Louisiana Congressman Mike Johnson Elected Speaker

Louisiana Congressman Mike Johnson was elected speaker of the US House of Representatives on October 25, capping over three weeks of political drama which left the House paralyzed following the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the first in US history.

Johnson, a staunch conservative, managed to attract unanimous support among his Republican colleagues on the House floor after winning the nomination from House Republicans. His victory followed three GOP nominees failing to win enough Republican support to win in a vote from the full House. Of the three, only Jim Jordan’s (R-OH) nomination received a vote on the floor, in which he lost three votes amid staunch opposition from GOP moderates.

 

Biden, McCarthy Reach Debt Ceiling Deal

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal this past weekend to the raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which would avoid a default on certain federal government obligations, something projected to occur by June 5. The deal caps weeks of negotiation, with Republicans seeking to cap spending levels and roll back increased IRS funding and Democrats seeking to preserve their many of the programs passed in the last congress, most notably certain green energy subsidies.

The debt ceiling deal caps 2024 and 2025 discretionary spending levels based upon 2023 levels, with a 1% increase allowed for 2025. Republicans win’s also included imposing new work requirements on childless, able-bodied Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, as well as also adjust the formula states use to calculate aid as part of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program.

The deal also will cut $1.9 billion in additional IRS appropriation this year, and a further $20 billion is now set to be reallocated in 2024 and 2025. Democrats, who passed an additional $80 billion in IRS funding as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, claim the additional funding passed last year will lead to a net revenue gain by auditing primarily high earners. Republicans in contrast say the additional funding will primarily increase audits on lower- and middle-earners.

The deal will also force the Biden Administration to resume collecting student loan repayments this summer. It does not prevent Biden’s proposal to cancel $10,000 in student loan debt, which is currently in litigation before the Supreme Court.

 

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

The House passed the Republican debt ceiling package Wednesday on a near party line vote, with four GOP defections and all Democrats voting against. The bill would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 billion while reducing discretionary spending by 9%.

President Biden and Senate Democrats have said the bill is dead on arrival. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hopes the bill will bring Biden and Senate leadership to start negotiations. Biden ally Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) has called Republican attempts to use the debt ceiling limit to force spending cuts as ‘hostage negotiations’ and has called for such discussions to be part of regular appropriations talks. 

 

Democratic Takeover of House will Cause Trump Problems, Senate Remains GOP

Democrats took forty seats in the House of Representatives this November, which will give them party a majority of seats in the chamber for the first times since 2011. Republicans, however, managed to increase their majority in the Senate by two seats, picking up four seats by defeating incumbent Democrats in states President Trump won in 2016 and losing two seats, one in Arizona and one in Nevada. Democrats will have 235 seats in the House to Republican's 200 when the new Congress begins January 3, while Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

This will cause some new issues for Trump and his party. With the Republicans now lacking full control of Congress, pushing through their favored legislation will become far more difficult. In addition, House Democrats have promised to launch a series of investigations into Trump, which could include searches into the extent of his contacts with Russian nationals, his handling of the firing of then-FBI Director James Comey in 2017, and allegations into whether Trump has personally enriched himself through his office.

Even with this, Republicans have maintained considerable power through expanding their Senate majority. Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have made confirming Trump’s judicial nominees to federal courts a priority. With two more members in the next Congress, pushing through Trump’s picks will likely become less laborious for the GOP, which successfully fought to confirm now Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the court this year. 

Senate leadership will remain in the next Congress, with the exception of Sen. John Thune (R-SD) taking over for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as Senate majority whip. The Republican House leader will be Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), while Democrats have yet to choose the speaker, but it is believed former Speaker and current House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has the best chance.