Biden Ramps Up Campaign as Trump Faces Financial Headwinds

The Biden campaign raised around $26 million from a New York City fundraiser last week attended by celebrities and two of the three former Democratic presidents. This adds to the president’s and the Democrats’ large fundraising advantage over Donald Trump and the Republicans.

The fundraiser consisted of musical performances by Queen Latifah and Lizzo, along with a panel discussion with Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton and hosted by comedian Stephen Colbert.

Biden’s team has tapped into their funds for a $30 million ad blitz in the swing states, where he largely trails Trump. Biden has closed some of the gap with Trump in these states, but he still trails Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, both in the swing states and nationally.

Trump, facing financial setbacks as a result of his legal troubles, may have gotten a needed boost when his social media company, Truth Social, went public last week under the ticker DJT. The long-awaited listing allowed the company to reach a market capitalization of over $8 billion. Trump’s 58% stake in the company gives the former president $5.2 billion, in addition to his existing wealth from real estate and other investments.

However, a large selloff of his holdings may cause the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group to fall, reducing the liquid wealth from which he can draw. Trump also faces a lock up period in which he cannot sell his shares for six months. He may, however, obtain a waiver from this restriction or borrow money against his holdings.

 

Biden, Trump Make Dueling Visits to Texas Border Cities

President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump both made visits to the Texas-Mexico border on Thursday. Biden visited Brownsville, the southernmost city in the state, and Trump visited Eagle Pass, one of the most active crossing sites for migrants for the past several years.

Trump landed first in Del Rio before traveling to Eagle Pass, where he was joined by Texas Governor Greg Abbott and by National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd, both staunch backers of Trump in his rematch against Biden in November.

In his speech, Trump blasted Biden, calling him the “worst president” in American history and pledged to reinstate the policies of his presidency, including Remain in Mexico, where asylum claimants waited in Mexico while their claims were adjudicated.

In Brownsville, Biden met with local leaders and border patrol agents, where he had a brief tour of the border and then gave a speech at the border patrol station. After he spoke briefly on the wildfires in the Texas Panhandle, he called on Republicans to pass a bipartisan bill that would allocate money to hire more border patrol agents and judges.

Democrats have accused congressional Republicans of bowing to pressure from Trump to not pass the bill in order to prevent Biden from claiming credit in reducing the number of migrants coming to the US. Republicans counter that Biden can take executive action without the bill and that the bill should not be tied to funding for Ukraine in the war against Russia.

The trip to Brownsville is Biden’s first trip to South Texas and his second to the US-Mexico border.

 

US Says It Will Respond to Recent Deadly Drone Attack

The Biden administration has promised a response to the drone strike that killed three American servicemembers in Jordan. According to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, the US holds the Islamic Resistance in Iraq responsible for the attack, which itself is an umbrella organization that contains Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia militant group.

Kirby also said that the response from the US  would not ‘be a one-off,’ but would come in phases.

The three soldiers killed in the drone strike were Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, Specialist Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, and Specialist Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23. All three were from Georgia.

Kata'ib Hezbollah did announce that it would suspend military operations against US force in the region, though whether it will truly back off from targeting US assets in the region is questionable.

The commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Hossein Salami, warned that Iran was willing to respond to US retaliatory strikes, also saying, "We (Iran) are not looking for war, but we are not afraid of it either.” This echoes a similar sentiment from President Biden, who has also sought to avoid escalating the conflict in the Middle East.

The Middle East erupted into conflict after the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians, killing 1,139. Israel responded with large scale airstrikes and a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, which has resulted in over 25,000 dead (both civilians and Hamas militants). In response, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, which control Yemen’s capital Sana’a and much of its western region, have launched attacks on cargo ships and US military vessels, leading to US strikes on Houthi targets.

 

Incandescent Lightbulb Ban Takes Effect in August

The Biden administration’s new ban on the sale of most incandescent light bulbs takes effect August 1, capping a nearly sixteen year long effort to phaseout the lighting from most consumer use. The Trump administration had delayed implementation of the rule, with the Biden administration reinstating it.

People can still own incandescent bulbs, but retailers can no longer sell them after August 1.

The market has long been shifting toward more energy efficient LED lighting, which uses a fraction of the power that traditional incandescent bulbs use. LED lighting also does not contain any toxic elements like fluorescent lighting does.

LED lighting does have its limitations: They are more difficult to dim than incandescent lights, and the spectrum of light they emit is different from incandescent light, requiring adjustments to emulate the light of incandescent bulbs.

Praise for the new rule focuses on the expected environmental benefits from using less energy. Criticism has focused on perceived government overreach and that consumers can no longer choose incandescent lighting even if they prefer it.

 

2024 Contest Marked by Trump Legal Troubles, Biden Investigations

The two likely general election opponents in the 2024 presidential race are both dealing with their own legal issues. Former President Donald Trump’s are more pressing given his three state and federal indictments, but President Biden faces increased scrutiny over alleged involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings, with calls for impeachment growing among congressional Republicans.

Trump was indicted for the third time this month; in a superseding indictment, he is now alleged to have obstructed justice by scheming to erase video surveillance at Mar-a-Lago in an attempt to cover up his retention of classified material. Trump has denied the charges.

Trump is also expected to face another federal indictment over his actions in challenging the results of the 2020 election and the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. He may also face a state indictment in Georgia over his actions to overturn Biden’s victory in the state in 2020.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden remain the subjects of House GOP inquiries. Biden has long denied any knowledge of his son’s business dealings, which have been linked to previous money laundering, tax evasion, and foreign lobbying investigations, which have led to misdemeanor failure to pay tax charges (Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to those charges after a recent plea deal was effectively rejected during a recent hearing).

Republicans have so far failed to tie Joe Biden directly to Hunter’s business activities, though an FBI document reporting a source’s claim that Joe Biden was bribed by Ukrainian company Burisma has been uncovered. To date, no evidence to confirm that claim has been found.

 

Biden, McCarthy Reach Debt Ceiling Deal

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal this past weekend to the raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which would avoid a default on certain federal government obligations, something projected to occur by June 5. The deal caps weeks of negotiation, with Republicans seeking to cap spending levels and roll back increased IRS funding and Democrats seeking to preserve their many of the programs passed in the last congress, most notably certain green energy subsidies.

The debt ceiling deal caps 2024 and 2025 discretionary spending levels based upon 2023 levels, with a 1% increase allowed for 2025. Republicans win’s also included imposing new work requirements on childless, able-bodied Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, as well as also adjust the formula states use to calculate aid as part of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program.

The deal also will cut $1.9 billion in additional IRS appropriation this year, and a further $20 billion is now set to be reallocated in 2024 and 2025. Democrats, who passed an additional $80 billion in IRS funding as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, claim the additional funding passed last year will lead to a net revenue gain by auditing primarily high earners. Republicans in contrast say the additional funding will primarily increase audits on lower- and middle-earners.

The deal will also force the Biden Administration to resume collecting student loan repayments this summer. It does not prevent Biden’s proposal to cancel $10,000 in student loan debt, which is currently in litigation before the Supreme Court.

 

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

The House passed the Republican debt ceiling package Wednesday on a near party line vote, with four GOP defections and all Democrats voting against. The bill would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 billion while reducing discretionary spending by 9%.

President Biden and Senate Democrats have said the bill is dead on arrival. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy hopes the bill will bring Biden and Senate leadership to start negotiations. Biden ally Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) has called Republican attempts to use the debt ceiling limit to force spending cuts as ‘hostage negotiations’ and has called for such discussions to be part of regular appropriations talks. 

 

Biden Announces Reelection Campaign

President Joe Biden’s campaign released an announcement video this past week that formally announced his reelection bid in 2024, a move widely expected. Biden enters the race the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with his two announced opponents, self-help author Marianne Williamson and environmental and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polling in the high single digits to low double digits. 

The Republican field, while becoming more crowded, remains  overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, and to a lesser extent, the unannounced campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump has retained a strong consistent lead over DeSantis throughout the past few months, experiencing a bump following his indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for business falsification charges related to the 2016 hush money payment to pornographic actress Stephanie Clifford (aka Stormy Daniels). DeSantis has a consistent second-place lead, and the only other candidate, unannounced or otherwise, consistently polling in double digits.

Other Republican candidates include former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is running a campaign appealing to her gender and traditional Republican politics, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump’s influence over the GOP, former California gubernatorial candidate and radio host Larry Elder, and technology entrepreneur and political activist Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has formed an exploratory committee and is expected to announce a run in the near future.

 

Mishandled Classified Documents Scandal Plague Biden, Trump, Pence

The Biden White House continues to work to limit the political and legal fallout from classified documents dating from his time as vice president found at the Penn Biden Center as well as his personal residence.

Biden’s lawyers first alerted the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) on November 2, 2022, of classified documents found at the Penn Biden Center. NARA alerted the Department of Justice (DOJ), which began investigating the handling of the documents. CBS News reported on January 31 that the FBI searched the Penn Biden center in mid-November 2022, something the White House has not yet revealed.

On January 9, the White House revealed the released information about the document situation while trying to draw differences between Biden’s case and former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents after his presidency. Trump’s Florida residence Mar-a-Lago was raided by the FBI on August 8, 2022, and Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel into Trump’s case on November 18.

Garland would do the same in Biden’s case on January 12.

More documents were reported found in Biden’s Wilmington, Delaware residence on January 11. The FBI later conducted a voluntary search of his residence, finding additional documents.

On January 24, NARA revealed that former Vice President Mike Pence also retained classified documents at his Indiana home, leading to speculation that such mishandling of documents may be widespread among high-ranking government officials.

 

Democratic Fortunes Improve After Recent Victories

 Facing the prospect of significant losses in the November midterm elections, Democrats’ fortunes may have improved if recent election results are any indication. Along with an increase in President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, Democrats have expressed more confidence that they will keep the Senate majority and possibly keep their House majority.

The most notable recent indication the Republicans may not have a lock on Congressional control after the midterms are the results of the special US House election in New York. Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro, 51.1% to 48.7%, in the 19th congressional district, slightly overperforming Biden’s performance in 2020. In the New York’s 23rd, Republican Joe Sempolinski won 6.5 percentage points, underperforming Trump’s 11-point victory in 2020.

In Kansas, voters rejected by a double-digit margin to allow the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion in the state.

Biden’s approval ratings have also improved in recent weeks, though they still remain negative.

 

Manchin and Schumer Announce Reconciliation Deal

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to revive a slimmed down version of the ‘Build Back Better Act’ that Manchin had rejected in December 2021. Perhaps most surprisingly, the revived deal includes climate change expenditures and tax increases that Manchin had claimed he had ruled out earlier this month following months of negotiations between him and Schumer. Any revised deal had been expected only to include an extension of Obamacare health care plan subsidies and a drug pricing negotiation package aimed at reducing the cost of prescription drugs.

The deal now includes a minimum tax rate on corporations of 15% of their book profit, preventing them from using depreciation expenses to reduce their tax rate below 15%. It also eliminates the carried interest loophole.

Perhaps the most controversial part of the bill is the $80 billion given to the IRS over the next 10 years, the bulk of which will be used for increased audits in an attempt to raise revenue for the federal government. Proponents of the plan, such as Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), claim the increased audits will catch high income tax cheats and will pay for themself. Opponents, including most Republicans, claims the IRS will target ordinary taxpayers to raise the revenue, especially the self-employed. The bill’s language does not currently limit the IRS’s increased enforcement budget to only audits on high income/high net worth individuals or corporations.

This plan will need the support of all 50 Democratic senators to pass the Senate. Moderate Democrat Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has not yet announced her position.

 

US Enters Recession after Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth

The US economy officially entered recession in the second quarter of 2022, after official estimates showed the GDP, a measure of total economic output, declining at 0.9% rate in Q2. It follows a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

The Biden administration downplayed the decline and refused to say that the US was in recession, touting the low unemployment rate (3.6%) and strong consumer spending. While two consecutive quarters of economic decline is the typical definition of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research also makes their own call whether the US economy is in recession.

 

Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

The Supreme Court issued their decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization last Friday, overturning the previous Supreme Court decisions Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, allowing states to ban abortions within their jurisdictions. The previous decisions that were overturned had found that a constitutional right to abortion had existed and prevented states from banning it.

The court’s decision in Dobbs was praised by pro-life, anti-abortion rights activists who had long sought to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling. Up to 26 states are expected to ban abortions or greatly limit the ability to obtain one.

Pro-choice, pro-abortion rights activists opposed the decision, calling it a threat to women’s rights and promising federal action to preserve abortion rights, such as access to abortion pills and possibly allowing abortions on federal lands in states that ban it.

President Biden has criticized the ruling and has said that he supports codifying a nationwide right to abortion into federal law. Such legislation would require creating an exception to the filibuster rule in the Senate or scrapping the filibuster altogether. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), while supportive of abortion rights, are opposed to such a move.

Some opponents of the Dobbs ruling are calling for changes to the Supreme Court, with some going so far as to call it ‘illegitimate’ and calling for new justices to be added to the court to balance out its conservative lean. Three of the five justices who voted to overturn Roe were appointed by former President Trump during his term.

 

White House Reportedly Weighing Student Loan Debt Relief

President Joe Biden is reportedly weighing forgiving up to $10,000 of federal student loans. This comes as he struggles to regain footing among younger voters. Biden has previously resisted pressure to eliminate debt even while he extended repayment relief multiple times during his term.

Activists and politicians who have been advocating loan forgiveness, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), have pushed for Biden to forgive up to $50,000 in debt. The White House has so far ruled out that amount.

The administration is also considering limiting relief to borrowers below a certain income threshold.

 

Ketanji Brown Jackson Heads Towards Likely Confirmation

The Senate Judiciary Committee completed the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for US Appeals Court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson last week, with Jackson likely heading towards confirmation to become the first black woman on the Supreme Court given Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) announcement that he will support her nomination.

Jackson, who was nominated to succeed retiring Justice Stephen Breyer, was first installed on the US District Court for the District of Columbia in 2013 by President Obama and was elevated to the Appeals Court for the DC Circuit in 2021 by President Biden. Prior to her service on the federal bench, Jackson was vice chair of the US Sentencing Commission and had worked as a federal public defender.

Jackson’s ascension to the Supreme Court would likely not have a major effect on the ideological makeup of the court, as she, widely perceived as a liberal jurist, would be replacing Breyer, another liberal jurist. One possible shift, however, would be in the court’s approach to certain criminal justice issues. Breyer was often deferential to prosecutors and police, while Jackson’s record does not show such a deference.

 

Manchin Reportedly Working to Revive Spending Package

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has given signals that he may be willing to negotiate on a slimmed down version of the previous Build Back Better bill, which he effectively killed in December 2021 after he announced his opposition to it on Fox News Sunday. This bill would likely focus on controlling drug prices, energy policy, and tax increases.

Any legislation he puts forth will still need the support of the 49 other Democratic senators (barring any GOP defections), including fellow moderate Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona. Sinema has been in the past been hesitant to support some of the tax increases proposed last year.

Biden Struggles to Gain Political Footing Ahead of Midterms

President Joe Biden’s approval continues to lag as several domestic and foreign policy challenges cast a shadow over his presidency.

While coronavirus cases have been dropping nationwide, inflation remains a top issue among voters ahead of the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Biden’s approval rating stands at 40.7%, according to the 538 polling aggregate, around the same level as former President Donald Trump’s average rating when he was president.

The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine also poses a challenge for the administration. Biden faces pressure from both those arguing for a more interventionist stance as well as those arguing for a more hands-off approach.

A possible positive development for the president is his nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court caused by the retirement of Stephen Breyer. While Jackson’s ascension of the court will not cause any substantial change in the ideological makeup of the court, Democrats hope the first black woman on the Supreme Court will excite their base.

 

Russian Troops Loom on Ukrainian Border as Invasion Threat Continues

As thousands of Russian troops remain stationed threateningly close to Ukraine’s border, Western countries have tried to convince Russia to back off its threats of moving troops into the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin has counteroffered that NATO refuse any new members, a non-starter for the alliance.

NATO leaders are making trips to Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, including the prime ministers of the UK, the Netherlands, and Poland. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who himself has clashed with many Western leaders during his time in power, will also visit Kiev.

Germany, the largest economy in NATO after the US, has so far been tepid in its support of Ukraine, refraining from sending weapons while other NATO countries have done so. Germany is currently working with Russia to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany. Some in the US government have threatened sanctions over the pipeline, though such sanctions have been opposed, most notably by President Joe Biden, over concerns such measures could weaken the relationship between the US and Germany.

Russia currently is supporting an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russian separatists are trying to break away from the government in Kiev. Russia also controls the Crimean Peninsula, considered by most countries as still part of Ukraine.

Russia fears Ukraine falling further into the West’s orbit as popular opinion in Ukraine has turned strongly against Russia since the 2014 revolution which toppled pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich and prompted Russia to take over Crimea.

 

President Biden’s Approval Rating Suffers Amid Challenges

President Joe Biden had a politically rough first month of 2022, with his polling numbers falling to the lowest point of his year-old presidency.

According to the 538 polling aggregate, Biden has 41.6% approval rating among registered and likely voters, with 53.3% disapproving. Most polls show strong majorities disapproving of the president’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. His approval of handling of the coronavirus pandemic, once a strong point, has suffered, with one recent poll finding a slight net approval, 50-49%.

His party is also facing challenges ahead of the midterm elections. Currently, Republicans lead Democrats by 4.1 points in the congressional generic ballot RealClearPolitics polling aggregate.

While President Biden has time before November to recover his standing, he will need to overcome several challenges to make it happen. Inflation, which rose to the highest level in four decades, continues to cause economic hardship for millions of Americans. The threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine will also test the president’s diplomatic and foreign policy skills in the coming months.

 

Biden’s Domestic Agenda Makes Progress While His Approval Lags

Several pieces of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda moved forward in Congress this month. As part of an agreement with House progressives, more moderate members of the House Democratic caucus promised to vote for Biden’s larger social spending package if progressives backed the infrastructure bill. Both sides adhered to the agreement, and the House passed the House after it was passed by the Senate earlier this year. Biden has since signed the bill into law. The House also passed the social spending package, now titled the ‘Build Back Better Act,’ where it now faces an uncertain future in the Senate.

While Democratic leadership has been aiming to pass the package by Christmas, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has frequently criticized the bill’s cost and scope, refused Monday to commit to voting on the bill by the end of the year.

Democrats hope that the passage of both bills will increase Biden’s approval ratings, which have declined over the past several months. Biden experienced no boost after the passage of the infrastructure bill earlier this month, and while some recent polls have shown some slight improvement to his net approval rating, he remains underwater in the RealClearPolitics and 538 polling aggregates.

This comes as Republicans have grown increasingly bullish on their chances to take over Congress after the 2022 midterm elections. Recent polling has shown the GOP with a lead over Democrats in the generic congressional ballot polls, an indicator of how a party will perform overall in the general election nationwide.