Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Thursday, February 29, 2024

Haley Vows to Stay in Until Super Tuesday

While former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has failed to win any states so far in her quest for the Republican nomination, she has vowed to remain in the primary race until Super Tuesday. Former President Donald Trump has finished first in all states that have voted so far, including Haley’s home state of South Carolina.

Haley is the last major candidate still challenging Trump for the nomination, with all other major GOP challengers dropping out prior to the Iowa caucuses or shortly after. A longshot contender, Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley, dropped out of the race this week and endorsed Trump.

Trump leads Nikki Haley in the RealClearPolitics average of polls 78.7% to 14.5%. So far, Haley has performed much better in each state that has voted than 14.5%, though in Michigan, the latest state to hold its primary, she failed to break 30% of the vote.

Trump’s campaign has appeared to transition to general election campaigning, with Trump choosing not to mention Haley in his victory speech after the South Carolina primary.

 

Monday, July 31, 2023

2024 Contest Marked by Trump Legal Troubles, Biden Investigations

The two likely general election opponents in the 2024 presidential race are both dealing with their own legal issues. Former President Donald Trump’s are more pressing given his three state and federal indictments, but President Biden faces increased scrutiny over alleged involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings, with calls for impeachment growing among congressional Republicans.

Trump was indicted for the third time this month; in a superseding indictment, he is now alleged to have obstructed justice by scheming to erase video surveillance at Mar-a-Lago in an attempt to cover up his retention of classified material. Trump has denied the charges.

Trump is also expected to face another federal indictment over his actions in challenging the results of the 2020 election and the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. He may also face a state indictment in Georgia over his actions to overturn Biden’s victory in the state in 2020.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden remain the subjects of House GOP inquiries. Biden has long denied any knowledge of his son’s business dealings, which have been linked to previous money laundering, tax evasion, and foreign lobbying investigations, which have led to misdemeanor failure to pay tax charges (Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to those charges after a recent plea deal was effectively rejected during a recent hearing).

Republicans have so far failed to tie Joe Biden directly to Hunter’s business activities, though an FBI document reporting a source’s claim that Joe Biden was bribed by Ukrainian company Burisma has been uncovered. To date, no evidence to confirm that claim has been found.

 

Sunday, April 30, 2023

Biden Announces Reelection Campaign

President Joe Biden’s campaign released an announcement video this past week that formally announced his reelection bid in 2024, a move widely expected. Biden enters the race the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with his two announced opponents, self-help author Marianne Williamson and environmental and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polling in the high single digits to low double digits. 

The Republican field, while becoming more crowded, remains  overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and to a lesser extent, the unannounced campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has retained a strong consistent lead over DeSantis throughout the past few months, experiencing a bump following his indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for business falsification charges related to the 2016 hush money payment to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels). DeSantis has a consistent second-place lead, and the only other candidate, unannounced or otherwise, consistently polling in double digits.

Other Republican candidates include former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is running a campaign appealing to her gender and traditional Republican politics, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump’s influence over the GOP, former California gubernatorial candidate and radio host Larry Elder, and technology entrepreneur and political activist Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee and is expected to announce a run in the near future.

 

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Smaller GOP Gains Than Expected Lead to Split Congress

The expected red wave, in which Republicans were predicted to make major gains across the country, may not have materialized the way some Republican had hoped, but they did manage to gain the seats needed to take control of the US House of Representatives, ending unified Democratic control of Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats were able to keep their Senate majority and possibly expand it, pending the result of the Georgia’s Senate runoff in December.

So far, 220 seats have been declared won by Republicans in the House, with two seats still uncalled, though Republicans lead in both and are likely to win. However, while gaining control of the House is an undeniable victory for the GOP, their majority (likely 222-213) is smaller than what most were expecting. A GOP majority of at least 230 seats in the next congress would have given their leadership more breathing room for difficult votes. Now, with a narrow majority to contend, passing their favored legislation, or even blocking certain Democratic-backed legislation, will likely prove a more difficult task to manage.

Republicans fell short in their quest to reclaim the Senate majority, losing their Pennsylvania seat and failing so far to pick up any Democratic seats. While Republicans could pick up a seat in Georgia in December should Herschel Walker defeat incumbent Raphael Warnock, that result would lead to a 50-50 split, under which Democrats would still retain control.

The Republicans also fell short of their ambitions in state governments, only picking up one governorship (Nevada) while losing three (Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona).

 

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Election Predictions: Election Day 2022

Here are our predictions for the House, Senate, and governor races for today's election:


House







Senate



Governors




Let us know where you agree and disagree in the comments!

Monday, November 30, 2020

A Few Congressional Races Remain Uncalled

While the election ended weeks ago, several congressional races remain uncalled. One in Louisiana is guaranteed to remain Republican as two GOP candidates face off in a runoff on December 5 after neither achieved 50% initially.

In New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) narrowly leads Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi, with disputes about challenged ballots remaining. In Iowa’s 4th, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by single digits (in votes, not percentage) in the closest House race in the nation. Further recounts and litigation could happen.

 

Monday, November 2, 2020

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:



In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:




Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com



Thursday, October 29, 2020

Trump, Biden Make Last Minute Appeal to Electorate

Incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden faced off for the final time last Thursday at the second presidential debate in Nashville. This debate was marked by a much friendlier tone than the caustic first one, with many fewer interruptions by the candidates themselves and nearly no scolding statements from the moderator, Kristen Welker of NBC News. The debate spent about one-third of its time discussing the COVID-19 pandemic, with Biden criticizing Trump’s response and the high case and death numbers in the US. He also reiterated his plan for a national testing strategy, though he did not provide many details on it, again advocated for wearing masks. Trump again chided Biden for his initial criticism of Trump’s ban on travel from China and defended other aspects of his coronavirus response. 

Later both men sparred over energy policy, with Trump accusing Biden of having said in earlier appearances that he would ban fracking. Biden said that he would not ban fracking, but that his administration would indeed move towards renewables and would work to end any subsidies to oil companies. Biden also defended his son Hunter’s foreign business dealings, saying there was nothing unethical in them and denied benefitting from them in any way.

Biden maintains a strong, consistent lead in national polling with a narrower but still consistent lead in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. Both candidates have been making numerous appearances in the last days, with the Trump campaign aiming to catch any last-minute momentum to eliminate Biden’s lead in the polls before election day.

 

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Trump, Biden Throw Down in First Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate of the 2020 election featured incumbent Republican President Donald Trump squaring off face-to-face against Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time in Cleveland, Ohio. Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace moderated the debate, though it quickly and irreversibly devolved into a shouting match between the two candidates, with Wallace struggling throughout to maintain control over the speakers' allotted time and even the topics themselves.

Both men frequently interrupted each other, with Trump interrupting more frequently and often charging Biden with dodging the question at hand. Both insulted each other with personal attacks, with Biden calling Trump “a clown” and “the worst president America has ever had.” Trump saved his most pointed criticism for Biden’s son Hunter, whose previous involvement in foreign firms has drawn scrutiny. Trump also mistakenly claimed Biden referred to minority youths as “superpredators” over twenty-five years ago during the debate over the 1994 crime bill; this term was used by Hillary Clinton.

The debate featured few policy specifics from either candidate, with both emphasizing in broad terms their respective visions of the country. Biden reiterated his claims that he can unite the country as president and restore trust and confidence in American government, criticizing Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Biden charged Trump with failing to provide PPE (personal protective equipment) to first responders as well as prioritizing reopening the economy rather than preventing the spread of the virus. Trump countered with his claim that the lockdowns are no longer necessary and that getting the economy restarted is his main goal.

 

Monday, August 31, 2020

Democratic, Republican National Conventions Conclude


Convention season is over as the Republicans wrapped up theirs last Thursday, culminating with a vivid firework show that lighted up the nation’s capital. Theatrics and pageantry aside, they provided the last opportunity for both parties to make their case before the debates.

The Democratic convention was a mix of live and pre-recorded speeches and video productions, and none of the speeches were done in front of a large audience. All speeches given, including the acceptance speeches by presidential nominee Joe Biden and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris were relatively short given that they were not broken up by applause lines and other pauses used when delivering in front of an audience.

The Democrats focused on highlighting Joe Biden’s as someone of good moral character and empathy, contrasting that with their views on incumbent Donald Trump, who they argue shows little empathy and has been a failure in moral leadership as well as policy, especially in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, they focused relatively little on policy specifics, offering broad support for progressive ideas on gun control, the environment, racial justice, and economic reforms.

The Republicans followed the broad outline of the Democratic convention, though nearly all speeches were delivered live in one location in Washington, DC. In addition, Trump and Mike Pence gave their acceptance speeches in front of audiences at the White House and at Fort McHenry in Baltimore respectively. The Republican Convention offered more specific policy proposals throughout their speeches, though media factcheckers criticized some of the claims made by speakers, including Trump, on the administration’s record.


Friday, July 31, 2020

Biden Leads Trump, Senate Republicans Trail in Key Races


Former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump in the nationwide polling averages as well as in the battleground states. Biden’s lead has grown amid the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown from the shutdowns, restrictions, and general fear of the virus that has depressed economic activity.

Biden currently leads Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate of polls. He also leads Trump in Wisconsin (5.0), Florida (6.2), North Carolina (3.4), Michigan (8.0), Pennsylvania (6.0), and Arizona (3.2). In addition, Democrats lead Republicans in nearly all competitive states, including states with Republican incumbents, such as Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa. Republicans currently lead in one state with a Democratic incumbent, Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won against Roy Moore in 2017 after allegations surfaced of sexually harassing minors back in the 1970s.

In addition, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads GOP challenger John James in Michigan, considered one of the few pickup opportunities in the Senate for the Republicans.


Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up


Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.
In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point. 


Thursday, April 30, 2020

General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month



Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.


Saturday, February 29, 2020

Sanders Leads Nationally as Biden Triumphs in South Carolina


Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has captured frontrunner status in the Democratic race, though it may not be enough to win enough delegates before the convention in Milwaukee in a few months.

That may be even more likely after today’s vote, as former Vice President Joe Biden scored a strong victory in the South Carolina primary Saturday. Long touted as his firewall, Biden seemed to be danger just last week of losing the primary to a surging Sanders. Biden, with around 90% of the precincts in, has just under 50% of the vote, with second-place Sanders just under 20%.

Even with Biden’s South Carolina victory and the possibility of momentum heading into Super Tuesday this week, Sanders holds a healthy lead on national polling, which was Biden’s claim just last month. According to the RealClearPolitics poll aggregator, Sanders leads Biden 29.6% to 18.8%, with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg coming in third with 16.4%. Bloomberg, who will only be on state ballots starting on Super Tuesday, surged in polling this past month as he spent hundreds of millions of dollars on television and online advertisements. His momentum has slowed, however, amid a poor first debate performance and a somewhat resurgent Biden, whose disastrous Iowa and New Hampshire results had some wondering if he would leave the race.

While Sanders maintains the lead in national polling and in certain Super Tuesday states, there is a strong chance neither he or any other candidate will reach a majority of delegates on the first ballot. If that happens, delegates can choose who to be their nominee at the convention, possibly setting up a protracted and heated battle to face Trump in November.


Saturday, November 30, 2019

Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Candidates Win in Elections


Hong Kong’s pro-democracy activists and protesters scored a major victory this month when the pro-democracy bloc of candidates scored a majority of seats in the local district council elections, winning 388 out of 479 seats total. The pro-Beijing (or pro-establishment bloc), which favors close relations with the Chinese government, won only 62 seats, or just under 13% of the total. To compare, the pro-Beijing bloc held a majority of seats prior to the election.

Because of the first-past-the post system in Hong Kong’s district council elections, in which candidates are elected to represent specific districts, pro-democracy bloc-won seats are over-represented compared to the percentage of those who voted for those candidates; pro-democracy candidates managed to win just under 60% of the vote. While pro-democracy voters outnumbered those candidates who support the Chinese government’s increased role in governing the area, the population still has a large share of the population who may hold unfavorable attitudes towards those who seek to distance Hong Kong from Beijing’s control.


Saturday, August 31, 2019

Democratic Field Narrows, Republican’s Grows by One


The 2020 Presidential field continues to change as several Democrats drop out of the race, while one Republican joins in an attempt to deny President Donald Trump the GOP nomination.

This month, four major candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race: former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton, and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. None of the candidates managed to gain major support during any of the campaign, with Moulton never making the debate stage and Gillibrand (the highest-polling one of the group) only scoring 3% in one poll and usually averaging only 1%.

This still leaves well over a dozen candidates in the mix, though only three, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warrant, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, poll in the double digits. The rest, including relatively high polling candidates California Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are in the single digits.

However, recent polls have indicated that any of those candidates has a polling advantage over Trump in the general, though the election is still over a year away, and the political environment can easily shift more in favor (or even less in favor) of Trump’s reelection prospects.

Meanwhile, former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois announced a longshot bid to challenge Trump for the GOP primary this week. Walsh, once a strong Trump supporter and a conservative firebrand, has come under fire for controversial and racially tinged statements made in his past.


Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Democrats Debate Again, 10 Yesterday and 10 Today


The race for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 continues after ten Democratic candidates met in Detroit last night for the second primary debate, with ten more to go tonight.

Last night’s debate featured the two highest-polling progressive candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Other relatively high-polling candidates (though still in the single digits) were South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

The debate demonstrated sharp differences between the progressive wing, led by Sanders and Warren, and the relatively more moderate wing, including Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Some of these differences included whether to abolish private health insurance in favor of government-run insurance, providing free health care to those residing in the US illegally, and decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Places of agreement between both camps included providing a government-run insurance program (regardless of whether private insurance would still be allowed), instituting more gun control, and placing higher taxes on wealthy Americans.

Ten more candidates will debate tonight, including two other high-polling candidates, the frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden is considered relatively more moderate than many of the other candidates (though still liberal by national standards), and will likely face progressive criticisms from Harris and other candidates.


Sunday, June 30, 2019

Democrats Open Up Primary Season with First Debate


NBC hosted the first Democratic debate on June 26 and June 27, with twenty of the twenty-four declared major candidates participating. Ten candidates debated each day, and though NBC said the order was randomly allocated, four of the five top-polling candidates went on the second day, including frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden.

The first debate, in which Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (currently second place in polls) participated, mostly focused on the candidates introducing themselves to the American people and what their main interests are. For example, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan focused on winning back working class voters while Washington Gov. Jay Inslee focused on climate change, which he has made a central issue to his campaign. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke was the subject of repeated attacks, most notably from Texas Rep. Julian Castro, who criticized his immigration plan, most notably in that it would not change unauthorized border crossings from a criminal to a civil offense (similar to parking tickets).

The second debate featured even sharper criticisms against each other, with Biden the most frequent target. California Rep. Eric Swalwell criticized Biden’s longevity in politics and argued its was time for someone new to be the party’s standard bearer. California Senator Kamala Harris criticized Biden’s earlier statements that spoke favorably of former segregationist politicians (though not their positions; his comments were on their “civility”) and his opposition to mandatory busing, a program aimed at integrating schools. Biden refused to apologize for his position on busing and also did not walk back his earlier comments on working with the segregationist senators.


Opposition Candidate Wins Istanbul Mayoral Redo


In a sharp rebuke to Turkey’s ruling AKP party and its autocratic leader, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the residents of Istanbul voted for opposition party candidate Ekrem Imamoglu over AKP candidate Binali Yildirim. Imamoglu, of the CHP party, had won the original election held in March by a narrow margin; however, Turkey’s electoral commission, under pressure from Erdogan, voided the election. The gamble failed to pay for Erdogan, however, when voters voted for Imamoglu by a 9% margin on June 23, versus the .16% margin on March 31. Combined with defeats in other large Turkish cities, including the capital Ankara, it marks the one of the largest rebukes to Erdogan’s rule since he took power in 2003.


Friday, May 31, 2019

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Wins Second Term


Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a second term after his BJP party captured a resounding victory in the Indian general elections. The second largest party, the Indian National Congress (INC), failed to win 55 seats (it won 52 out of 543 elected seats), leaving the Lok Sabha without an official opposition for the second time in a row.

While Modi’s party suffered defeats in state assembly elections earlier this year, the BJP managed to increase the number of seats it holds from the 2014 elections, where Modi won his first term, succeeding INC Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.