Biden, McCarthy Reach Debt Ceiling Deal

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal this past weekend to the raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which would avoid a default on certain federal government obligations, something projected to occur by June 5. The deal caps weeks of negotiation, with Republicans seeking to cap spending levels and roll back increased IRS funding and Democrats seeking to preserve their many of the programs passed in the last congress, most notably certain green energy subsidies.

The debt ceiling deal caps 2024 and 2025 discretionary spending levels based upon 2023 levels, with a 1% increase allowed for 2025. Republicans win’s also included imposing new work requirements on childless, able-bodied Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, as well as also adjust the formula states use to calculate aid as part of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program.

The deal also will cut $1.9 billion in additional IRS appropriation this year, and a further $20 billion is now set to be reallocated in 2024 and 2025. Democrats, who passed an additional $80 billion in IRS funding as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, claim the additional funding passed last year will lead to a net revenue gain by auditing primarily high earners. Republicans in contrast say the additional funding will primarily increase audits on lower- and middle-earners.

The deal will also force the Biden Administration to resume collecting student loan repayments this summer. It does not prevent Biden’s proposal to cancel $10,000 in student loan debt, which is currently in litigation before the Supreme Court.

 

Turkish President Erdogan Wins New Term

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won reelection as president of Turkey Saturday, defeating his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu 52% to 48% in a runoff. Erdogan’s victory in the election preserves his 20-year rule as Turkey’s head of government, beginning his third decade in power.

Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) also retained its control in the Turkish Parliament, winning a coalition majority with its partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in the May 14 elections. Erdogan himself narrowly fell short of a majority in that election, leading to Sunday’s runoff.

Erdogan, who has strong support from the country’s working class and rural areas, has been a populist force in his two-decade tenure leading the country, often appealing to nationalist and economically populist policies and rhetoric to maintain support. In his victory speech to supporters, he made allusions to Monday’s 570th anniversary of the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople (modern day Istanbul), a pivotal date in Turkey’s history.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger Turns 100

Former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger celebrated his 100th birthday Saturday. Kissinger, who served in the Nixon and Ford administrations, is most noted for negotiating a ceasefire in the Vietnam War and engineering the US opening of relations with communist China. After his service, he became a widely sought-after voice on foreign affairs.

Kissinger’s legacy has also been marked with controversy, including his role in the US bombing of Cambodia, support for the Argentinian military junta during the ‘Dirty War’, and support for Augusto Pinochet’s 1973 coup in Chile.

Regulators Reportedly to Take Control of First Republic

First Republic Bank, the large regional bank known for its customer service and high net worth clientele, is reportedly set to be taken over by federal regulators and brought into receivership in the near future. The rumored move comes after over $100 billion in deposits have flowed out of the bank, spurred by depositors unsure about the bank’s stability.

First Republic has faced similar issues as the recently collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, whose unrealized losses on long-term bond holdings combined with deposit outflows led to its collapse. First Republic’s financial instability has led to the collapse of its stock price, which has fallen in three months from $141.01 to $3.51 at Friday’s close. In the case of First Republic’s failure, shareholders would be the last to receive any proceeds from sold assets.

Both JP Morgan Chase and PNC Bank are reportedly interested in buying First Republic. Both banks were part of an earlier consortium of large banks who deposited $30 billion to try to shore up the bank’s finances. 

 

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

The House passed the Republican debt ceiling package Wednesday on a near party line vote, with four GOP defections and all Democrats voting against. The bill would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 billion while reducing discretionary spending by 9%.

President Biden and Senate Democrats have said the bill is dead on arrival. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hopes the bill will bring Biden and Senate leadership to start negotiations. Biden ally Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) has called Republican attempts to use the debt ceiling limit to force spending cuts as ‘hostage negotiations’ and has called for such discussions to be part of regular appropriations talks. 

 

Biden Announces Reelection Campaign

President Joe Biden’s campaign released an announcement video this past week that formally announced his reelection bid in 2024, a move widely expected. Biden enters the race the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with his two announced opponents, self-help author Marianne Williamson and environmental and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polling in the high single digits to low double digits. 

The Republican field, while becoming more crowded, remains  overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and to a lesser extent, the unannounced campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has retained a strong consistent lead over DeSantis throughout the past few months, experiencing a bump following his indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for business falsification charges related to the 2016 hush money payment to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels). DeSantis has a consistent second-place lead, and the only other candidate, unannounced or otherwise, consistently polling in double digits.

Other Republican candidates include former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is running a campaign appealing to her gender and traditional Republican politics, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump’s influence over the GOP, former California gubernatorial candidate and radio host Larry Elder, and technology entrepreneur and political activist Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee and is expected to announce a run in the near future.

 

Bank Failures Send Fear Throughout Economy

The failures of three notable banks linked to the tech and cryptocurrency industries have sparked concerns about the stability of regional banks in the US, some of which may face similar issues to the three.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank all failed during March, with SVB, long considered the main banking partner for Silicon Valley tech firms, becoming the second largest American bank to fail, after Washington Mutual in 2008.

In the case of SVB, the failure was largely the cause of a decline in the value of their bond holdings because of rising interest rates. SVB had bought long-term treasury bonds to increase the rate of return back when interest rates were low. As the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation, the value of SVB’s bond holdings decreased (price moves inversely to yield), leading to large unrealized losses for the bank. As depositors withdrew their cash to cover expenses, SVB was forced to sell their bond holdings at the reduced prices, leading to insufficient capitalization for the bank, which ultimately led to regulators seizing SVB.