev, and saw both the entry and exit of the UK from the European Union.




While the queen did not take an active role in politics, were seven decades on the throne saw a massive shift in Britain's place in the world: From superpower empire to a lesser great power status with still a major influence on the world. One of the last living links to World War II at the time of her death, she set the record for the longest reigning monarch of the UK and the second longest reigning monarch of a sovereign nation in history, only second to King Louis XIV of France and his 72 years on the throne (the first part of which was a regency given his young age). 

Elizabeth was born on April 21, 1926. Her father, then known as 'Albert,' was not expected to become king, with Edward (who was often called David), the elder brother to Albert, the heir apparent to the then-reigning King George V. Edward ascended to the throne after George V's death in 1936, becoming King Edward VIII.

Her fate turned when Edward VIII abdicated his throne in 1936 to marry American divorcee Wallis Simpson. Albert became King George VI, and she became heir to the throne. George VI led his country through WWII. 

Elizabeth became an honorary member of the women's Auxiliary Territorial Service, training as a driver and a mechanic. She appeared with her father and Prime Minister Winston Churchill on May 8, 1945, on the balcony of Buckingham Palace to celebrate the end of the war in Europe following Germany's surrender. 



In 1947, after Elizabeth turned 21, she married Philip, a member of the Greek and Danish royal families. Philip and Elizabeth had met when she was 13 and he was 18, and they had exchanged letters since. To marry her, Philip gave up his foreign royal titles and became a British subject.

In 1948, their first son, Charles, was born. In 1950, they had their only daughter, Anne.

In 1952, after suffering with health problems largely related to his heavy smoking, George VI died. Elizabeth and Philip were in Kenya at the time, and they immediately returned to the UK. Her formal coronation occurred the following year.

The first two decades of her reign saw a dramatic shift in the role of the UK in geopolitics. Postwar Britain, while still an empire with global influence, faced severe economic challenges in the years that followed, including food rationing until 1954. While economic growth picked up in the 1950s, Britain's status as a superpower eroded, especially in the aftermath of the Suez Crisis in 1956. The 1960s saw a wave of decolonization and independence of the UK's African colonies, starting with Ghana in 1957, and with it, the loss of much of the British Empire. 

While the UK's hard political power declined in this era, these decades saw the rise of Britain's soft cultural power. British popular music was exported throughout the world, with the 'British Invasion' of music to the US, most notably through the Beatles, cementing a greater cultural affinity between the two nations. In 1969, a reality show style documentary, Royal Family, premiered in the UK, which helped bring about their status as not just royals, but celebrities.

The 1970s saw major changes in British politics and economics. Decimalization of the pound occurred in 1971. In 1973, the UK entered the European Union, though it was a more hesitant member and opted out of many of the bloc's programs. The late 1970s saw increased labor disputes, with the winter of 1978 and 1979 termed the 'Winter of Discontent.' These economic issues led to Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives winning a parliamentary majority in 1979 and the ushering in of liberal economic reforms of the 1980s. 

The royal family's image received a large boost with the 1981 'Wedding of the Century': the marriage of Prince Charles and Lady Diana Spencer. While the wedding itself was grand success from a public relations standpoint, the resulting marriage was not. Charles had carried on an extramarital affair with Camilla Shand, who he had dated prior to his marriage with Diana. Diana and he separated in 1992, and they were divorced in 1996. The marriage of her other son, Prince Andrew, also collapsed in 1992, along with the divorce of Anne and her husband. These events, along with a fire in Windsor Castle, led to Elizabeth calling 1992 her 'Annus horribilis,' or horrible year.

Diana later died in a car crash in 1997 in France as her driver tried fleeing the paparazzi. Queen Elizabeth's response was criticized at the time as not sensitive enough. Elizabeth later did a televised speech honoring her memory that allayed some of the criticism.

In 2002, her mother, Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother, the widow of George VI, died at 101. Queen Elizabeth, now the matriarch of the royal family, was often seen as a grandmotherly figure in the last two decades of her rule. Her grandson William, the eldest son of Charles, married Catherine "Kate" Middleton in 2011. 

Queen Elizabeth, known for her humor, participated in the 2012 London Olympics ceremony, acting in a piece with James Bond actor Daniel Craig and having a stunt double dressed as her parachute into the stadium.

Her last decade on the throne saw two major referendums. The first in 2015 saw Scottish independence voted down (a result with which she was reportedly happy, though she did not publicly comment on her preference). The second in 2016 was voters approve the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union. The process of 'Brexit' dominated the country's politics for years until it was finally complete in 2020 after Conservatives won a strong victory in the 2019 parliamentary elections. The resulting parliament approved the terms of the Brexit deal.

Her final years were shadowed by the coronavirus pandemic, which caused the deaths of thousands in the country. The queen herself would contract the disease, though she survived the infection.

Prince Philip, after suffering years of health issues, died in April 2021 at 99. The queen continued working, though her own health issues became more apparent at the time of her Platinum Jubilee earlier this year, which celebrated her 70 years on the throne, the first British monarch to reach that milestone.

Elizabeth had been at Balmoral Castle in Scotland in the weeks preceding her death. She met with Prime Minister Liz Truss to formally invite her to form a government after Truss had won the Conservative leadership contest to replace outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Her meeting with Truss would be the last time the queen would have a public photograph taken.


Drone show at Buckingham Palace for Queen's
Platinum Jubilee
By Amr Vignesh - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=118968536

On September 8, it was announced that she was placed on medical supervision and that her family was traveling to Balmoral Castle to be with her. This sparked speculation that the queen was in her final hours, especially after BBC personalities changed to dark suits (which were part of contingency plans should the queen die). Her death was announced a few hours later.

With her death, Charles, who had been heir apparent for 70 years, became King Charles III. His wife Camilla became queen consort. William became Prince of Wales, with his Catherine becoming Princess of Wales, the first to hold that title since Diana. 

Her funeral will take place on Monday, September 19.