GOP Makes Inroads, Democrats Play Defense Ahead of Election Day

A Republican red wave appears more likely than it did during the summer, with just one week before election day on November 8. While summer polls showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot and improving approval numbers for President Joe Biden, recent polling aggregates have Republicans with a lead in the generic ballot, with RealClearPolitics showing the GOP with a 2.9 lead.

Polling of certain battleground districts also show possible trouble for Democrats, with perhaps the most notable example being Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York’s 17th Congressional District. Maloney had decided to run in the more Democratic 17th, but polling shows he still faces a competitive race against Republican Michael Lawler in a district that voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. 538, an election prediction website, still gives Maloney an edge in the district with a 70% chance to win, but the competitive nature of the district signals possible danger for Democrats in once-thought safe seats.

Other once-thought safe Democratic-held seats that face stronger than expected GOP opposition include New York’s gubernatorial race, Oregon’s gubernatorial race, and Washington’s US Senate race.

Democrats hope that they can maintain Senate control by keeping Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in Democratic hands, while also flipping Pennsylvania. With the exception of Nevada, Democrats had held polling leads in all states until last week, when Republican nominees began to gain momentum in the polls. Democrats maintain a polling advantage in Arizona, though Republican Blake Masters has closed the gap in recent days against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

 

How the Trump-Biden Race is Shaping Up on Election Day Eve

While former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid lead in nationwide polling and more moderate but consistent leads in several crucial battleground states, few observers are completely counting out President Donald Trump's ability to pull off a win in tomorrow's election, remembering his victory in 2016 that flew in the face of battleground state polling.

This how we see the state of the race currently:

In this scenario Biden is favored to sweep the upper Great Lakes region, retaking Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 and maintaining Minnesota in the Democratic column. In addition to Minnesota, Biden seems in a strong position to win all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, with New Hampshire and Nevada the other two Trump may have a decent chance to peel off, but likely only if he already has enough electoral votes from other battleground states.

Trump meanwhile has to content with the increasing competitiveness of traditionally solid Republican states of (in order of decreasing chance of a Democratic win) Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. 

Of course, the traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, and Iowa remain a tossup for either candidate, with Trump having a clearer polling advantage in the latter two than in Florida. However, Trump's polling strength among Hispanics in Florida along with the relatively strong Republican performance in the state in the 2018 midterm election could point to the ability to keep the state red.

North Carolina, a traditionally Republican state, has continued to poll with essentially no advantage to either candidate, though its competitive Senate race has seen an advantage for the Democrat over the incumbent Republican. Pennsylvania, considered a battleground but also a consistent Democratic state except for 2016, has given Biden a slightly stronger lead, but still can be won by Trump.

Nebraska and Maine, which split their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large winner, may both have split votes this election, the first time both states have split their votes in the same election. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, home of Omaha and portions of suburban Sarpy County, is tilting toward Biden in polling. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is a tossup, with perhaps a slight lean toward Trump. Trump won both last year.

If we had to choose who will in each state/congressional district:

Agree? Disagree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Images from 270towin.com

Coronavirus Cases Trending Down in US, Reemerge in Other Countries

Global coronavirus cases have topped 25 million worldwide as countries around the world struggle to contain the outbreak which began late last year in Hubei Province, China, with worldwide deaths currently numbered at 843,000. France and Spain are among the countries to report a resurgence in their COVID-19 numbers, with the latter being one of the centers of the outbreak when it began its worldwide spread in early 2020.

The United States, the worldwide leader in coronavirus cases and deaths, has seen some encouraging signs as the summer nears its end. New York and New Jersey continue to have low numbers of cases and deaths after suffering at the start of the pandemic in the US, and the later hotspots of Texas, Florida, and Arizona have seen their case and death numbers drop off drastically since their peak in July. However, other areas of the country continue to suffer outbreaks, often linked to mass gatherings such as parties. Colleges and universities have clamped down on such gatherings, with some deciding to cancel in-person classes after attempting to reopen for the semester.

Trump Trails Biden as Race Heats Up

Incumbent President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden by 9.6 percentage points, according to the nationwide poll aggregate from RealClearPolitics. This follows weeks of declining approval ratings for Trump as public disapproval grew over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests and unrest that followed the death of George Floyd.

Biden himself has done little campaigning, which has consisted of producing videos in the candidate’s house, often with interviews with other Democratic politicians. Trump, on the other hand, has begun a return to active campaigning, hosting his first in-person rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma last week. The attendance at the rally was markedly less than some of the other president’s rallies.

In addition to his nationwide polling lag, Trump is behind Biden in all of the battleground states, though often not as much as he is in national polling. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by 6.2 points, 8.6 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in Arizona, 6.8 points in Florida, and 6.0 points in Pennsylvania. Trump won all of these states in 2016, all by single digits or by less than a point.