House Passes Stimulus Bill, Faces Uncertainty over Minimum Wage

The House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Saturday. The bill includes measures related to increased funding for COVID testing, school funding, stimulus checks, and assistance for  rent and food. In addition, it extends unemployment benefits and provides money to states to fund their liabilities.

The bill also contains language to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next several years. However, this clause will have to be removed if the Senate wishes to pass the bill under reconciliation, which would allow the bill to become law with only 51 votes, rather than the 60 votes needed to end debate and pass the bill. The Senate parliamentarian ruled this past week that the minimum wage increase could not be included in a reconciliation bill because it did not directly affect government revenues and expenses. Proponents of the minimum wage increase, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), argued that the minimum wage increase would increase government revenue through more taxes because of the increased wages paid and is thus eligible.

Republicans in the Senate have signaled opposition to the minimum wage increase, saying it will increase unemployment as employers would lay of workers for whom they could no longer afford their wages. Some moderate Democratic senators have also signaled opposition, such as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who has said that the $15 minimum is too high for his state’s employers to pay for many of their workers.

President Biden has seemed to concede that the minimum wage clause will not be included in the reconciliation bill, promising to take it up as a stand alone bill in the future.

 

General Election Campaign Begins as Biden Becomes Presumptive Nominee

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the
presumptive Democratic nominee this month

Former Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee this month after rival Sen. Bernie Sanders suspended his active campaign and endorsed his rival. Interestingly, Sanders announced he will remain on the ballot to collect delegates that he can use to influence platform and rule committee decisions during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Milwaukee later this year (which could be heavily altered or even canceled depending on how coronavirus pandemic evolves).

Biden has announced his vice presidential search committee, as well as beginning to form a transition team for if he should defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November.

Sanders Leads Nationally as Biden Triumphs in South Carolina

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has captured frontrunner status in the Democratic race, though it may not be enough to win enough delegates before the convention in Milwaukee in a few months.

That may be even more likely after today’s vote, as former Vice President Joe Biden scored a strong victory in the South Carolina primary Saturday. Long touted as his firewall, Biden seemed to be danger just last week of losing the primary to a surging Sanders. Biden, with around 90% of the precincts in, has just under 50% of the vote, with second-place Sanders just under 20%.

Even with Biden’s South Carolina victory and the possibility of momentum heading into Super Tuesday this week, Sanders holds a healthy lead on national polling, which was Biden’s claim just last month. According to the RealClearPolitics poll aggregator, Sanders leads Biden 29.6% to 18.8%, with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg coming in third with 16.4%. Bloomberg, who will only be on state ballots starting on Super Tuesday, surged in polling this past month as he spent hundreds of millions of dollars on television and online advertisements. His momentum has slowed, however, amid a poor first debate performance and a somewhat resurgent Biden, whose disastrous Iowa and New Hampshire results had some wondering if he would leave the race.

While Sanders maintains the lead in national polling and in certain Super Tuesday states, there is a strong chance neither he or any other candidate will reach a majority of delegates on the first ballot. If that happens, delegates can choose who to be their nominee at the convention, possibly setting up a protracted and heated battle to face Trump in November.

Elizabeth Warren Drops in polls, Pete Buttigieg Rises

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) standing in the polls has fallen this month with the senator now trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire. In her place, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has taken her place as the rising star of the Democratic race, polling first place in both states and remaining in fourth place nationally, behind Biden, Sanders, and Warren. They are the only candidates polling in the double digits; Sen. Kamala Harris, the fifth highest polling candidate, is at 3.8% (D-CA) in national polls.

Democratic Field Narrows, Republican’s Grows by One

The 2020 Presidential field continues to change as several Democrats drop out of the race, while one Republican joins in an attempt to deny President Donald Trump the GOP nomination.

This month, four major candidates have dropped out of the Democratic race: former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton, and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. None of the candidates managed to gain major support during any of the campaign, with Moulton never making the debate stage and Gillibrand (the highest-polling one of the group) only scoring 3% in one poll and usually averaging only 1%.

This still leaves well over a dozen candidates in the mix, though only three, former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warrant, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, poll in the double digits. The rest, including relatively high polling candidates California Senator Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are in the single digits.

However, recent polls have indicated that any of those candidates has a polling advantage over Trump in the general, though the election is still over a year away, and the political environment can easily shift more in favor (or even less in favor) of Trump’s reelection prospects.

Meanwhile, former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois announced a longshot bid to challenge Trump for the GOP primary this week. Walsh, once a strong Trump supporter and a conservative firebrand, has come under fire for controversial and racially tinged statements made in his past.

Democrats Debate Again, 10 Yesterday and 10 Today

The race for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 continues after ten Democratic candidates met in Detroit last night for the second primary debate, with ten more to go tonight.

Last night’s debate featured the two highest-polling progressive candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Other relatively high-polling candidates (though still in the single digits) were South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

The debate demonstrated sharp differences between the progressive wing, led by Sanders and Warren, and the relatively more moderate wing, including Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Some of these differences included whether to abolish private health insurance in favor of government-run insurance, providing free health care to those residing in the US illegally, and decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Places of agreement between both camps included providing a government-run insurance program (regardless of whether private insurance would still be allowed), instituting more gun control, and placing higher taxes on wealthy Americans.

Ten more candidates will debate tonight, including two other high-polling candidates, the frontrunner former Vice President Joe Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden is considered relatively more moderate than many of the other candidates (though still liberal by national standards), and will likely face progressive criticisms from Harris and other candidates.