Election Predictions: Election Day 2022

Here are our predictions for the House, Senate, and governor races for today's election:

House

Senate

Governors

Let us know where you agree and disagree in the comments!

GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

Crowd Crush in Seoul Leaves At Least 154 Dead

A human crowd crush during Halloween celebrations in Seoul, South Korea left at least 154 dead and injured at least 152 more.

The cause of the incident, the deadliest peacetime disaster in the country since the 2014 ferry sinking killing 306, is still under investigation. Local outlets reported that it may have been caused by people trying to see a yet-to-be identified celebrity in a nearby club.

 

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Wins Election

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, often known mononymously as Lula, won Sunday’s presidential vote to recapture his old position, defeating incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro by just under 2 million votes out of nearly 120 million cast, or by around 1.8 percentage points.

The election marks a remarkable comeback for the former two-term president, who led the country from 2003 to 2010. Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff, a fellow member of his left-wing Worker Party (PT), was impeached on corruption charges. Lula himself was convicted on corruption and money laundering charges in 2017, spending 580 days in jail. Lula successfully appealed his conviction, which he and his supporters argued was politically motivated, in 2021, clearing the way for him to run for president in 2022.

Outgoing President Bolsonaro, considered one of the most right-wing current leaders of a democratic country, has not yet conceded the election. While he lost, he outperformed most opinion polls, which had him losing to Lula by 5-10 points.

Queen Elizabeth's Funeral Caps Days of Mourning for Late British Monarch

The world said goodbye to the Queen Elizabeth II on Monday, with heads of state from around the world joining British royalty and politicians at Westminster Abbey. The memorial services, which were part of larger funeral plans decades in the making, were relatively short, in keeping with the queen’s wishes.

Following the service, her casket was taken to Buckingham Palace for a final time before being rolled to Wellington Arch, where it was then transferred to the hearse. Members of the public lined up along the road as her body was taken to Windsor Castle, where a second, smaller service occurred. At this service, the crown, orb, and scepter were removed from atop the casket, and her body was lowered into the chapel. The funeral was concluded later in the day with a private ceremony for her family, in which the queen was buried next to her husband, the late Duke of Edinburgh Prince Philip, and other deceased members of the royal family, including her late father, King George VI, mother, and sister.

The funeral caps ten days of mourning for the queen, who died September 8 after it was reported she was under medical supervision.